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In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China's inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China's capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the "deeper" causes underlying China's approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China's international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.
Capital controls proved useful for the central planning system, but the growing adverse effects make the reform inevitable. Early reform efforts were focused on relaxing restrictions on foreign exchange availability and embracing for market forces, which led to the establishment of Chinese currency's convertibility on the current account in 1994. The Asian financial crisis disrupted this process. China recently has quietly re-launched this reform. The new measures are directed at loosening up controls over capital account transactions to achieve so-called quot;fundamental convertibilityquot; with full convertibility on the current account but conditional convertibility on the capital account that allows free long-term capital flows but restricts short-term capital flows. The recent reforms feature a strategy of selective liberalisation and China is making progress in reducing the intensity of controls, particularly controls on capital outflow. A new regime has emerged under which transactions in most international assets are freed though a number of capital transactions remain regulated. Meanwhile, China has pro-actively promoted international use of Chinese currency. These developments suggest the beginning of the end of capital controls in China.
This paper assesses the implications of Chinese capital account liberalization for capital flows. Stylized facts from capital account liberalization in advanced and large emerging market economies illustrate that capital account liberalization has historically generated large gross capital in- and outflows, but the direction of net flows has depended on many factors. An econometric portfolio allocation model finds that capital controls significantly dampen cross-border portfolio asset holdings. The model also suggests that capital account liberalization in China may trigger net portfolio outflows as large domestic savings seek to diversify abroad.
This paper reviews the issues involved in moving towards greater exchange rate flexibility and capital account liberalization in China. A more flexible exchange rate regime would allow China to operate a more independent monetary policy, providing a useful buffer against domestic and external shocks. At the same time, weaknesses in China’s financial system suggest that capital account liberalization poses significant risks and should be a lower priority in the short term. This paper concludes that greater exchange rate flexibility is in China’s own interest and that, along with a more stable and robust financial system, it should be regarded as a prerequisite for undertaking a substantial liberalization of the capital account.
In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China`s inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China`s capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the deeper causes underlying China`s approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China`s international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.
Liberalizing China's capital account may impose profound implications on the RMB exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy, Chinese and the world economy. Owing to the scarcity of proper measurements for China's capital controls, rigorous studies on the effectiveness and implications of China's capital controls are limited. We contribute to the literature by creating a new index data set containing de jure and hybrid measurements of the changes in China's capital controls, hoping to inspire a new avenue of research on China's capital controls. Contrasting to other capital control indices that are compiled in yes-or-no style, we quantify the intensity changes of China's capital controls. Our indices reveal a persistent but uneven process of capital account liberalization in China during 1999 and 2012. This paper describes the de jure and hybrid indices, including indices for individual asset categories, gross flows, inflows and outflows, as well as resident and nonresident. Understanding that China usually implements policies step by step in the gradualism style, we extract those small-step information from the lines of the text in IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangement and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) and some supplementary materials from other sources. This allows us to incorporate as detailed and accurate information as possible about China's capital controls.
China has experienced a remarkable transformation since the 1990s. It now boasts the second-largest — some would argue the largest — economy in the world, having evolved from a closed economy into the leading goods-trading nation. China’s economic rise has given it increasing prominence in international monetary and financial governance, but it also exposes China to new risks associated with its integration into the global financial system. Drawing insights from economics and political science, Enter the Dragon: China in the International Financial System takes a broad conceptual approach and tackles the questions that accompany China’s ascendance in international finance: What are the motivations and consequences of China’s effort to internationalize the renminbi? What is the political logic underlying China’s foreign financial policy? What forces have shaped China’s preferences and capacities in global financial governance? Enter the Dragon contributes to the ongoing debate over China’s political interests, its agenda for economic and financial cooperation, and the domestic and international implications of its economic rise. Bringing together experts from both inside and outside of China, this volume argues that China’s rise in the international financial system is a highly complex and political process, and can only be understood by incorporating analysis of domestic and international political economy.
China's increasing role in global economic affairs has placed the country at a crossroads: how many and what types of international capital-market transactions will China permit? How will China's financial system change internally? What kind of relationships will the Chinese government develop with foreign financial institutions, especially with those based in the United States? Can China broker a sustainable partnership with America that will avoid sending economic shock waves throughout the world? Drawing on the contemporary research of prominent international scholars, the experts in this volume outline the trajectory of China's financial markets since the advent of reform and anticipate their uncertain future. Chapter authors and commentators include Geert Bekaert, Loren Brandt, Lee Branstetter, Mary Wadsworth Darby, Michael DeStefano, Barry Eichengreen, Campbell Harvey, Fred Hu, Xiaobo Lu, Christian Lundblad, Ailsa Roell, Daniel Rosen, Shang-Jin Wei, Jialin Yu, and Xiaodong Zhu. The book begins with an overview of the history of financial-sector development, regulation, and performance and then focuses on the banking sector, discussing the progress, challenges, and prospects of current sector reform. Subsequent chapters describe the role of foreign capital in China's development and analyze the changes in capital flows and controls over time; explore various explanations for China's composition of foreign-capital and foreign-exchange policies, particularly the factors shaping China's reliance on foreign direct investment; and provide an international, comparative perspective on the remarkable growth experience of China and the contribution of its institutional environment to that experience. Contributors dispute the belief that stock market listing has done little to reform state-owned enterprises and take a hard look at the exchange rate regime choice for China, considering the potential long-run desirability of flexibility and the appropriate sequencing of reforms in foreign-exchange policy, domestic banking reform, and capital-market openness. The book concludes with a roundtable discussion in which prominent economists, including Peter Garber, Robert Hodrick, John Makin, David Malpass, Frederic Mishkin, and Eswar Prasad, debate the pace of the appreciation of China's currency and the likely consequences of that policy within and outside of China.
This volume contains country experiences explained by policy makers and studies by leading experts on causes and consequences of capital flows as well as policies to control these flows. It addresses portfolio flow issues central to open economies, especially emerging markets.