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Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.
This book focuses on extending the models and theories (from a mathematical/statistical point of view) which were introduced in the first volume to a more technical level. Where volume I provided an introduction to the mathematics of bubbles and contagion, volume II digs far more deeply and widely into the modeling aspects.
This book provides an up-to-date series of advanced chapters on applied financial econometric techniques pertaining the various fields of commodities finance, mathematics & stochastics, international macroeconomics and financial econometrics. International Financial Markets: Volume I provides a key repository on the current state of knowledge, the latest debates and recent literature on international financial markets. Against the background of the "financialization of commodities" since the 2008 sub-primes crisis, section one contains recent contributions on commodity and financial markets, pushing the frontiers of applied econometrics techniques. The second section is devoted to exchange rate and current account dynamics in an environment characterized by large global imbalances. Part three examines the latest research in the field of meta-analysis in economics and finance. This book will be useful to students and researchers in applied econometrics; academics and students seeking convenient access to an unfamiliar area. It will also be of great interest established researchers seeking a single repository on the current state of knowledge, current debates and relevant literature.
The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
What causes a financial crisis? Can financial crises be anticipated or even avoided? What can be done to lessen their impact? Should governments and international institutions intervene? Or should financial crises be left to run their course? In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, many blamed international institutions, corruption, governments, and flawed macro and microeconomic policies not only for causing the crisis but also unnecessarily lengthening and deepening it. Based on ten years of research, the authors develop a theoretical approach to analyzing financial crises. Beginning with a review of the history of financial crises and providing readers with the basic economic tools needed to understand the literature, the authors construct a series of increasingly sophisticated models. Throughout, the authors guide the reader through the existing theoretical and empirical literature while also building on their own theoretical approach. The text presents the modern theory of intermediation, introduces asset markets and the causes of asset price volatility, and discusses the interaction of banks and markets. The book also deals with more specialized topics, including optimal financial regulation, bubbles, and financial contagion.
No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.