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Have you ever wondered why even large companies fail when faced with changes in their environment? Would you be surprised to learn that the average life expectancy of a Fortune 500 company is below 50 years? This book presents findings from 19 case studies in multinational companies such as Siemens, Volkwagen, General Electric, Philips and Deutsche Telekom. René Rohrbeck proposes a Maturity Model to assess how prepared a company is to respond to external (disruptive) change. He uses data from 107 interviews with board members, corporate strategists, innovation managers, and corporate foresight professionals to present and discuss best practices. Using illustrations to show the complex interaction of corporate foresight with other units such as innovation and strategic management, René Rohrbeck provides the reader with rich insights on how to make an organization agile and reactive towards change. For scholars this book proposes multiple hypotheses and frameworks for future research.
The world changes like the patterns in a kaleidoscope: trends expand, contract, break up, melt, disintegrate and disappear, while others are formed. Change – as opposed to stasis – is our normal condition, the only certainty in our lives, hence the need to create tools that provide organizations with the means to tackle change and navigate complexity. We must accept the reality of constant change and be prepared for a heavy shift in perspective: interconnection versus separation, acceleration versus linearity and discontinuity versus continuity. Anticipating the future requires more than the traditional predictive models (forecasting) based on the forward projection of past experiences. Advanced methods use anticipation logic (foresight) and build probable scenarios taking into account weak signals, emerging trends, coexisting presents and potential paths of evolution. Corporate foresight is fundamental to interpret and lead change. The two cornerstones of foresight are organization and management. As concerns organization, the authors advocate the separation of research (oriented to the market of tomorrow) from development (oriented to the market of today), the establishment of a foresight unit and the concentration of research activities mainly on the acquisition and recombination of external know-how. As regards management, after an overview of state-of-the-art literature on forecasting methods, the authors propose the implementation of a "future coverage" methodology, which enables companies to measure and verify the consistency between trends, strategic vision and offered products. These organizational and managing tools are then tested in a case study: the Italian company Eurotech SpA, a leader in the ICT sector.
This is a practical (field) guide to foresight and foresight tools for leaders in business, the public sector and NGOs, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change.
This book sheds light on what has come to be known as corporate foresight and its influence on innovation management. Throughout the book, the contributors examine the practice of corporate foresight and how it may lead to the identification of opportunities for innovation. They also explore the complex processes and conditions that may enable (or impede) the potential of contemporary organizations to capture value from their corporate foresight exercises. Representing an interesting mix of competing ideas and perspectives, the book offers deep insights into the interactive effects of corporate foresight and its contribution to innovation management. This book was originally published as a special issue of Technology Analysis & Strategic Management.
This book provides students and line managers in organizations with the means to create better scenarios and to use them to create winning business strategies. The book covers scenarios such as: economic outlooks; political environments; acquisitions; downsizing, and more.
Since the mid-1900s, large corporations have been using scenarios, strategic planning, and long term action plans to anticipate and prepare for their futures. Large businesses pioneered the methods of foresight for their own use, and those methods have worked very well for them. But... small business is different. The traditional methods for planning for the future didn't fit small business. Small Business Foresight is designed for small businesses. Written by a professional futurist with over 50 years' experience in small business, the tools and methods described and detailed in this book work. They are designed specifically for small business. Whether your business consists of just you, or includes dozens or even hundreds employees, these methods work! In this book, you will learn about the stages of business growth, the forces of change that impact your business, trends that guide the forces, the importance of scenarios (stories about the future and how to build them), the value of strategic thinking and planning, how to create a long term plan for your business based on the strategies you develop, and more. Much more. Small Business Foresight will help you build a plan for the future of your business.
Foresight and Innovation is a guide for readers that are interested about the future. The book introduces a concept of futurist thinking, which includes anticipating, innovating and communicating about the futures. These concepts show how various organizations, all over the world are thinking, communicating and creating a better future.
The Future of Business explores how the commercial world is being transformed by the complex interplay between social, economic and political shifts, disruptive ideas, bold strategies and breakthroughs in science and technology. Over 60 contributors from 21 countries explore how the business landscape will be reshaped by factors as diverse as the modification of the human brain and body, 3D printing, alternative energy sources, the reinvention of government, new business models, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, and the potential emergence of the Star Trek economy.
This study investigates the relationships between corporate foresight and management decision-making processes in organizations. It provides an extensive analysis of extant theories of corporate foresight and strategic management, brings in new insights, and presents an in-depth case study exploration of corporate foresight of a European bank.
Foresight is an area within Futures Studies that focuses on critical thinking concerning long term developments, whether within the public sector or in industry and management, and is something of a sub-section of complexity and network science. This book examines developments in foresight methodologies and relates in its greater part to the work done in the context of the COSTA22 network of the EU on Foresight Methodologies. Foresight is a professional practice that supports significant decisions, and as such it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology). Foresight is practiced across many domains and is not the preserve of specialized ‘futurists’, or indeed of foresight specialists. However, the disciplines of foresight are not well articulated or disseminated across domains, leading to re-inventions and practice that does not make best use of experience in other domains. The methodological development of foresight is an important task that aims at strengthening the pool of the tools available for application, thereby empowering the actors involved in foresight practice. Elaborating further on methodological issues, such as those presented in the present book, enables the actors involved in foresight to begin to critique current practice from this perspective and, thirdly, to begin to design foresight practice. The present trends towards methodological concerns indicates a move from ‘given’ expert-predicted futures to one in which futures are nurtured through a dialogue among “stakeholders.” The book has four parts, each elaborating on a set of aspects of foresight methodologies. After an introductory section, Part II considers theorizing about foresight methodologies. Part III covers system content issues, and Part IV presents foresight tools and approaches.