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September 1998 Foreign direct investment and, more recently, short-term debt and portfolio flows have become important parts of private capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Private flows have increased in response to reform efforts, the buildup of reserves, and prospective membership in the European Union. Private capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have taken off in recent years. Foreign direct investment was the most important such flow from 1991-97, but since 1993 short-term debt and portfolio flows have also been important. The increase in these potentially more volatile short-term flows raises some questions about sustainability and vulnerability. Perhaps more than in other developing countries, reform efforts appear to be the most important determinant of private flows to the region. Private flows also have responded positively to the buildup of reserves (a proxy for improvements in perceived creditworthiness) and to prospective membership in the European Union (reflecting greater economic integration with the West and a greater commitment to reform). Official flows have been associated with the financing of fiscal deficits and appear to have led, rather than followed, countries' reform efforts. This paper-a joint product of the Economic Policy Division, Poverty Reducation and Economic Management Network; and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region-was prepared for the National Bureau for Economic Research study, Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, organized by Sebastian Edwards. The authors may be contacted at [email protected] or [email protected].
Comprising 19 commissioned articles, this collection addresses the global issues of volatility in equity and foreign exchange markets and the regulatory scene in developed and emerging markets.
This paper documents the scale of capital flight from Russia, compares it with that observed in other countries, and reviews policy options. The evidence from other countries suggests that capital flight can be reversed once reforms take hold. The paper argues that capital flight from Russia can only be curbed through a medium-term reform strategy aimed at improving governance and macroeconomic performance, and strengthening the banking system. Capital controls result in costly distortions and should gradually be phased out as part of that medium-term strategy.
Capital flight may undermine economic growth and the effectiveness of debt relief and foreign aid. This paper is the first attempt to test whether unsound macroeconomic policies or weak institutions lead to capital flight, using panel data for a large set of developing, emerging market and transition countries. In addition, the paper tests the revolving door hypothesis that links debt accumulation and capital flight, and analyzes the contribution of institutions to several channels in this relationship.
Economic Lessons from the Transition focuses on major transitions in the 1990s: the transition from central planning and communism to market capitalism and the global integration of national financial systems. The transitions were supposed to raise most peoples' standard of living; instead they dramatically worsened the lives of most people in the countries involved. While most attempts to explain this failure focus on policies, the authors of this book argue that failure of economic theory to fully understand these transitions has led to bad policies that made the transitions unnecessarily painful and costly. The book suggests answers to the following questions: How should basic economic theory as taught in introductory economics courses be revised in light of the failure of market-oriented economics to effect a successful transition in so many former communist economies? Could the theory be revised and presented in a different manner? How can basic economic theory be used to help explain the past failures in understanding transition problems and to avoid future mistakes? This volume is a "must read" for all who teach economics or apply economics to the real world.
Bringing together an international and multidisciplinary group of experts, this is the first comprehensive volume to analyze conglomerates and economic groups in developing countries and transition economies. Using sixteen in-depth case studies it provides a comparative framework for the study of contemporary process of privatization, economic and