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In this paper, a simple methodology to assess the effectiveness of automatic stabilizers is proposed and empirically tested using French data for the period 1970-2000. The paper concludes that fiscal stabilizers have dampened output variability by approximately 35 45 percent depending on the measure of potential output used. In addition, the results indicate that fiscal stabilizers mainly operated through the reduction of private investment fluctuations from 1970 to 1985, and through the reduction of private consumption variability thereafter. Due to the counterfactual nature of the analysis performed, the simplicity of the theoretical model, and simultaneity issues that might introduce biases, the results can at most be interpreted as approximations of the phenomenon that is analyzed.
This Selected Issues paper addresses the question of what policy changes in France are needed under European Monetary Union (EMU), as regards the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy. The fiscal strategy over the past two and a half decades is reviewed, and, against this background, an assessment is offered concerning the role and scope of fiscal stabilizers in France under EMU. The main conclusions is that over the past two and a half decades, fiscal policy operated in a clear countercyclical way in France, but this reflected essentially the functioning of automatic stabilizers.
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of national fiscal policies in the European Union and in the European Monetary Union. Adopting a critical perspective, the book offers a deep insight into the consequences of the current strategy of national fiscal policies on economic activity.
This paper measures the size of automatic fiscal revenue stabilizers and evaluates their role in Latin America. It introduces a relatively rich tax structure into a dynamic, stochastic, multi-sector small open economy inhabited by rule-of-thumb consumers (who consume their wages and do not save or borrow) and Ricardian households to study the stabilizing properties of different parameters of the tax code. The economy faces multiple sources of business cycle fluctuations: (1) world capital market shocks; (2) world business cycle shocks; (3) terms of trade shocks; (4) government spending shocks; and (5) nontradable and (6) tradable sector technology innovations. Calibrating the model economy to a typical Latin American economy allows the evaluation of its ability to mimic the region's observed business cycle frequency properties and the assessment of the quantitative relationship between tax code parameters, business cycle forcing variables, and business cycle behavior. The model captures many of the salient features of Latin America's business cycle facts and finds that the degree of smoothing provided by the automatic revenue stabilizers-described by various properties of the tax system-is negligible. Simulation results seem to suggest an invariance property for middle-income countries: the amplitude of the business cycle is independent of the tax structure. And government size-measured by the GDP ratio of government spending-plays the role of an automatic stabilizer, but its smoothing effect is very weak.
The object of this book is to compare the macroeconomic characteristics of the French and German economies. It focusses on the effect of stabilization policy and of international disturbances and tries to find out the trade-offs of economic policy. The study is based on a simulation analysis using large-scale econometric models of the two countries. Instead of using models as black boxes the dynamic structures are compared in considerable detail. This entails decomposing the models into blocs of strategic sets of equations. Comparing bloc by bloc allows one to distinguish between the contribution of various economic processes (price-wage dynamics, monetary mechanism, multiplier-accelerator interaction) to macroeconomic performance. Main features: Franco-German comparison of macroeconomic response to policy measures and international shocks; Evaluation of policy trade-offs; Detailed institutional and historical background to macro-policy in France and Germany.
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.