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This paper develops new econometric methods to infer hospital quality in a model with discrete dependent variables and non-random selection. Mortality rates in patient discharge records are widely used to infer hospital quality. However, hospital admission is not random and some hospitals may attract patients with greater unobserved severity of illness than others. In this situation the assumption of random admission leads to spurious inference about hospital quality. This study controls for hospital selection using a model in which distance between the patient's residence and alternative hospitals are key exogenous variables. Bayesian inference in this model is feasible using a Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior simulator, and attaches posterior probabilities to quality comparisons between individual hospitals and groups of hospitals. The study uses data on 74,848 Medicare patients admitted to 114 hospitals in Los Angeles County from 1989 through 1992 with a diagnosis of pneumonia. It finds the smallest and largest hospitals to be of high quality and public hospitals to be of low quality. There is strong evidence of dependence between the unobserved severity of illness and the assignment of patients to hospitals. Consequently a conventional probit model leads to inferences about quality markedly different than those in this study's selection model.
This paper develops new econometric methods to estimate hospital quality and other models with discrete dependent variables and non-random selection. Mortality rates in patient discharge records are widely used to infer hospital quality. However, hospital admission is not random and some hospitals may attract patients with greater unobserved severity of illness than others. In this situation the assumption of random admission leads to spurious inference about hospital quality. This study controls for hospital selection using a model in which distance between the patient?s residence and alternative hospitals are key exogenous variables. Bayesian inference in this model is feasible using a Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior simulator, and attaches posterior probabilities to quality comparisons between individual hospitals and groups of hospitals. The study uses data on 77,937 Medicare patients admitted to 117 hospitals in Los Angeles County from 1989 through 1992 with a diagnosis of pneumonia. It finds higher quality in smaller hospitals than larger, and in private for-profit hospitals than in hospitals in other ownership categories. Variations in unobserved severity of illness across hospitals is at least a great as variation in hospital quality. Consequently a conventional probit model leads to inferences about quality markedly different than those in this study?s selection model.
A broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing.
Probabilistic modeling represents a subject arising in many branches of mathematics, economics, and computer science. Such modeling connects pure mathematics with applied sciences. Similarly, data analyzing and statistics are situated on the border between pure mathematics and applied sciences. Therefore, when probabilistic modeling meets statistics, it is a very interesting occasion that has gained much research recently. With the increase of these technologies in life and work, it has become somewhat essential in the workplace to have planning, timetabling, scheduling, decision making, optimization, simulation, data analysis, and risk analysis and process modeling. However, there are still many difficulties and challenges that arrive in these sectors during the process of planning or decision making. There continues to be the need for more research on the impact of such probabilistic modeling with other approaches. Analyzing Data Through Probabilistic Modeling in Statistics is an essential reference source that builds on the available literature in the field of probabilistic modeling, statistics, operational research, planning and scheduling, data extrapolation in decision making, probabilistic interpolation and extrapolation in simulation, stochastic processes, and decision analysis. This text will provide the resources necessary for economics and management sciences and for mathematics and computer sciences. This book is ideal for interested technology developers, decision makers, mathematicians, statisticians and practitioners, stakeholders, researchers, academicians, and students looking to further their research exposure to pertinent topics in operations research and probabilistic modeling.
Bayesian methods combine the evidence from the data at hand with previous quantitative knowledge to analyse practical problems in a wide range of areas. The calculations were previously complex, but it is now possible to routinely apply Bayesian methods due to advances in computing technology and the use of new sampling methods for estimating parameters. Such developments together with the availability of freeware such as WINBUGS and R have facilitated a rapid growth in the use of Bayesian methods, allowing their application in many scientific disciplines, including applied statistics, public health research, medical science, the social sciences and economics. Following the success of the first edition, this reworked and updated book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and analysis, with an emphasis on the principles of prior selection, identification and the interpretation of real data sets. The second edition: Provides an integrated presentation of theory, examples, applications and computer algorithms. Discusses the role of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in computing and estimation. Includes a wide range of interdisciplinary applications, and a large selection of worked examples from the health and social sciences. Features a comprehensive range of methodologies and modelling techniques, and examines model fitting in practice using Bayesian principles. Provides exercises designed to help reinforce the reader’s knowledge and a supplementary website containing data sets and relevant programs. Bayesian Statistical Modelling is ideal for researchers in applied statistics, medical science, public health and the social sciences, who will benefit greatly from the examples and applications featured. The book will also appeal to graduate students of applied statistics, data analysis and Bayesian methods, and will provide a great source of reference for both researchers and students. Praise for the First Edition: “It is a remarkable achievement to have carried out such a range of analysis on such a range of data sets. I found this book comprehensive and stimulating, and was thoroughly impressed with both the depth and the range of the discussions it contains.” – ISI - Short Book Reviews “This is an excellent introductory book on Bayesian modelling techniques and data analysis” – Biometrics “The book fills an important niche in the statistical literature and should be a very valuable resource for students and professionals who are utilizing Bayesian methods.” – Journal of Mathematical Psychology
Following theseminal Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume I , this second volume brings together the finestacademicsworking in econometrics today andexploresapplied econometrics, containing contributions onsubjects includinggrowth/development econometrics and applied econometrics and computing.
We study the costs of hospitalizations on patients’ earnings and labor supply, using the universe of hospital admissions in Denmark and full-population tax data. We evaluate the quality of treatment based on its ability to mitigate the labor market consequences of a given diagnosis and propose a new measure of hospital quality, the "Adjusted Earning Losses" (AEL). We find a 4 percentage points difference in lost earnings between the best and worst large Danish hospitals, all else equal. We show that AEL contains significant additional information relative to traditional measures and does not suffer from worse selection issues. We also document a large decline in the labor cost of hospitalizations over time, with large variations across diseases. We find that the average post-hospitalization reduction in labor earnings declined by 25 percent (50 percent) on the intensive (extensive) margin between 1998 and 2012.
Research in Bayesian analysis and statistical decision theory is rapidly expanding and diversifying, making it increasingly more difficult for any single researcher to stay up to date on all current research frontiers. This book provides a review of current research challenges and opportunities. While the book can not exhaustively cover all current research areas, it does include some exemplary discussion of most research frontiers. Topics include objective Bayesian inference, shrinkage estimation and other decision based estimation, model selection and testing, nonparametric Bayes, the interface of Bayesian and frequentist inference, data mining and machine learning, methods for categorical and spatio-temporal data analysis and posterior simulation methods. Several major application areas are covered: computer models, Bayesian clinical trial design, epidemiology, phylogenetics, bioinformatics, climate modeling and applications in political science, finance and marketing. As a review of current research in Bayesian analysis the book presents a balance between theory and applications. The lack of a clear demarcation between theoretical and applied research is a reflection of the highly interdisciplinary and often applied nature of research in Bayesian statistics. The book is intended as an update for researchers in Bayesian statistics, including non-statisticians who make use of Bayesian inference to address substantive research questions in other fields. It would also be useful for graduate students and research scholars in statistics or biostatistics who wish to acquaint themselves with current research frontiers.