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This book, the result of a joint project between the OECD Development Centre and the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), examines the policies of a group of major Latin American countries faced with large inflows.
Jointly issued by the OECD Development Centre & the UN Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean (UN/ECLAC)
This paper deals with the relationship between capital inflow and investment during the most recent surge in foreign capital into the Chilean economy. The effects on investment of capital inflow are analyzed with a microeconomic model that emphasizes differential impacts on tradables and non-tradables. Empirically the paper deploys cointegration techniques to study the long-run relationships and an error-correction model for the short-term behavior of investment. The model allows interpretation of developments in the Chilean economy in the 1990s.
This paper draws a link between international capital flows and the real options approach to investment by extending a model of real estate investment. It explains gradual investment, investment booms, and investment during recessions and emphasizes sunk costs, uncertainty, and the value of waiting. The optimal waiting time increases as foreign borrowing becomes more expensive because higher returns are required to cover the sunk costs of investing. The lower the initial level of profitability, the more likely investment will be sequential; conversely, a relatively high initial rate of return will be associated with simultaneous investment.
We reassess the connection between capital account openness and capital flows in an empirical framework that is grounded in theory and makes use of previously unexplored variation in the data. We demonstrate how our theory-consistent regressions may overcome some ubiquitous measurement problems in the literature by relying on interaction terms between financial openness and traditional push-pull factors. Within our proposed framework, we ask: what can be said robustly about the effect of capital account restrictions on capital flows? Our results warrant against over-interpreting the existing cross-country evidence as we find very few robust relationships between capital account restrictiveness and various types of capital inflows. Countries with a higher degree of financial openness are more susceptible to some, but by no means all, push and pull factors. Overall, the results are still consistent with a complex set of tradeoffs faced by policymakers, where the ability to shield the domestic economy from volatile capital flow cycles must be weighed against the sources of exogenous risks and potential long run growth effects.
Firms often cite financing constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment. Global capital flows, by bringing in scarce capital, may ease host-country firms' financing constraints. However, if incoming foreign investors borrow heavily from domestic basnks, direct foreign investment (DFI) may exacerbate financing constraints by crowding host country firms out of domestic capital markets. Combininb a unique cross-country firm-level panel with time-series data on restrictions on international transactions and capital flows, we find that different measures of global flows are associated with a reduction in firm-level financing constraints. First, we show that one type of capital inflow--DFI--is associated with a reduction in financing constraints. Second, we test whether restrictions on international transactions affect firms' financing constraints. Our results suggest that only one type of restriction--those on capital account transactions--negatively affect firms' financing constraints. We also show that multinational firms are not financially constrained and do not appear to be sensitive to the level of DFI. This implies that DFI eases financing constraints for non-multinational firms. Finally, we show that DFI only eases financing constraints in the non-G7 countries.
The enhanced access of developing countries to the international financial market since the seventies has been characterized by boom-bust cycles of unfettered external borrowing followed by abrupt financial crises. The first chapter analyzes the macroeconomic effects of volatile capital flows to a developing country. The analysis shows that investment, consumption, and the current account deficit depend positively on the expected availability of external finance. If international investors may unexpectedly decide to reduce their exposure to financial assets issued by the country, the optimal cost of external borrowing should exceed the interest rate paid by domestic residents in the international financial market. In the absence of insurance markets for this type of risk, a tax on capital inflows can be optimal. Recent endogenous growth models characterize a firm's technology as a commodity which is both partly excludable and associated with some production inputs, such as human capital and equipment. The second chapter explores the nature of the link between equipment investment and technology at the plant level in a large sample of Colombian manufacturing establishments. The results support the endogenous growth model's notion that technology is associated with the production inputs. Larger plants that invest more in machinery and equipment and employ higher levels of human capital tend to be more efficient. Models of investment with non-convex costs of adjustment predict that microeconomic time series of investment may be characterized by infrequent investment spurts and prolonged periods of little or no investment. In the third chapter I study the pattern of investment at the plant level in different categories of capital goods. As in the U.S., plant-level investment in Colombia is lumpy, and the probability of observing a large investment episode depends positively on the time elapsed since the latest large investment episode. As a contribution to the literature, I propose and implement two alternative econometric methods for the estimation of a simple model of irreversible investment. The results show that increases in the real exchange rate (pesos per dollar) have a consistently negative effect on investment, regardless of the type of capital good.
"This is a very timely book that brings the reader to the forefront of current research on macroeconomic policy issues in economies subject to sizable capital flows".--Guillermo A. Calvo, University of Maryland.