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The empirical research of the relation between deficits and inflation can be conducted through Granger-causality tests. The tests made for Portugal, for the 1979:1 1994:4 period, show some evidence that deficits cause inflation. This is true in a bivariate model and also in a trivariate model which includes the monetary base (or even the money stock measured by M2). The stock of internal direct debt is used to build a proxy for the deficit. There is no evidence that inflation causes the deficits and the same is true for the monetization hypothesis, so that one can assume that the relation between deficits and inflation is probably through aggregate demand.
Developing countries across the globe have always shared the misfortune of being unable to finance their proposed government expenditures using their public revenues. As a result, a budget deficit is a common feature of all underdeveloped nations, to which Bangladesh is no exception. Conventional economic notion asserts that rising gap between government's expenditure and revenue creates pressure to enhance money supply in the economy which in turn may trigger the domestic rate of inflation. In addition, monetary policy tools are also referred to be ineffective in controlling domestic inflation. Thus, the objective of the paper is to identify the causal relationships between Inflation, money supply and budget deficit in the context of Bangladesh incorporating relevant data from 1980 to 2014. Granger Causality test and Vector Error-Correction Model approach was used to identify the long-run and short-run causalities between the variables. The results coincide with the conventional economic conjecture as a unidirectional causality is found to be running from budget deficit to inflation in the short-run while no causality is found between money supply and inflation in both the short-run and the long-run.
The paper develops a model of inflationary finance that defines the fiscal deficit as a function of the virtual deficit—a deficit that would be observed if inflation were zero. It studies the negative relationship between the inflation rate and real government expenditures—the Patinkin effect. The model outperforms others in explaining four-digit inflation rates that never explode into hyperinflation. It also explains how apparently expansionist fiscal policies end in real deficits that are small and compatible with the small amount of seigniorage that can be collected at high inflation rates. Finally, it applies the model to the case of Brazil.
Macroeconomic theory postulates that fiscal deficits cause inflation. Yet empirical research has had limited success in uncovering this relationship. This paper reexamines the issue in light of broader data and a new modeling approach that incorporates two key features of the theory. Unlike previous studies, we model inflation as nonlinearly related to fiscal deficits through the inflation tax base and estimate this relationship as intrinsically dynamic, using panel techniques that explicitly distinguish between short- and long-run effects of fiscal deficits. Results spanning 107 countries over 1960-2001 show a strong positive association between deficits and inflation among high-inflation and developing country groups, but not among low-inflation advanced economies.
We estimate the low-frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation and pay special attention to its potential time variation by estimating a time-varying VAR model for U.S. data from 1900 to 2011. We find the strongest relationship neither in times of crisis nor in times of high public deficits, but from the mid-1960s up to 1980. Our results suggest that the low-frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation is strongly related to the conduct of monetary policy and its interaction with fiscal policy after World War II.
We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.
Macroeconomic theory postulates that fiscal deficits cause inflation. Yet empirical research has had limited success in uncovering this relationship. This paper reexamines the issue in light of broader data and a new modeling approach that incorporates two key features of the theory. Unlike previous studies, we model inflation as nonlinearly related to fiscal deficits through the inflation tax base and estimate this relationship as intrinsically dynamic, using panel techniques that explicitly distinguish between short- and long-run effects of fiscal deficits. Results spanning 107 countries over 1960-2001 show a strong positive association between deficits and inflation among high-inflation and developing country groups, but not among low-inflation advanced economies.
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.