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Finally, a book that not only explains the relationship between investing and chaos theory--the cutting-edge dicipline that Business Week says will "revitalize the money-management industry"--but also shows readers how to use the theory to master the financial markets. Illustrated.
The study of chaotic systems has become a major scientific pursuit in recent years, shedding light on the apparently random behaviour observed in fields as diverse as climatology and mechanics. InThe Essence of Chaos Edward Lorenz, one of the founding fathers of Chaos and the originator of its seminal concept of the Butterfly Effect, presents his own landscape of our current understanding of the field. Lorenz presents everyday examples of chaotic behaviour, such as the toss of a coin, the pinball's path, the fall of a leaf, and explains in elementary mathematical strms how their essentially chaotic nature can be understood. His principal example involved the construction of a model of a board sliding down a ski slope. Through this model Lorenz illustrates chaotic phenomena and the related concepts of bifurcation and strange attractors. He also provides the context in which chaos can be related to the similarly emergent fields of nonlinearity, complexity and fractals. As an early pioneer of chaos, Lorenz also provides his own story of the human endeavour in developing this new field. He describes his initial encounters with chaos through his study of climate and introduces many of the personalities who contributed early breakthroughs. His seminal paper, "Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wing in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?" is published for the first time.
The book represents the first attempt to systematically deal with the use of deep neural networks to forecast chaotic time series. Differently from most of the current literature, it implements a multi-step approach, i.e., the forecast of an entire interval of future values. This is relevant for many applications, such as model predictive control, that requires predicting the values for the whole receding horizon. Going progressively from deterministic models with different degrees of complexity and chaoticity to noisy systems and then to real-world cases, the book compares the performances of various neural network architectures (feed-forward and recurrent). It also introduces an innovative and powerful approach for training recurrent structures specific for sequence-to-sequence tasks. The book also presents one of the first attempts in the context of environmental time series forecasting of applying transfer-learning techniques such as domain adaptation.
The present work investigates global politics and political implications of social science and management with the aid of the latest complexity and chaos theories. Until now, deterministic chaos and nonlinear analysis have not been a focal point in this area of research. This book remedies this deficiency by utilizing these methods in the analysis of the subject matter. The authors provide the reader a detailed analysis on politics and its associated applications with the help of chaos theory, in a single edited volume.
Computer Science Workbench is a monograph series which will provide you with an in-depth working knowledge of current developments in computer technology. Every volume in this series will deal with a topic of importance in computer science and elaborate on how you yourself can build systems related to the main theme. You will be able to develop a variety of systems, including computer software tools, computer graphics, computer animation, database management systems, and computer-aided design and manufacturing systems. Computer Science Work bench represents an important new contribution in the field of practical computer technology. Tosiyasu L. Kunii Preface With the advent of digital computers some five decades ago and the wide spread use of computer networks recently, we have gained enormous power in gathering information and manufacturing. Yet, this increase in comput ing power has not given us freedom in a real sense, we are increasingly enslaved by the very machine we built for gaining freedom and efficiency. Making machines to serve mankind is an essential issue we are facing. Building human-centered systems is an imperative task for scientists and engineers in the new millennium. The topic of human-centered servant modules covers a vast area. In our projects we have focused our efforts on developing theories and techn!ques based on fuzzy theories. Chapters 2 to 12 in this book collectively deal with the theoretical, methodological, and applicational aspects of human centered systems. Each chapter presents the most recent research results by the authors on a particular topic.
Readership: Undergraduates and researchers in probability and statistics; applied, pure and financial mathematics; economics; chaos.
Chaos exists in systems all around us. This introduction draws in philosophy, literature, and maths to explain Chaos Theory, showing the variety of its applications in the real world, from technology to global warming, politics, and even gambling on the stock market.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
In recent decades, turbulence has evolved into a very active field of theoretical physics. The origin of this development is the approach to turbulence from the point of view of deterministic dynamical systems, and this book shows how concepts developed for low dimensional chaotic systems are applied to turbulent states. This book centers around a number of important simplified models for turbulent behavior in systems ranging from fluid motion (classical turbulence) to chemical reactions and interfaces in disordered systems. The theory of fractals and multifractals now plays a major role in turbulence research, and turbulent states are being studied as important dynamical states of matter occurring also in systems outside the realm of hydrodynamics. The book contains simplified models of turbulent behavior, notably shell models, coupled map lattices, amplitude equations and interface models.
This authoritative book presents a comprehensive account of the essential roles of nonlinear dynamic and chaos theories in understanding, modeling, and forecasting hydrologic systems. This is done through a systematic presentation of: (1) information on the salient characteristics of hydrologic systems and on the existing theories for their modeling; (2) the fundamentals of nonlinear dynamic and chaos theories, methods for chaos identification and prediction, and associated issues; (3) a review of the applications of chaos theory in hydrology; and (4) the scope and potential directions for the future. This book bridges the divide between the deterministic and the stochastic schools in hydrology, and is well suited as a textbook for hydrology courses.