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This article analyses business cycle co-movement between Australia and 10 major economies in the East-Asian region by using two measures: concordance indices and correlation coefficients. The results from the concordance index suggest that Australia's business cycle is becoming increasingly synchronised with those in East Asia, particularly with China and Japan. The correlation coefficients of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the deviation of real GDP from its trend between Australia and its East-Asian neighbours are also significantly higher since 2000, relative to the correlation coefficients found for the 1990s. The growing importance of East Asia in Australia's economic future implies that the risks facing the economy have changed and Australia needs to engage in more macroeconomic policy dialogues with its neighbouring economies to improve their policy responses.
This paper identifies two transmission mechanisms which might contribute to explaining the well-documented correlation between Australian and foreign business cycles. The first is through exports. We find that the US and Japan have a high output elasticity of demand for Australia's exports. Consequently, their business cycles have a larger impact on Australia's exports than that suggested by their market shares. The second mechanism is through the share market. Both the US and Australian share markets appear to have a significant impact on Australian activity. Evidence is also found that the responses of investment to the share market in the two countries are remarkably similar. Given that the share markets are highly correlated, the similarity in response lags may help to explain the correlation in business cycles.
Asia and Oceania are close geographically, have complementary trade and investment opportunities, and have developed strong business relationships during recent decades. The rapid growth of Asia has provided huge two-way opportunities in trade and investment for businesses in these areas. In the coming decades, continued strong growth in East Asia is likely to be accompanied by even stronger growth in South Asia. Businesses in Oceania are generally better placed than those of Western Europe and North America to take early advantage of the burgeoning opportunities in Asia. Emerging Business and Trade Opportunities Between Oceania and Asia is a comprehensive reference that comprises research on the latest business ventures and developments that are being forged between countries that include Australia, China, and India. This book provides insight into general knowledge about the trade and investment policies and patterns of the two areas and specific knowledge about more targeted trade and investment opportunities. Covering a plethora of topics such as economic development, knowledge management, and start-ups across a wide range of industries that include tourism and hospitality, elderly care services, and information technology sectors, it is ideal for existing and new business entrepreneurs in Oceania and Asia; economic and political commentators; and researchers, academics, and students working in the fields of economics and business-oriented disciplines. Additionally, business professionals and financial investors can use the book to gain a deeper understanding of investment opportunities in areas such as health and tourism, and business consultants can utilize it to develop road maps for their clients of future business opportunities in what will continue to be the largest and most rapidly growing part of the world economy.
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
East and Southeast Asia is a vast and complex region. Its countries have a bewildering array of histories, demographics, economic structures, cultural backgrounds, and global marketing potential. This Handbook unravels the mystery. Each chapter is written by a country specialist and provides a thorough and up-to-date analysis of one of the ESEA countries. Each author follows a consistent model and covers geography and natural resources, the political system, the economic system, the social system, and the marketing environment. Complete chapters are devoted to: Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China and Hong Kong, East Timor, Indonesia, Japan, Korea (North and South), Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Not just a review of current conditions, the Handbook offers prognoses for future marketing and commercial activity in each country. This definitive resource is generously illustrated with maps, figures, and tables, and includes comprehensive references and source materials for each country. It is an essential reference for students, researchers, and practitioners in the global economy.
Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia brings together authoritative essays that identify and examine various initiatives to promote economic integration in Asia.
This volume is a tribute to Professor Hal Hill, one of the most distinguished and internationally renowned Australian development economists and the single most important Australian figure in the networks that bind the Australian and Southeast Asian economics professions over the past four decades. The volume contains twelve original contributions by distinguished scholars who are at the forefront of their own subject areas. The contributions are thematically arranged into three parts to reflect Professor Hill’s wide-ranging research interests: trade policy issues central to the development policy debate, structural change and global economic integration in East Asian economies, and the political economy of development policy.
This paper examines the size and source of external spillovers to Australia and New Zealand based on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) approach. It finds that during the last decade shocks from emerging Asia have become more important than those from the United States in affecting Australia’s business cycle. A 1 percent shock to emerging Asia’s growth is found to shift Australian growth by about 1/3 percent. Furthermore, there is evidence that commodity prices dominate the transmission of shocks from emerging Asia to Australia. The influence of emerging Asia on New Zealand is found to come indirectly through Australia, with Australian shocks transmitting almost "one-on-one" to New Zealand, largely through financial factors.