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Inflation could rise permanently and substantially as a result of unifying official and black market exchange rates, even if real government spending remains constant.
This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.
This paper provides a theoretical framework to understand the way in which exchange controls modify the behavior of the different agents in the economy, leading to the creation of a parallel market economy. It gives the necessary theoretical elements to analyze this parallel market economy and provides a simple methodology to obtain relevant quantitative information about it. Finally, the paper elaborates on some of the policy implications of the existence of a parallel market economy. The model developed shows that the parallel market activities can be explained through the optimizing behavior of exporters and importers, which determines the amount of import and export smuggling, the level of the rent-seeking activity, and the black market exchange rate that is consistent with an equilibrium position where no one has any more incentives to move from their attained position. A method to detect the presence, and assess the magnitude of the parallel market economy, as well as to explain its behavior quantitatively, is then developed and applied to the case of Ghana.
''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
The paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical developments in the analysis of informal currency markets in developing countries. The basic characteristics of these markets are highlighted, and alternative analytical models to explain them are discussed. The implications for exchange rate policy —including imposition of foreign exchange restrictions, devaluation, and unification of exchange markets— in countries with a sizable parallel market are also examined.
Economic Theory and Mathematical Economics: Mathematics for Stability and Optimization of Economic Systems provides information pertinent to the stability aspects and optimization methods relevant to various economic systems. This book presents relevant mathematical theorems sufficient to develop important economic systems, including Leontief input–output systems, Keynesian dynamic models, the Ramsey optimal accumulation systems, and von Neumann expanding economic systems. Organized into two parts encompassing nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of useful theorems on matrices, eigenvalue problems, and matrices with dominant diagonals and P-matrices. This text then explores the linear transformations on vector spaces. Other chapters consider the Hawkins–Simon theorem concerning non-negative linear systems. This book discusses as well the dual linear relations and optimization methods applicable to inequality economic systems. The final chapter deals with powerful optimal control method for dynamical systems. This book is a valuable resource for mathematicians, economists, research workers, and graduate students.
The evidence of black market exchange rate systems and their impact on macroeconomic performance is well documented in this fully researched study of the problem. The book offers policy conclusions after assessing the evidence.
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Some central banks have maintained overvalued official exchange rates, while unable to ensure that supply of foreign exchange meets legitimate demand for current account transactions at that price. A parallel exchange rate market develops, in such circumstances; and when the spread between the official and parallel rates is both substantial and sustained, price levels in the economy typically reflect the parallel market exchange rate. “Recognizing reality” by allowing economic agents to use a market clearing rate benefits economic activity without necessarily leading to more inflation. But a unified, market-clearing exchange rate will not stabilize without a supportive fiscal and monetary context. A number of country case studies are included; my thanks to Jie Ren for pulling together all the data for the country case studies, and the production of the charts.