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"What are the odds against winning the Lotto, The Weakest Link, or Who Wants to be a Millionaire? The answer lies in the science of probability, yet many of us are unaware of how this science works. Every day, people make judgements on a wide variety of situations where chance plays a role, including buying insurance, betting on horse-racing, following medical advice - even carrying an umbrella. In Taking Chances, John Haigh guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better-informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on top television shows, plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers."--BOOK JACKET.
Mathematics was only one area of interest for Gerolamo Cardano ― the sixteenth-century astrologer, philosopher, and physician was also a prolific author and inveterate gambler. Gambling led Cardano to the study of probability, and he was the first writer to recognize that random events are governed by mathematical laws. Published posthumously in 1663, Cardano's Liber de ludo aleae (Book on Games of Chance) is often considered the major starting point of the study of mathematical probability. The Italian scholar formulated some of the field's basic ideas more than a century before the better-known correspondence of Pascal and Fermat. Although his book had no direct influence on other early thinkers about probability, it remains an important antecedent to later expressions of the science's tenets.
Chance fills every day of our lives and affects every decision we make. Yet, for something woven so closely into the fabric of our being, we are not very good at thinking about uncertainty and risk. In this lively and engaging book, Andrew C. A. Elliott asks why this is so. He picks at the threads and, in showing how our world is built on probability rather than certainty, he identifies five obstacles to thinking about uncertainty that confuse us time after time. Elliott takes us into the casino, but this is not an invitation to gamble. He looks at financial markets, but this is not a guide to investment. There's discussion of health, but this is not a medical book. He touches on genetics and evolution, and music-making, and writing, because chance is at work there too. Entering many different fields, What are the Chances of That? is always following the trail of chance and randomness. One purpose of the book is to go cross-country, to show that there are connected ways of thinking that disrespect boundaries and cut across the domains of finance, and gambling, and genetics, and public health, and creativity. Through it, one visits the vantage points that give a broad view of the landscape and sees how these different areas of life and knowledge are connected - through chance. What are the Chances of That? discusses chance and the importance of understanding how it affects our lives. It goes beyond a mathematical approach to the subject, showing how our thinking about chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history and culture, and only relatively recently by the mathematical theory of probability. In considering how we think about uncertainty, Elliott proposes five “dualities” that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise.
In the year 1716 Abraham de Moivre published his Doctrine of Chances, in which the subject of Mathematical Probability took several long strides forward. A few years later came his Treatise of Annuities. When the third (and final) edition of the Doctrine was published in 1756 it appeared in one volume together with a revised edition of the work on Annuities. It is this latter two-volumes-in-one that is presented here in an exact photographic reprint, with a series of problems of progressive interest, followed by full solutions and an afterword by H.M. Walker.
What goes on in some of the sharpest minds on earth? Dirk Jan ten Geuzendam has collected a new series of intimate portraits of the top grandmasters of chess, winning the confidence of Garry Kasparov, Miguel Najdorf, Vishy Anand, Judit Polgar, David Bronstein, Hikaru Nakamura and many others. Anyone attracted by the mystique of the royal game will love the behind-the-scenes stories about the masters? struggle to win, their fear of losing, and the striking difference between the European and the American chess scene.
The role of chance changed in the nineteenth century, and American literature changed with it. Long dismissed as a nominal concept, chance was increasingly treated as a natural force to be managed but never mastered. New theories of chance sparked religious and philosophical controversies while revolutionizing the sciences as probabilistic methods spread from mathematics, economics, and sociology to physics and evolutionary biology. Chance also became more visible in everyday life, as Americans attempted to control its power through weather forecasting, insurance policies, military strategy, and financial dealings. Uncertain Chances shows how the rise of chance shaped the way nineteenth-century American writers confronted questions of doubt and belief. Poe's detective fiction critiques probabilistic methods; Melville's works struggle to vindicate moral action under conditions of chance; Douglass and other African American authors fight against statistical racism; Thoreau learns to appreciate the play between nature's randomness and order; and Dickinson works faithfully to render poetically the affective experience of chance-surprise. These and other nineteenth-century writers dramatize the inescapable dangers and wonderful possibilities of chance. Their writings even help to navigate extremes that remain with us today--fundamentalism and relativism, determinism and chaos, terrorism and risk-management, the rational confidence of the Enlightenment and the debilitating doubts of modernity.
Using game theory and examples of actual games people play, Nobel laureate Manfred Eigen and Ruthild Winkler show how the elements of chance and rules underlie all that happens in the universe, from genetic behavior through economic growth to the composition of music. To illustrate their argument, the authors turn to classic games--backgammon, bridge, and chess--and relate them to physical, biological, and social applications of probability theory and number theory. Further, they have invented, and present here, more than a dozen playable games derived from scientific models for equilibrium, selection, growth, and even the composition of RNA.