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USA. Congressional committee print reporting on the impact of federal financial policy on budgetary resources at the local level - concludes that state and local budget surplus emanating from fiscal policy is not as high or changing as accounts would have indicated and that federal grant policies should not be altered. References and statistical tables.
Reviews the experience of 6 nations with budget surpluses (BS) in 1999 -- Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K. Determines how these nations achieved BS, used BS to address long-term budgetary pressures, and adapted their budget processes once BS were achieved. Like the U.S., these nations achieved BS largely as the result of improving economies and sustained deficit reduction efforts. As they entered a period of BS, these nations debated how BS should be used and developed unique strategies for using BS to address national priorities. This experiences suggest that it is possible to sustain support for continued fiscal discipline during a period of BS while also addressing selected pent-up demands.
The federal budget impacts American policies both at home and abroad, and recent concern over the exploding budgetary deficit has experts calling our nation's policies "unsustainable" and "system-dooming." As the deficit continues to grow, will America be fully able to fund its priorities, such as an effective military and looking after its aging population? In this third edition of his classic book The Federal Budget, Allen Schick examines how surpluses projected during the final years of the Clinton presidency turned into oversized deficits under George W. Bush. In his detailed analysis of the politics and practices surrounding the federal budget, Schick addresses issues such as the collapse of the congressional budgetary process and the threat posed by the termination of discretionary spending caps. This edition updates and expands his assessment of the long-term budgetary outlook, and it concludes with a look at how the nation's deficit will affect America now and in the future. "A clear explanation of the federal budget... [Allen Schick] has captured the politics of federal budgeting from the original lofty goals to the stark realities of today."—Pete V. Domenici, U.S. Senate
Eisner argues that the federal deficit as currently measured is inaccurate and misleading. When inflation is properly accounted for, he points out, a dramatically different picture of the deficit occurs. In light of these new deficit figures, Eisner challenges current eco nomic theory and interpretations of our recent past. He finds that the deficit has not been as large as recently measured and that efforts to reduce the deficit may do more harm than good. This book will spark serious debate among economists and policymakers. The clarity of its arguments and strength of its evidence are convincing. Strongly recommended for academic and large public libraries. Richard C. Schim ing, Economics Dept., Mankato State Univ., Minn. Copyright 1986 Reed Business Information, Inc.
Fiscal 1998 marked the first year that total receipts exceeded outlays in the federal budget since 1969. Since then, the budget has been in surplus and official projections expect the budget to remain in surplus for the foreseeable future. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline projections indicate that the budget surpluses are expected to grow steadily over the next 10 years. Over fairly short periods of time, say three or four years, fiscal policy can affect the rate of economic growth by adding to, or subtracting from, aggregate demand. For a time, the effect on the economy may even be larger than the initial change in the budget. These effects, however, tend eventually to diminish because of either higher interest rates or rising prices. Estimates of the multiplier effect on the economy of a change in fiscal policy vary, but most of them suggest that it reaches a peak somewhere between one and one-and-a-half times size of the change in the budget. In most economic models, that peak effect is realized within one or two years of the initial change in policy. One measure economists use to assess fiscal policy is the structural, or standardized-employment, budget. This measure estimates, at a given time, what outlays, receipts and the surplus would be if the economy were at full employment. Although the actual budget has been in surplus since 1998, the standardized measure first registered a balanced budget in 1999. Between 1992 and 2000, the actual budget surplus increased from -4.7% to 2.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), a shift of 7.1 percentage points. Over the same period the standardized measure rose from -2.9% to 1.1% of GDP. That suggests that a little more than half of the shift was the result of changes in policy, and a little less than half was attributable to the economic expansion. In the long run, economic growth is determined primarily by three factors; growth in the labor force, the rate of technological advance, and the amount of capital available to the workforce. Of the three, the last one may be the most susceptible to the influence of policymakers. The larger the capital stock is, the more productive the labor force tends to be. While it is possible for fiscal policy to have an effect on the rate of technological progress in the way public money is spent, it probably has a much larger effect on growth through its influence on the size of the domestic stock of capital and the amount of capital available for each worker in the labor force. In 1996, the public sector contribution to national saving was small. By 2000, public sector saving had risen to 5.3% of GDP. Over the same period, private sector saving fell from 16.5% of GDP to 13.0%. Net inflows of foreign capital rose from 1.4% to 4.3% of GDP. Total funds available for investment in the U.S. from all sources rose from 18.7% to 22.6% of GDP.
This book deals with the budget-surplus myth, the Social Security Trust Fund, and voodoo economics (economic malpractice) over the past 20 years. It exposes the deliberate deception of the public by politicians from both parties that has led to the erroneous belief that the government has surplus money that is available for financing a large tax cut or new government programs. The book points out that there is no significant non-Social Security surplus today and that the projected surpluses for the next decade are little more than wishful thinking based on unrealistic economic assumptions. The book includes a detailed history of the economic policies and economic malpractice of the past two decades and analyzes the economic proposals of presidential candidates Al Gore and George W. Bush.
In fiscal year 1998, the United States achieved a unified budget surplus for the first time in nearly 30 years. Budget surpluses represent both the success of past deficit reduction efforts and an opportunity to address pressing needs. With the arrival of surpluses there has been much debate about whether surpluses should be maintained and how they should be used. While balancing the budget has been the clear and generally accepted fiscal goal for many years in the United States, there is not yet agreement on the appropriate fiscal policy during a period of budget surpluses. To help inform the current budget debate, GAO was asked to look at other countries with recent experience with budget surpluses. During the 1980s and 1990s, several advanced democracies achieved budget surpluses. Senate Budget Committee Ranking Member Lautenberg, subsequently joined by Chairman Domenici, asked that GAO examine the experiences of six nations that have achieved budget surpluses-Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Specifically, GAO was asked to determine (1) how they achieved budget surpluses and what their fiscal policies were during periods of surplus, (2) how they addressed long-term budgetary pressures, and (3) how they adapted their budget process during a period of surplus. GAO was also asked to identify lessons these nations learned from their experiences with budget surpluses that might be applicable to the United States.