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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
The global business landscape is changing -- rapidly. The past decade has seen major disruptions like the pandemic, military conflict, and geopolitical tension with severe ramifications for multinational organizations that operate as part of the global economy. It is no longer viable to optimize international business activities in tightly coupled value chains too rigid and inflexible to deal with major disruptions, which often happen unexpectedly. Instead, rapidly changing environmental conditions require adaptive processes in agile structures to deal with major events.In this edited volume, researchers at the Copenhagen Business School, associated international scholars, and talented students attempt to make sense of these global political developments, considering how they may affect global business, and how multinational enterprises can navigate this. The volume includes eighteen distinct chapters addressing different business and policy challenges posed by an uncertain economic future. The possible consequences of these changes are described as the increasing deglobalization of markets and firms between Europe and the rest of the world, which will inevitably affect the structure of global industries, and multinational corporations must find ways to deal effectively with the turbulent conditions. Many of the chapters may frame the issues from a European angle, whereas other contributions present extensive backgrounds outside of European markets including China, India, and the United States. So, while the volume presents 'European Perspectives', it also engages with broader economic, political, and cultural views.
For many observers, the European Union is mired in a deep crisis. Between sluggish growth; political turmoil following a decade of austerity politics; Brexit; and the rise of Asian influence, the EU is seen as a declining power on the world stage. Columbia Law professor Anu Bradford argues the opposite in her important new book The Brussels Effect: the EU remains an influential superpower that shapes the world in its image. By promulgating regulations that shape the international business environment, elevating standards worldwide, and leading to a notable Europeanization of many important aspects of global commerce, the EU has managed to shape policy in areas such as data privacy, consumer health and safety, environmental protection, antitrust, and online hate speech. And in contrast to how superpowers wield their global influence, the Brussels Effect - a phrase first coined by Bradford in 2012- absolves the EU from playing a direct role in imposing standards, as market forces alone are often sufficient as multinational companies voluntarily extend the EU rule to govern their global operations. The Brussels Effect shows how the EU has acquired such power, why multinational companies use EU standards as global standards, and why the EU's role as the world's regulator is likely to outlive its gradual economic decline, extending the EU's influence long into the future.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.
Volume 14 addresses the central issue of entrepreneurial action: while many factors are important to the phenomenon of entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship does not happen until someone takes action!
This textbook examines the increasing impact of the European Union on the European business environment, addressing the core challenges facing enterprises in the formative years of the new millennium.
Brings together a variety of scholarly contributions from a European perspective. This book covers dimensions of MNE corporate strategy in the face of complex policy environments: corporate strategic responses to national policy institutions; pro-active institution-oriented strategies; and, dynamics of international business-government relations.
The role of the state in modern capitalism has gone beyond fixing market failures. Those regions and countries that have succeeded in achieving “smart” innovation-led growth have benefited from long-term visionary “mission-oriented” policies—from putting a man on the moon to tackling societal challenges such as climate change and the wellbeing of an ageing population. This book collects the experience of different types of mission-oriented public institutions around the world, together with thought-provoking chapters from leading economists. As the global debate on deficits and debt levels continues to roar, the book offers a challenge to the conventional narrative—asking what kinds of visionary fiscal policies we need to help promote "smart” innovation-led, inclusive, and sustainable growth.
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.