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For dozens of developing countries, the financial upheavals of the 1980s have set back economic development by a decade or more. Poverty in those countries have intensified as they struggle under the burden of an enormous external debt. In 1988, more than six years after the onset of the crisis, almost all the debtor countries were still unable to borrow in the international capital markets on normal terms. Moreover, the world financial system has been disrupted by the prospect of widespread defaults on those debts. Because of the urgency of the present crisis, and because similar crises have recurred intermittently for at least 175 years, it is important to understand the fundamental features of the international macroeconomy and global financial markets that have contributed to this repeated instability. Developing Country Debt and the World Economy contains nontechnical versions of papers prepared under the auspices of the project on developing country debt, sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The project focuses on the middle-income developing countries, particularly those in Latin America and East Asia, although many lessons of the study should apply as well to other, poorer debtor countries. The contributors analyze the crisis from two perspectives, that of the international financial system as a whole and that of individual debtor countries. Studies of eight countries—Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, South Korea, and Turkey—explore the question of why some countries succumbed to serious financial crises while other did not. Each study was prepared by a team of two authors—a U.S.-based research and an economist from the country under study. An additional eight papers approach the problem of developing country debt from a global or "systemic" perspective. The topics they cover include the history of international sovereign lending and previous debt crises, the political factors that contribute to poor economic policies in many debtor nations, the role of commercial banks and the International Monetary Fund during the current crisis, the links between debt in developing countries and economic policies in the industrialized nations, and possible new approaches to the global management of the crisis.
A concise history of Brazil's financial crisis, the policies which have brought the country to ruin, and the viable alternatives which remain.
While Brazil’s deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularly large fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginning of 2014 and the beginning of 2017. This paper finds that a variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including a deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.
Contributes to a better understanding of the policy, economic, and legal options of countries struggling with debt problems.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Brazilian Debt Crisis

United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs. Subcommittee on International Finance, Trade, and Monetary Policy

Published: 1987

Total Pages: 100


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In 1994-98, Brazil's domestic debt grew very rapidly while remaining short in maturity. The main policy recommendations for managing this domestic debt situation: maintain a tighter fiscal stance and consider the use of inflation-linked bonds. Brazil's domestic debt has posed two challenges to policymakers: it has grown very fast and, despite progress, remains extremely short in maturity. Bevilaqua and Garcia analyze Brazil's experience with domestic public debt management, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefly reviewing the recent history of the country's domestic debt, they decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt in 1995-98, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main explanations: extremely high interest payments (caused by Brazil's weak fiscal stance and quasi-fixed exchange rate regime) and the accumulation of assets (especially obligations of Brazil's states). Simulations of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-to-GDP ratio from growing further. The authors' main policy advice is to foster and rely more on inflation - linked bonds - the least harmful way to lengthen debt maturity. This paper - a product of the Brazil Country Office, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to assist in better management of Brazil's domestic debt.
This paper describes major economic developments in Brazil in 1997. A number of issues were analyzed in the paper, including the slow progress being made in the negotiation of the fiscal adjustment programs with the states, the sustainability of the growing current account deficit, as well as the strength of the banking system following macroeconomic stabilization. The paper discusses the post-Real crisis in the states and the state adjustment programs being negotiated with the federal government. Privatization and the associated foreign direct investment flows are also described.
In Brazil, the confluence of strong global demand for the country's major products, global successes for its major corporations, and steady results from its economic policies is building confidence and even reviving dreams of grandeza—the greatness that has proven elusive in the past. Even as the current economic crisis tempers expectations of the future, the trends identified in this book suggest that Brazil will continue its path toward becoming a leading economic power in the future. Once seen as an economic backwater, Brazil now occupies key niches in energy, agriculture, service industries, and even high technology. Yet Latin America's largest nation still struggles with endemic inequality issues and deep-seated ambivalence toward global economic integration. Scholars and policy practitioners from Brazil, the United States, and Europe recently gathered to investigate the present state and likely future of the Brazilian economy. This important volume is the timely result. In Brazil as an Economic Superpower? international authorities focus on five key topics: agribusiness, energy, trade, social investment, and multinational corporations. Their analyses and expertise provide not only a unique and authoritative picture of the Brazilian economy but also a useful lens through which to view the changing global economy as a whole.