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In the early 1980s, Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, D.C., developed a system for predicting the outcomes of presidential elections. Studying all elections back to the Civil War (the birth of the current two-party system), he isolated circumstances that are typically associated with victory for the incumbent party. Applying them forward, he has had an unmatched record of predictive success. In the elections of 2004, 2008 and 2012, among others, he called the outcomes correctly before the election year even began. His successes have been widely noted. Hes now, for example, the Election forecasting guru (RealClearPolitics), no ordinary soothsayer, (Agence France Press), and the presidential champion in the realm of predictions (MarylandReporter.com). A Washington Post writer even said Lichtmans system is fool proof, a claim pondered in Chapter 16. Martin Gottlieb, as an editorial writer and political columnist for the Dayton Daily News in Ohio, was floored and fascinated by Lichtmans unparalled successes in the 1986 senatorial elections. Gottlieb began what became career-long coverage of the record of the Lichtman keys. That resulted in a 2006 book with this title. This version is an update, with new chapters on the three subsequent presidential elections. What emerges from Campaigns Dont Count is not merely a way to win at the game of political predictions, but a new understanding of how American politics works, of what drives presidential election outcomes. Hint: It is not campaigns, media manipulation, money, political organization, ideology or any of the other forces that the mediaand the experts who advise themfocus on.
For decades, journalists have called the winners of U.S. presidential elections—often in error—well before the closing of the polls. In Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t, Sharon E. Jarvis and Soo-Hye Han investigate what motivates journalists to call elections before the votes have been tallied and, more importantly, what this and similar practices signal to the electorate about the value of voter participation. Jarvis and Han track how journalists have told the story of electoral participation during the last eighteen presidential elections, revealing how the portrayal of voters in the popular press has evolved over the last half century from that of mobilized partisan actors vital to electoral outcomes to that of pawns of political elites and captives of a flawed electoral system. The authors engage with experiments and focus groups to reveal the effects that these portrayals have on voters and share their findings in interviews with prominent journalists. Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t not only explores the failings of the media but also shows how the story of electoral participation might be told in ways that support both democratic and journalistic values. At a time when professional strategists are pressuring journalists to provide favorable coverage for their causes and candidates, this book invites academics, organizations, the press, and citizens alike to advocate for the voter’s place in the news.
This work incorporates the insights of many of America's foremost analyst of political campaigns. Coverage of a presidential campaign is examined by journalists both from print and television. In addition to staff professionals and journalists, academic experts in various aspects of presidential campaign communication analyze how key communicative components affect campaigns.
For decades, journalists have called the winners of U.S. presidential elections—often in error—well before the closing of the polls. In Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t, Sharon E. Jarvis and Soo-Hye Han investigate what motivates journalists to call elections before the votes have been tallied and, more importantly, what this and similar practices signal to the electorate about the value of voter participation. Jarvis and Han track how journalists have told the story of electoral participation during the last eighteen presidential elections, revealing how the portrayal of voters in the popular press has evolved over the last half century from that of mobilized partisan actors vital to electoral outcomes to that of pawns of political elites and captives of a flawed electoral system. The authors engage with experiments and focus groups to reveal the effects that these portrayals have on voters and share their findings in interviews with prominent journalists. Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t not only explores the failings of the media but also shows how the story of electoral participation might be told in ways that support both democratic and journalistic values. At a time when professional strategists are pressuring journalists to provide favorable coverage for their causes and candidates, this book invites academics, organizations, the press, and citizens alike to advocate for the voter’s place in the news.
Every four years Americans are inundated with campaign activities from candidates attempting to become the next president of the United States. An under-researched area of these campaign activities are campaign visits—rallies, town hall meetings, and candidate meet-and-greets for example. Almost all candidates conduct visits, yet we do not have a good understanding of how they affect voters. Wendland tackles four big questions throughout Campaigns That Matter: 1) Do campaigns matter? 2) Are campaign visits strategic? 3) Do visits help mobilize voters? 4) Do visits impact candidate preference? Using a unique set of data that includes all visits conducted throughout the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential nominating contests, Wendland explores how these visits affected voters compared to traditional measures of advertisements, campaign spending, and momentum. In doing so, Wendland has provided us with a more comprehensive picture of how voters make decisions in the voting booth.
Benoit, Blaney, and Pier apply the functional theory of political campaign discourse to the 1996 presidential campaign. When a citizen casts a vote, he or she makes a decision about which candidate is preferable. There are only three types of rhetorical strategies for persuading voters to believe a candidate is the better choice: acclaiming or self-praise, attacking or criticizing an opponent, and defending or responding to attacks. As they illustrate, acclaims, if accepted by the audience, make the candidate appear better. Attacks can make the opponent seem worse, improving the source's apparent preferability. If attacked, a candidate can attempt to restore—or prevent—lost credibility by defending against that attack. As Benoit, Blaney, and Pier point out, the functional theory of political communication is relatively new, and their book illustrates it with a detailed analysis of the most recent presidential campaign. One of the major strengths of the study is the variety of message forms examined: television spots, debates, talk radio appearances, keynote speeches, acceptance speeches, speeches by spouses, radio addresses, and free television time remarks. It also examines all three parts of the campaign—primary, nominating conventions, and general campaign. This comprehensive analysis of the '96 presidential campaign will be of considerable use to students, scholars, and other researchers dealing with contemporary American electioneering.