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Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantifi cation, Volume 3. Proceedings of the 34th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Dynamics of Multiphysical Systems: From Active Materials to Vibroacoustics, 2016, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. Th e collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: • Uncertainty Quantifi cation & Model Validation • Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics • Bayesian & Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods • Practical Applications of MVUQ • Advances in MVUQ & Model Updating • Robustness in Design & Validation • Verifi cation & Validation Methods
New Bayesian approach helps you solve tough problems in signal processing with ease Signal processing is based on this fundamental concept—the extraction of critical information from noisy, uncertain data. Most techniques rely on underlying Gaussian assumptions for a solution, but what happens when these assumptions are erroneous? Bayesian techniques circumvent this limitation by offering a completely different approach that can easily incorporate non-Gaussian and nonlinear processes along with all of the usual methods currently available. This text enables readers to fully exploit the many advantages of the "Bayesian approach" to model-based signal processing. It clearly demonstrates the features of this powerful approach compared to the pure statistical methods found in other texts. Readers will discover how easily and effectively the Bayesian approach, coupled with the hierarchy of physics-based models developed throughout, can be applied to signal processing problems that previously seemed unsolvable. Bayesian Signal Processing features the latest generation of processors (particle filters) that have been enabled by the advent of high-speed/high-throughput computers. The Bayesian approach is uniformly developed in this book's algorithms, examples, applications, and case studies. Throughout this book, the emphasis is on nonlinear/non-Gaussian problems; however, some classical techniques (e.g. Kalman filters, unscented Kalman filters, Gaussian sums, grid-based filters, et al) are included to enable readers familiar with those methods to draw parallels between the two approaches. Special features include: Unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Bayes's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling) Incorporates "classical" Kalman filtering for linear, linearized, and nonlinear systems; "modern" unscented Kalman filters; and the "next-generation" Bayesian particle filters Examples illustrate how theory can be applied directly to a variety of processing problems Case studies demonstrate how the Bayesian approach solves real-world problems in practice MATLAB notes at the end of each chapter help readers solve complex problems using readily available software commands and point out software packages available Problem sets test readers' knowledge and help them put their new skills into practice The basic Bayesian approach is emphasized throughout this text in order to enable the processor to rethink the approach to formulating and solving signal processing problems from the Bayesian perspective. This text brings readers from the classical methods of model-based signal processing to the next generation of processors that will clearly dominate the future of signal processing for years to come. With its many illustrations demonstrating the applicability of the Bayesian approach to real-world problems in signal processing, this text is essential for all students, scientists, and engineers who investigate and apply signal processing to their everyday problems.
Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.
A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.
Non-uniform random variate generation is an established research area in the intersection of mathematics, statistics and computer science. Although random variate generation with popular standard distributions have become part of every course on discrete event simulation and on Monte Carlo methods, the recent concept of universal (also called automatic or black-box) random variate generation can only be found dispersed in literature. This new concept has great practical advantages that are little known to most simulation practitioners. Being unique in its overall organization the book covers not only the mathematical and statistical theory, but also deals with the implementation of such methods. All algorithms introduced in the book are designed for practical use in simulation and have been coded and made available by the authors. Examples of possible applications of the presented algorithms (including option pricing, VaR and Bayesian statistics) are presented at the end of the book.
Statistical pattern recognition is a very active area of study andresearch, which has seen many advances in recent years. New andemerging applications - such as data mining, web searching,multimedia data retrieval, face recognition, and cursivehandwriting recognition - require robust and efficient patternrecognition techniques. Statistical decision making and estimationare regarded as fundamental to the study of pattern recognition. Statistical Pattern Recognition, Second Edition has been fullyupdated with new methods, applications and references. It providesa comprehensive introduction to this vibrant area - with materialdrawn from engineering, statistics, computer science and the socialsciences - and covers many application areas, such as databasedesign, artificial neural networks, and decision supportsystems. * Provides a self-contained introduction to statistical patternrecognition. * Each technique described is illustrated by real examples. * Covers Bayesian methods, neural networks, support vectormachines, and unsupervised classification. * Each section concludes with a description of the applicationsthat have been addressed and with further developments of thetheory. * Includes background material on dissimilarity, parameterestimation, data, linear algebra and probability. * Features a variety of exercises, from 'open-book' questions tomore lengthy projects. The book is aimed primarily at senior undergraduate and graduatestudents studying statistical pattern recognition, patternprocessing, neural networks, and data mining, in both statisticsand engineering departments. It is also an excellent source ofreference for technical professionals working in advancedinformation development environments. For further information on the techniques and applicationsdiscussed in this book please visit ahref="http://www.statistical-pattern-recognition.net/"www.statistical-pattern-recognition.net/a
Research has generated a number of advances in methods for spatial cluster modelling in recent years, particularly in the area of Bayesian cluster modelling. Along with these advances has come an explosion of interest in the potential applications of this work, especially in epidemiology and genome research. In one integrated volume, this b
This work is essentially an extensive revision of my Ph.D. dissertation, [1J. It 1S primarily a research document on the application of probability theory to the parameter estimation problem. The people who will be interested in this material are physicists, economists, and engineers who have to deal with data on a daily basis; consequently, we have included a great deal of introductory and tutorial material. Any person with the equivalent of the mathematics background required for the graduate level study of physics should be able to follow the material contained in this book, though not without eIfort. From the time the dissertation was written until now (approximately one year) our understanding of the parameter estimation problem has changed extensively. We have tried to incorporate what we have learned into this book. I am indebted to a number of people who have aided me in preparing this docu ment: Dr. C. Ray Smith, Steve Finney, Juana Sunchez, Matthew Self, and Dr. Pat Gibbons who acted as readers and editors. In addition, I must extend my deepest thanks to Dr. Joseph Ackerman for his support during the time this manuscript was being prepared.
This book provides a concise and accessible overview of model averaging, with a focus on applications. Model averaging is a common means of allowing for model uncertainty when analysing data, and has been used in a wide range of application areas, such as ecology, econometrics, meteorology and pharmacology. The book presents an overview of the methods developed in this area, illustrating many of them with examples from the life sciences involving real-world data. It also includes an extensive list of references and suggestions for further research. Further, it clearly demonstrates the links between the methods developed in statistics, econometrics and machine learning, as well as the connection between the Bayesian and frequentist approaches to model averaging. The book appeals to statisticians and scientists interested in what methods are available, how they differ and what is known about their properties. It is assumed that readers are familiar with the basic concepts of statistical theory and modelling, including probability, likelihood and generalized linear models.