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Over the past three decades, the price of machinery and equipment fell dramatically relative to other prices in advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Using cross-country and sectoral data, we show that the decline in the relative price of tangible tradable capital goods provided a significant impetus to the capital deepening that took place during the same time period. The broad-based decline in the relative price of machinery and equipment, in turn, was driven by the faster productivity growth in the capital goods producing sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and deeper trade integration, which induced domestic producers to lower prices and increase their efficiency. Our findings suggest an additional channel through which rising trade tensions and sluggish productivity could threaten real investment growth going forward.
Technology and globalization are threatening manufacturing’s traditional ability to deliver both productivity and jobs at a large scale for unskilled workers. Concerns about widening inequality within and across countries are raising questions about whether interventions are needed and how effective they could be. Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development addresses three questions: - How has the global manufacturing landscape changed and why does this matter for development opportunities? - How are emerging trends in technology and globalization likely to shape the feasibility and desirability of manufacturing-led development in the future? - If low wages are going to be less important in defining competitiveness, how can less industrialized countries make the most of new opportunities that shifting technologies and globalization patterns may bring? The book examines the impacts of new technologies (i.e., the Internet of Things, 3-D printing, and advanced robotics), rising international competition, and increased servicification on manufacturing productivity and employment. The aim is to inform policy choices for countries currently producing and for those seeking to enter new manufacturing markets. Increased polarization is a risk, but the book analyzes ways to go beyond focusing on potential disruptions to position workers, firms, and locations for new opportunities. www.worldbank.org/futureofmanufacturing
Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
In the fast-changing policy arena of a country as diverse as India, gauging regional implications of policy shifts is critical but challenging. E3-India is a policy evaluation tool based on the internationally recognized E3ME global model, that allows for iterative quantification of multiple policy options within an integrated economy-energy-environment framework to support wellinformed progressive policy choices at the regional level. This book provides comprehensive coverage of creating and using E3 modeling framework for regional policy analysis, which is available in public domain for the first time in India, addressing existing flagship Government of India policies, including but not limited to the Make in India initiative, Digital India initiative, Automotive Mission Plan, Nationally Determined Commitments under the Paris agreement, and the Atmanirbhar Bharat relief package. These studies have been designed to provide in-depth and lucid insights regarding choices for resource allocation by policymakers, thereby serving as a comprehensive guide for evidence-based policymaking in India.
In this paper we demonstrate the importance of distinguishing capital goods tariffs from other tariffs. Using exposure to a quasi-natural experiment induced by a trade reform in Colombia, we find that firms that have been more exposed to a reduction in intermediate and consumption input or output tariffs do not significantly increase their investment rates. However, firms’ investment rate increase strongly in response to a reduction in capital goods input tariffs. Firms do not substitute capital with labor, but instead also increase employment, especially for production workers. Reduction in other tariff rates do not increase investment and employment. Our results suggest that a reduction in the relative price of capital goods can significantly boost investment and employment and does not seem to lead to a decline in the labor share.
The results of the empirical investigation of Japan and Korea show that the user firms in both countries, represented by car makers, have involved themselves in the technical and entrepreneurial entry into machine tools along with making active investments. As a consequence, they made a considerable contribution to the innovation of machine tools, increasing their competitive advantage as well as the competence of their specialized suppliers.
Manufacturing-led development has provided the traditional model for creating jobs and prosperity. But in the past three decades the conventional pattern of structural transformation has changed, with the services sector growing faster than the manufacturing sector. This raises critical questions about the ability of developing economies to close productivity gaps with advanced economies and to create good jobs for more people. At Your Service? The Promise of Services-Led Development (www.worldbank.org/services-led-development) assesses the scope of a services-driven development model and policy directions that can maximize the model’s potential.
Originally published in 1991, this book looks at the problems of applying Western computer programmes to the developing world, arguing that the difficulties are as much cultural as technological. The author shows that the underlying models for computer applications are made up from interpretations of reality which are closely related to Western scientific, technological and cultural development originating from the Renaissance. The book includes a case study of an Egyptian manufacturing company, which reveals the actual problems encountered in the process of computerization.
A real imports of capital and intermediate goods declined sharply for highlyindebted countries in the 1980s, these economies were faced with the need tosubstitute previously imported factors of production with domestic capital and labor. The study empirically analyzes the degree of import dependence of twelve developing countries. Estimates of the short-run elasticity of substitution characterize both imported capital and intermediate goods to behave like complements in the production process in the developing countries. Long-run substitution elasticites differ considerably among the group of economies, especially for imported machinery and equipment. The results indicate that inward-oriented strategies have not achieved the aim of reducing the import dependence of the developing economies. In order to visualize theimplications of the differing degree of import dependence, a partial equilibrium econometric model is used to analyze the reaction of the trade account on external shocks and domestic policies in Columbia and Ecuador. Simulations show that the dependence on imported production means can transform an "adjustment with growth" of the external account intoan "adjustment or growth" controversy.