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Against the background of a decade of declining per-capita income and high inflation, the Article IV consultation focused on policies to begin to tackle Argentina’s underlying impediments to sustained growth and low and stable inflation. Avoiding boom-bust dynamics suggests the need for greater emphasis on policies to promote net exports and mobilize domestic saving to finance much-needed investment. Reversing the high degree of financial dollarization, however, will take time and will require a durable commitment to tackle fiscal dominance and strengthen debt sustainability. Meanwhile, addressing budget rigidities is essential to improve Argentina’s resilience to shocks, while reorienting public spending towards investment and innovation is critical to support productivity and reduce intergenerational inequities. Sustained political and social consensus is necessary for policy predictability and to balance demands from financing Argentina’s large social welfare system while also encouraging private investment and formal employment.
This book explores the central economic and political issues defining the modern world. With contributions from a number of world renowned economists, a range of topical debates are discussed in an accessible and practical manner. The topics discussed include the current economic and political backdrop, global economic shifts, challenges within central banking and financial integration, the international monetary and financial system, and geopolitical tensions. Particular attention is given to the transition to a low carbon economy, the perils of public debt, the post-COVID-19 recovery, and the conflict in Ukraine. This book aims to envisage the economic challenges and opportunities that will be faced in the years to come. It will be relevant to students, researchers, and policymakers interested in economic policy and the political economy. Chapter-No.17 is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.
An inherited legacy of imbalances. Upon taking office in December last year, Argentina’s new government faced pervasive macroeconomic imbalances, microeconomic distortions, and a weakened institutional framework. These encompassed unsustainably high consumption levels, historically low levels of investment, and large fiscal deficits financed by money creation, which led to high inflation. Distortions at the micro level included an extensive network of administrative controls (for example, trade barriers, foreign exchange restrictions, and price controls) and a business environment that eroded competitiveness and undermined medium-term growth. There was also an important weakening of the institutional framework for economic policymaking, perhaps most evident in the loss of credibility of the national statistics agency.
Early decisive policy implementation by the new economic team was critical to stabilizing markets and begin rebuilding confidence in the run-up to the second review. Domestic demand has since slowed in response to tighter macroeconomic policies, with high frequency indicators pointing to a further moderation in inflation, a contraction in goods imports, and improvements in the trade balance. Nonetheless, and against a more challenging external and domestic backdrop, the situation remains fragile. Inflation is still high and unanchored, reserves are low, and confidence needs further strengthening. Moreover, social discontent has risen amid spending restraint and some decline in real wages. Review discussions focused on strengthening macroeconomic policies to safeguard stability and achieve program objectives, especially a durable reduction in inflation and improvement in reserve coverage.
CAR is on the brink of a humanitarian crisis with acute food insecurity and access to health care drastically impaired. Social tensions have ratcheted up, including strikes in various sectors, on the back of a cost-of-living crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Political tensions have also escalated from the President’s plans of a third mandate requiring revisions to the constitution. The 2021 suspension of budget support—which deprived the government of 5 percent of GDP in financing—is now constraining, following the erosion of buffers, including the 2021 SDR allocation. The protracted balance of payment need is preventing the authorities from delivering basic public services to an already afflicted population. Against this backdrop, the authorities have requested Fund financing assistance.

Barbados

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2018-10-04

Total Pages: 90


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