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Ukraine’s economic performance has been anemic since the early 1990s. A major impediment to productivity growth has been low investment, held back by lack of strong and independent institutions. This paper aims to assess the major areas of institutional weakness in Ukraine and quantify the long-term growth impact of catching-up to Poland in terms of the quality of major economic institutions and market development. Our analysis identifies the legal system as the area where the institutional quality is weakest compared to Poland, followed distantly by market competition, openness to trade and financial depth. Using a methodology that accounts for positive spillovers between the structural reform areas, we estimate that even under the most optimistic scenario, where institutional gaps are fully addressed, Ukraine would need 15 years to catch up to Poland’s current income level.
Wide-ranging structural reforms are underway in Italy, aimed at addressing key bottlenecks in the product and labor markets. Our analysis, based on the IMF‘s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), attempts to quantify the potential gains to the economy from a comprehensive package of structural reforms. We find that these gains can be sizeable. While in most cases, the reforms go in the right direction, their impact would depend on effective and timely implementation. In some areas, especially in the labor market, reforms would benefit from further strengthening. The priorities should be to strengthen competition in the non-tradable sector and make the labor market more efficient and inclusive, supported by growth-friendly fiscal reforms.
Axel Siedenberg, Lutz Hoffmann 1 The specificity of transformation in Ukraine When the Soviet empire collapsed in the very early 1990s, the new era that dawned was commonly given the name 'transformation', implying the systemic change from socialism towards some form of market economy. Almost ten years later, 'the' transformation process does not exist any more; instead, a whole variety of transformations are taking place in Eastern Europe and the CIS: Whereas some countries are heading towards EU membership (e. g. Poland), others are still pondering on what economic system to adopt (e. g. Russia) and yet others have rejected a market-oriented transformation outright (e. g. Belarus). Within this variety of transformations, Ukraine clearly stands out as a specific case: Whilst initially considered to be one of the stronger post-Soviet Republics, it descended into economic depression in 1992 and has hardly recovered since; on the other hand, once considered to be a potential centre of ethnic unrest and political instability, it has turned into a democratic, peaceful civil society that is firmly establishing itself within the new European and world order. This book takes a critical look at economic reform in Ukraine as compared to other East European and CIS countries. Our hypothesis is that Ukraine is going through a transformation process peculiar to itself, which can be traced at both macroeconomic and microeconomic level.
Ukraine may have taken a "gradualist" approach to economic reform, but the results have been no better than in Russia. The editors have assembled the leading specialists on the Ukrainian economy, including officials from major Ukrainian and international economic institutions, to outline the major problems of the economy, analyze the initial phases of economic reform in Ukraine, assess their outcomes, and chart the way forward.
Going for Growth is the OECD’s regular report on structural reforms in policy areas that have been identified as priorities to boost incomes in OECD and selected non-OECD countries (Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Latvia, Russian Federation and South Africa).
This volume examines the impact on economic performance of structural policies-policies that increase the role of market forces and competition in the economy, while maintaining appropriate regulatory frameworks. The results reflect a new dataset covering reforms of domestic product markets, international trade, the domestic financial sector, and the external capital account, in 91 developed and developing countries. Among the key results of this study, the authors find that real and financial reforms (and, in particular, domestic financial liberalization, trade liberalization, and agricultural liberalization) boost income growth. However, growth effects differ significantly across alternative reform sequencing strategies: a trade-before-capital-account strategy achieves better outcomes than the reverse, or even than a "big bang"; also, liberalizing the domestic financial sector together with the external capital account is growth-enhancing, provided the economy is relatively open to international trade. Finally, relatively liberalized domestic financial sectors enhance the economy's resilience, reducing output costs from adverse terms-of-trade and interest-rate shocks; increased credit availability is one of the key mechanisms.
This paper assesses the effects of structural reforms on firm-level productivity for 37 developing countries from 2006 to 2014 period. It takes advantage of the IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements dataset for reform indexes and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for firm-level productivity. The paper highlights the following results. Structural reforms such as financial, fiscal, real sector, and trade reforms, significantly improve firm-level productivity. Interestingly, real sector reforms have the most sizeable effects on firm-level productivity. The relationship between structural reforms and firm-level productivity is nonlinear and shaped by some firms’ characteristics such as the financial access, the distortionary environment, and the size of firms. The pace of structural reforms matters since being a “strong reformer” is associated with a clear productivity dividend for firms. Finally, except for financial and trade reforms, all structural reforms under consideration are bilaterally complementary in improving firm-level productivity. These findings are robust to several sensitivity checks.
Based on a broad set of indicators of structural policies and performance, Going for Growth 2007 takes stock of the recent progress made in implementing policy reforms and identifies, for each OECD country, five policy priorities to lift growth.
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Cancellation of Stand-by Arrangement (SBA). Despite tangible progress under the SBA, the crisis in Ukraine has increased its balance of payments and adjustment needs beyond what can be achieved under the current program. The authorities’ new four-year IMF-supported program aims to decisively address these challenges. The program lays out a strategy to restore financial and economic stability and resolve long-standing structural obstacles to growth. In view of Ukraine’s large external financing needs and the authorities’ strong policy commitments, the IMF staff supports approval of Ukraine’s four-year Extended Arrangement under the EFF with access equivalent to SDR 12.348 billion.