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This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading. Topics covered include unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks, time aggregation, forecasting, the Kalman filter, generalised method of moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, vector autoregressive, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and dynamic panel models. Presenting the most important models and techniques for empirical research, this Handbook will appeal to students, researchers and academics working in empirical macro and econometrics.
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
This volume analyzes the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy transition and climate change from an economic perspective. Since its emergence in early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a powerful effect on multiple facets of the global economy. The unknown scope and duration of the pandemic and its associated economic shocks have made energy security and the process of clean energy transition highly unpredictable. To combat this, this edited volume presents a wide range of theoretical and empirical research at the nexus of the COVID-19 pandemic and energy, resource, and environmental economics. Chapters focus on four major themes: the impact of crises on energy security, the role of resilient energy systems in society, the challenges of clean energy transition, and economic impacts of COVID-19 on climate change. Providing rigorous analysis of an evolving situation that will continue to impact the global energy market, this volume will be of interest to researchers and students of energy economics, environmental economics, and resource economics as well as policy professionals involved in climate change and energy transition.
This book investigates the socioeconomic factors that triggered Tunisia’s "revolution for dignity” and the current issues and challenges facing its economy while suggesting mechanisms and instruments for their resolution. The author begins by analyzing the roots of the revolution and the post-revolution situation from a political sociology perspective and then diagnoses the Tunisian economy before and after the revolution and identifies the multidimensional binding constraints preventing it from escaping the middle-income trap. The book then explores the pillars of an inclusive development strategy that Tunisia should pursue. The emphasis is made on building inclusive institutions, developing a new social contract and reinventing the country's leadership. Beyond the institutional dimension, the author suggests innovative financial channels, discusses the strategy of a successful integration of the Tunisian economy in the global economy as well as the pillars of its transformation into a knowledge-based economy.
This essay considers some prescriptions that are currently popular regarding exchange rate regimes: a general movement toward floating, a general movement toward fixing, or a general movement toward either extreme and away from the middle. The whole spectrum from fixed to floating is covered (including basket pegs, crawling pegs, and bands), with special attention to currency boards and dollarization. One overall theme is that the appropriate exchange rate regime varies depending on the specific circumstances of the country in question (which includes the classic optimum currency area criteria, as well as some newer criteria related to credibility) and depending on the circumstances of the time period in question (which includes the problem of successful exit strategies). Latin American interest rates are seen to be more sensitive to US interest rates when the country has a loose dollar peg than when it has a tight peg. It is also argued that such relevant country characteristics as income correlations and openness can vary over time, and that the optimum currency area criterion is accordingly endogenous.
The Egyptian economy has faced tough challenges since the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. This book examines the plight of Egypt's most vulnerable groups by focusing on the intersection of gender and economic vulnerability in the labor market, exploring issues such as job access, wage inequality, food security, health status, and many others.
This comprehensive history, published jointly by the IMF and Oxford University Press, was written to mark the fiftieth anniversary of international monetary cooperation. From the establishment of the postwar international monetary system in 1944 to how the framework functions in a vastly expanded world economy, historian Harol James describes the tensions, negotiations, challenges, and progress of international monetary cooperation. This narrative offers a global perspective on the events and decisions that have shaped the world economy during the past fifty years.
The paper provides a detailed description of a novel dataset on education attainment in public administrations covering the period 1981-2011 for 178 countries. The dataset uses information extracted from CVs for over 130,000 mid to senior level officials from mainly central banks and ministries of economy and finance. Our main finding is that there is little heterogeneity across regions when considering a non quality-adjusted measure of education attainment in public administrations. Adjusting our measure for quality, using a country wide academic ranking, reveals important cross-regional heterogeneity differing from that of standard measures of education attainment for the general population. The dataset also allows us to uncover important patterns in public administrations' education attainment along gender and seniority across regions. We further use the dataset to explore a few applications which provide some evidence of (i) the importance of salary incentives in attracting highly educated staff and (ii) a positive association between education attainment in public administrations and government effectiveness (e.g. higher tax revenue mobilization, limiting corruption, better public finance management and private market support).
The Central, Eastern, and South Eastern European (CESEE) region is ripe for a reassessment of the role of the state in economic activity. The rapid income convergence with Western Europe of the early 2000s was not always equally shared across society, and it has now slowed dramatically in many countries of the region.