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This book is a collection of invited and selected papers from the Singapore Economic Policy Forum 2009 around a central theme, Challenges Facing Singapore in the Post-Crisis Era and Policy Responses. There are very few books on the Singapore economy. This one is largely non-technical in nature and brings the reader up to speed on the key issues facing policymakers in Singapore in the wake of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The contributors are all experts in their field and have extensive experience of the Singapore economy. The book also offers an international dimension to look at the role of China in the Asian economy and the impact on Asia of reforms to the international financial architecture.
The global credit crisis of 2008 2009 was the most serious shock to the world economy in fully 80 years. It was for the world as a whole what the Asian crisis of 1997 1998 was for emerging markets: a profoundly alarming wake-up call. By laying bare the fragility of global markets, it raised troubling questions about the operation of our deeply integrated world economy. It cast doubt on the efficacy of the dominant mode of light-touch financial regulation and more generally on the efficacy of the prevailing commitment to economic and financial liberalization. It challenged the managerial capacity of inherited institutions of global governance. And it augured a changing of the guard, pointing to the possibility that the economies that had been the leaders in the "global growth stakes" in the past might no longer be the leaders in the future. What the crisis means for reform, however, is still unclear. This book brings together leading scholars and policy analysts to describe and weigh the options. Successive chapters assess options for the global financial system, the global trading system, the international monetary system, and the Group of 20 and global governance. A final set of chapters contemplates the policy challenges for emerging markets and the advanced economies in the wake of the financial crisis.
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.
Why has the economy of Latin America responded more positively than Asia, Europe or the United States after being hit by the recent global financial crisis? Three years after the worst of the crisis, Latin America's GDP is 25 percent higher than its precrisis level. José De Gregorio, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile from 2007 to 2011, tells the story of how Latin America has responded to the crisis with a perspective that only an insider can have. De Gregorio focuses on the seven largest economies of the region, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela (90 percent of the region's output). He argues that Latin America was resilient because of good macroeconomic policies, strong financial systems, and "a bit of luck."
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007–08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses registered, accompanied by long-lasting capital and total factor productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. Underscoring the importance of macroprudential policies and effective supervision, countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis. Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. Unprecedented and exceptional policy actions taken after the crisis helped mitigate countries’ postcrisis output losses.
Foreword: A Perennial Goal: Coupling Prudence with Innovation (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); MAS Leaders; List of Abbreviations; Evolution of a Central Bank: Establishing the Monetary Authority of Singapore (Hon Sui Sen); Why a Currency Board? (Goh Keng Swee); Prudence, Stability, Confidence: The Fundamentals of Good Government and Sound Central Banking (Goh Chok Tong); Macroeconomic Policies in Singapore: Principles, Milestones and Future Prospects (Richard Hu); Credibility, Confidence, Dynamism: MAS in the New Economic and Financial Landscape (Lee Hsien Loong); MAS at Forty: Past Contributions, Future Challenges (Lee Hsien Loong); Building Credibility (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); Monetary Policy and Reserve Management: How to Cope with Inflation with Particular Reference to Singapore (Michael Wong Pakshong); Which of the Monetary Aggregates Does MAS Watch? (Goh Keng Swee); Why a Strong Singapore Dollar? (Goh Keng Swee); Exchange Rate Policy: Philosophy and Conduct over the Past Decade (Teh Kok Peng and Tharman Shanmugaratnam); MAS Merges with Board of Commissioners of Currency, Singapore (Lim Hng Kiang); Asian Monetary Integration: Will It Ever Happen? (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); Getting in All the Cracks or Targeting the Cracks? Securing Financial Stability in the Post-Crisis Era (Ravi Menon); How Singapore Manages Its Reserves (Ravi Menon); Financial Regulation and Supervision: Supervision of a Regional Financial Centre (Michael Wong Pakshong); Regulation and Development of the General Insurance Industry (Law Song Keng); Strengthening the Framework for Banking Supervision (Goh Keng Swee); Recent Turbulence in the Stockbroking Industry and Lessons for Supervision (J Y Pillay); The Role of a Financial Futures Exchange (J Y Pillay); The Regulation and Development of Financial Markets (Richard Hu); Derivatives Trading and the Importance of Risk Management in Banks (Lee Ek Tieng); New Approach to Regulating and Developing Singapore's Financial Sector (Lee Hsien Loong); Financial Supervision in the New Millennium (Koh Yong Guan); Separation of Financial and Non-Financial Activities of Banking Groups (Lee Hsien Loong); Capital Markets in the New Economy (Lee Hsien Loong); Regulating the Capital Markets: Making Market Discipline Work (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); Consolidation and Liberalisation: Building World-Class Banks (Lee Hsien Loong); Deposit Insurance and Managing the Liberalisation Process (Lim Hng Kiang); Best Practices in Insurance Regulation (Lee Hsien Loong); Sensible Rules, Effective Supervision, Industry Partnership (Heng Swee Keat); Singapore's Approach to the Regulation of Capital Markets (Ravi Menon); Ensuring Strong Anchors in Our Banking System (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); Building a Culture of Trust in the Financial Industry (Ravi Menon); FinTech -- Harnessing its Power, Managing its Risks (Ravi Menon); Singapore's Financial Centre: Resilience, Dynamism, Trust (Ravi Menon); A Flexible Framework for the Regulation of Payment Systems and Payment Service Providers (Ong Ye Kung); Banking Liberalisation's Next Chapter: Digital Banks (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); Financial Centre Development: Development of Singapore as a Financial Centre (Hon Sui Sen); Inauguration of the Institute of Banking and Finance (Hon Sui Sen); Fund Management in Singapore: New Directions (Lee Hsien Loong); Building a Premier Exchange (Lee Hsien Loong); The Future of the Financial Sector in Singapore -- Riding the Challenges, Emerging Stronger (Goh Chok Tong); Key Issues in Asian Financial Markets (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); Singapore as a Global Insurance Marketplace (Ravi Menon); Building Capabilities for the Financial Sector of Tomorrow (Tharman Shanmugaratnam); Positioning for a Technology Driven Future (Heng Swee Keat); Singapore FinTech: Innovation, Inclusion, Inspiration (Ravi Menon); Green Finance for a Sustainable World (Ong Ye Kung); Harnessing the Power of Finance for a Sustainable Future (Ravi Menon)