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Describes the success of the first five years of the euro's life. This book describes the mechanisms that have been used by the ECB to achieve its objectives. It also states that EU governments must address structural difficulties in their economies, particularly in labour markets.
Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete picture of the economy. However, treating monetary factors as a separate matter is a second-best solution. Instead, a general-equilibrium inspired analytical framework that merges the economic and monetary "pillars" of the ECB's policy strategy appears the most promising way forward. The role played by monetary aggregates in such unified framework may be rather limited. However, an integrated framework would facilitate the presentation of policy decisions by providing a clearer narrative of the relative role of money in the interaction with other economic and financial sector variables, including asset prices, and their impact on consumer prices.
As one of the world's key central banks, the European Central Bank comes under intense public scrutiny. Yet, its constituency is diverse, with different national traditions of central banking and varied views about the conduct of monetary policy. The ECB acts on behalf of all the members of EMU, but belongs to no particular member state. It is accountable to the European Parliament, which has only a very recent tradition of oversight of monetary policy. For these reasons, there is a need for a regular, rigorous, non-partisan and pan-European analysis of the options facing the ECB and the policies it pursues. Monitoring the European Central Bank addresses this need. Written by a team of distinguished academic economists known internationally for their work on macroeconomics and monetary policy, MECB produces a full report and an Update each year. The full report describes the issues faced by the ECB during the preceding year; assesses the policy choices that were made; and sets out the issues likely to arise during the coming year. The Update offers a follow-up to the main report, and is written in the light of the Bank's own annual report. 'Duisenberg record' and the recent review by the ECB of its monetary policy strategy. It finds that the ECB has failed to achieve its stated key objective of avoiding inflation in excess of 2 per cent. Tough rhetoric without delivery has been a strategic mistake. Actual inflation appears to be adrift due to inattentive policy. This could lead to a dangerous and costly-to-correct climb in the inflation rates, unless sufficient attention is paid soon to this issue by the ECB. The ECB should have used its review of the monetary policy strategy to admit this failure and to adjust its inflation target range upwards, bringing words in line with actual policy. It did not, and stresses continuity instead. Money still continues to play too prominent a role in the ECB's stated strategy. The report examines several of the arguments often given for a prominent role of money, and finds none of them convincing. Inflation at present and in the future should be the central focus of the ECB's analysis, not money growth rates. Deflation is a risk that is always present when inflation is low. The ECB should admit this rather than avoi
This paper discusses the case for a money pillar in the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy strategy. Time-series evidence for industrial countries based on frequency-domain and unobserved-components analysis suggests that money can play a useful role in gauging and constraining long-run risks to price stability. Moreover, the specter of asset price bubbles and some of the area's institutional features, which may impart considerable persistence to area-wide inflation, caution against shifting to conventional inflation targeting. But the time series evidence also seems to point to a relatively loose connection between variations in nominal money growth and inflation in the short to medium run. As a consequence, effective communication of the ECB's monetary policy decisions from the point of view of the present money pillar is likely to remain a challenging task.
David Howarth and Peter Loedel provide a theoretically inspired account of the creation, design and operation of the European Central Bank. Issues explored include the theoretical approaches to the ECB, the antecedents of European monetary authority, the different national perspectives on central bank independence, the complex organisation of the bank, the issues of accountability and the difficult first years of the ECB in operation.