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This work is essentially an extensive revision of my Ph.D. dissertation, [1J. It 1S primarily a research document on the application of probability theory to the parameter estimation problem. The people who will be interested in this material are physicists, economists, and engineers who have to deal with data on a daily basis; consequently, we have included a great deal of introductory and tutorial material. Any person with the equivalent of the mathematics background required for the graduate level study of physics should be able to follow the material contained in this book, though not without eIfort. From the time the dissertation was written until now (approximately one year) our understanding of the parameter estimation problem has changed extensively. We have tried to incorporate what we have learned into this book. I am indebted to a number of people who have aided me in preparing this docu ment: Dr. C. Ray Smith, Steve Finney, Juana Sunchez, Matthew Self, and Dr. Pat Gibbons who acted as readers and editors. In addition, I must extend my deepest thanks to Dr. Joseph Ackerman for his support during the time this manuscript was being prepared.
This volume has its origin in the Fifth, Sixth and Seventh Workshops on and Bayesian Methods in Applied Statistics", held at "Maximum-Entropy the University of Wyoming, August 5-8, 1985, and at Seattle University, August 5-8, 1986, and August 4-7, 1987. It was anticipated that the proceedings of these workshops would be combined, so most of the papers were not collected until after the seventh workshop. Because all of the papers in this volume are on foundations, it is believed that the con tents of this volume will be of lasting interest to the Bayesian community. The workshop was organized to bring together researchers from different fields to critically examine maximum-entropy and Bayesian methods in science and engineering as well as other disciplines. Some of the papers were chosen specifically to kindle interest in new areas that may offer new tools or insight to the reader or to stimulate work on pressing problems that appear to be ideally suited to the maximum-entropy or Bayesian method. A few papers presented at the workshops are not included in these proceedings, but a number of additional papers not presented at the workshop are included. In particular, we are delighted to make available Professor E. T. Jaynes' unpublished Stanford University Microwave Laboratory Report No. 421 "How Does the Brain Do Plausible Reasoning?" (dated August 1957). This is a beautiful, detailed tutorial on the Cox-Polya-Jaynes approach to Bayesian probability theory and the maximum-entropy principle.
The first comprehensive development of Bayesian Bounds for parameter estimation and nonlinear filtering/tracking Bayesian estimation plays a central role in many signal processing problems encountered in radar, sonar, communications, seismology, and medical diagnosis. There are often highly nonlinear problems for which analytic evaluation of the exact performance is intractable. A widely used technique is to find bounds on the performance of any estimator and compare the performance of various estimators to these bounds. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the state of the art in Bayesian Bounds. It addresses two related problems: the estimation of multiple parameters based on noisy measurements and the estimation of random processes, either continuous or discrete, based on noisy measurements. An extensive introductory chapter provides an overview of Bayesian estimation and the interrelationship and applicability of the various Bayesian Bounds for both static parameters and random processes. It provides the context for the collection of papers that are included. This book will serve as a comprehensive reference for engineers and statisticians interested in both theory and application. It is also suitable as a text for a graduate seminar or as a supplementary reference for an estimation theory course.
Because they incorporate both time- and event-driven dynamics, stochastic hybrid systems (SHS) have become ubiquitous in a variety of fields, from mathematical finance to biological processes to communication networks to engineering. Comprehensively integrating numerous cutting-edge studies, Stochastic Hybrid Systems presents a captivating treatment of some of the most ambitious types of dynamic systems. Cohesively edited by leading experts in the field, the book introduces the theoretical basics, computational methods, and applications of SHS. It first discusses the underlying principles behind SHS and the main design limitations of SHS. Building on these fundamentals, the authoritative contributors present methods for computer calculations that apply SHS analysis and synthesis techniques in practice. The book concludes with examples of systems encountered in a wide range of application areas, including molecular biology, communication networks, and air traffic management. It also explains how to resolve practical problems associated with these systems. Stochastic Hybrid Systems achieves an ideal balance between a theoretical treatment of SHS and practical considerations. The book skillfully explores the interaction of physical processes with computerized equipment in an uncertain environment, enabling a better understanding of sophisticated as well as everyday devices and processes.
Bayesian inference provides a simple and unified approach to data analysis, allowing experimenters to assign probabilities to competing hypotheses of interest, on the basis of the current state of knowledge. By incorporating relevant prior information, it can sometimes improve model parameter estimates by many orders of magnitude. This book provides a clear exposition of the underlying concepts with many worked examples and problem sets. It also discusses implementation, including an introduction to Markov chain Monte-Carlo integration and linear and nonlinear model fitting. Particularly extensive coverage of spectral analysis (detecting and measuring periodic signals) includes a self-contained introduction to Fourier and discrete Fourier methods. There is a chapter devoted to Bayesian inference with Poisson sampling, and three chapters on frequentist methods help to bridge the gap between the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Supporting Mathematica® notebooks with solutions to selected problems, additional worked examples, and a Mathematica tutorial are available at www.cambridge.org/9780521150125.
This volume has its origin in the third ·Workshop on Maximum-Entropy and Bayesian Methods in Applied Statistics,· held at the University of Wyoming, August 1 to 4, 1983. It was anticipated that the proceedings of this workshop could not be prepared in a timely fashion, so most of the papers were not collected until a year or so ago. Because most of the papers are in the nature of advancing theory or solving specific problems, as opposed to status reports, it is believed that the contents of this volume will be of lasting interest to the Bayesian community. The workshop was organized to bring together researchers from differ ent fields to examine critically maximum-entropy and Bayesian methods in science, engineering, medicine, economics, and other disciplines. Some of the papers were chosen specifically to kindle interest in new areas that may offer new tools or insight to the reader or to stimulate work on pressing problems that appear to be ideally suited to the maximum-entropy or Bayes ian method.
A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.
Praise for Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling “A thoughtful and entertaining book, and a great way to get started with Bayesian analysis.” Andrew Gelman, Columbia University “The examples are modern, and even many frequentist intro books ignore important topics (like the great p-value debate) that the authors address. The focus on simulation for understanding is excellent.” Amy Herring, Duke University “I sincerely believe that a generation of students will cite this book as inspiration for their use of – and love for – Bayesian statistics. The narrative holds the reader’s attention and flows naturally – almost conversationally. Put simply, this is perhaps the most engaging introductory statistics textbook I have ever read. [It] is a natural choice for an introductory undergraduate course in applied Bayesian statistics." Yue Jiang, Duke University “This is by far the best book I’ve seen on how to (and how to teach students to) do Bayesian modeling and understand the underlying mathematics and computation. The authors build intuition and scaffold ideas expertly, using interesting real case studies, insightful graphics, and clear explanations. The scope of this book is vast – from basic building blocks to hierarchical modeling, but the authors’ thoughtful organization allows the reader to navigate this journey smoothly. And impressively, by the end of the book, one can run sophisticated Bayesian models and actually understand the whys, whats, and hows.” Paul Roback, St. Olaf College “The authors provide a compelling, integrated, accessible, and non-religious introduction to statistical modeling using a Bayesian approach. They outline a principled approach that features computational implementations and model assessment with ethical implications interwoven throughout. Students and instructors will find the conceptual and computational exercises to be fresh and engaging.” Nicholas Horton, Amherst College An engaging, sophisticated, and fun introduction to the field of Bayesian statistics, Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling brings the power of modern Bayesian thinking, modeling, and computing to a broad audience. In particular, the book is an ideal resource for advanced undergraduate statistics students and practitioners with comparable experience. Bayes Rules! empowers readers to weave Bayesian approaches into their everyday practice. Discussions and applications are data driven. A natural progression from fundamental to multivariable, hierarchical models emphasizes a practical and generalizable model building process. The evaluation of these Bayesian models reflects the fact that a data analysis does not exist in a vacuum. Features • Utilizes data-driven examples and exercises. • Emphasizes the iterative model building and evaluation process. • Surveys an interconnected range of multivariable regression and classification models. • Presents fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. • Integrates R code, including RStan modeling tools and the bayesrules package. • Encourages readers to tap into their intuition and learn by doing. • Provides a friendly and inclusive introduction to technical Bayesian concepts. • Supports Bayesian applications with foundational Bayesian theory.
Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
Bayesian methods are a powerful tool in many areas of science and engineering, especially statistical physics, medical sciences, electrical engineering, and information sciences. They are also ideal for civil engineering applications, given the numerous types of modeling and parametric uncertainty in civil engineering problems. For example, earthquake ground motion cannot be predetermined at the structural design stage. Complete wind pressure profiles are difficult to measure under operating conditions. Material properties can be difficult to determine to a very precise level – especially concrete, rock, and soil. For air quality prediction, it is difficult to measure the hourly/daily pollutants generated by cars and factories within the area of concern. It is also difficult to obtain the updated air quality information of the surrounding cities. Furthermore, the meteorological conditions of the day for prediction are also uncertain. These are just some of the civil engineering examples to which Bayesian probabilistic methods are applicable. Familiarizes readers with the latest developments in the field Includes identification problems for both dynamic and static systems Addresses challenging civil engineering problems such as modal/model updating Presents methods applicable to mechanical and aerospace engineering Gives engineers and engineering students a concrete sense of implementation Covers real-world case studies in civil engineering and beyond, such as: structural health monitoring seismic attenuation finite-element model updating hydraulic jump artificial neural network for damage detection air quality prediction Includes other insightful daily-life examples Companion website with MATLAB code downloads for independent practice Written by a leading expert in the use of Bayesian methods for civil engineering problems This book is ideal for researchers and graduate students in civil and mechanical engineering or applied probability and statistics. Practicing engineers interested in the application of statistical methods to solve engineering problems will also find this to be a valuable text. MATLAB code and lecture materials for instructors available at http://www.wiley.com/go/yuen