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The upper ocean is modeled in the framework of a three dimensional mixed-layer approximation and is coupled to the Hiber thermodynamic dynamic ice model. Two different modeling approaches are used for the interior ocean. In one, the geostrophic velocity is obtained from an inverse, Beta-spiral, type of model. In another, the barotrophic velocity is calculated prognostically. Topography is included in both approaches. The model is initialized form Levitus climatology and is forced by NOGAPS atmospheric forcing. Studies of diurnal and seasonal regimes are performed. The nature of the boundary layer under ice, in the marginal ice zone, and open water is analyzed. Transmission of wind stress through the ice is considered. The resultant Ekman pumping and the forcings of the interior ocean are calculated. In the Greenland Sea and Norwegian Sea areas, major changes in the behavior of the upper ocean are observed from the Arctic Basin outwards. Deep neutrally stable mixed layers tend to occur outside the MIZ. The heat and salt budgets of these regions are computed.
Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.
" ... as soon as one has traversed the greater part of the wild sea, one comes upon such a huge quantity of ice that nowhere in the whole world has the like been known." "This ice is of a wonderful nature. It lies at times quite still, as one would expect, with openings or large fjords in it; but sometimes its movement is so strong and rapid as to equal that of a ship running before the wind, and it drifts against the wind as often as with it." Kongespeilet - 1250 A.D. ("The Mirror of Kings") Modern societies require increasing amounts influence on the water mass and on the resulting of scientific information about the environment total environment of the region; therefore, cer tain of its characteristics will necessarily be in whieh they live and work. For the seas this information must describe the air above the sea, included.
Numerical models have proven integral to the study of climate dynamics. Sea ice models are critical to the improvement of general circulation models used to study the global climate. The object of this study is to evaluate a high resolution ice-ocean coupled model by comparing it to derived measurements from SMMR and SSM/I satellite observations. Utilized for this study was the NASA Goddard Space Flight (GSFC) Sea Ice Concentration Data Set from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Using animations of side-by-side presentations, variability comparisons and anomaly values the of similarities and differences between the model and the satellite were noted. The model shows a true representation of the seasonal cycle of ice concentration variation, with natural growth, advection, decay. Model performance is weakest in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas where excessive ice is developed. A 30 day lag in the freezing and melting of ice in Hudson Bay was noted in the model. The use of monthly mean Levitus temperatures adversely affects model performance evidenced by a tendency to grow and retain excess ice in the marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean.
Oceans play a pivotal role in our weather and climate. Ocean-borne commerce is vital to our increasingly close-knit global community. Yet we do not fully understand the intricate details of how they function, how they interact with the atmosphere, and what the limits are to their biological productivity and their tolerance to wastes. While satellites are helping us to fill in the gaps, numerical ocean models are playing an important role in increasing our ability to comprehend oceanic processes, monitor the current state of the oceans, and to a limited extent, even predict their future state.Numerical Models of Oceans and Oceanic Processes is a survey of the current state of knowledge in this field. It brings together a discussion of salient oceanic dynamics and processes, numerical solution methods, and ocean models to provide a comprehensive treatment of the topic. Starting with elementary concepts in ocean dynamics, it deals with equatorial, mid-latitude, high latitude, and coastal dynamics from the perspective of a modeler. A comprehensive and up-to-date chapter on tides is also included. This is followed by a discussion of different kinds of numerical ocean models and the pre- and post-processing requirements and techniques. Air-sea and ice-ocean coupled models are described, as well as data assimilation and nowcast/forecasts. Comprehensive appendices on wavelet transforms and empirical orthogonal functions are also included.This comprehensive and up-to-date survey of the field should be of interest to oceanographers, atmospheric scientists, and climatologists. While some prior knowledge of oceans and numerical modeling is helpful, the book includes an overview of enough elementary material so that along with its companion volume, Small Scale Processes in Geophysical Flows, it should be useful to both students new to the field and practicing professionals. * Comprehensive and up-to-date review* Useful for a two-semester (or one-semester on selected topics) graduate level course* Valuable reference on the topic* Essential for a better understanding of weather and climate
The Pacific Arctic region is experiencing rapid sea ice retreat, seawater warming, ocean acidification and biological response. Physical and biogeochemical modeling indicates the potential for step-function changes to the overall marine ecosystem. This synthesis book was coordinated within the Pacific Arctic Group, a network of international partners working in the Pacific Arctic. Chapter topics range from atmospheric and physical sciences to chemical processing and biological response to changing environmental conditions. Physical and biogeochemical modeling results highlight the need for data collection and interdisciplinary modeling activities to track and forecast the changing ecosystem of the Pacific Arctic with climate change.
The sea ice surrounding Antarctica has increased in extent and concentration from the late 1970s, when satellite-based measurements began, until 2015. Although this increasing trend is modest, it is surprising given the overall warming of the global climate and the region. Indeed, climate models, which incorporate our best understanding of the processes affecting the region, generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Moreover, sea ice in the Arctic has exhibited pronounced declines over the same period, consistent with global climate model simulations. For these reasons, the behavior of Antarctic sea ice has presented a conundrum for global climate change science. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop in January 2016, to bring together scientists with different sets of expertise and perspectives to further explore potential mechanisms driving the evolution of recent Antarctic sea ice variability and to discuss ways to advance understanding of Antarctic sea ice and its relationship to the broader ocean-climate system. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
The sea ice surrounding Antarctica has increased in extent and concentration from the late 1970s, when satellite-based measurements began, until 2015. Although this increasing trend is modest, it is surprising given the overall warming of the global climate and the region. Indeed, climate models, which incorporate our best understanding of the processes affecting the region, generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Moreover, sea ice in the Arctic has exhibited pronounced declines over the same period, consistent with global climate model simulations. For these reasons, the behavior of Antarctic sea ice has presented a conundrum for global climate change science. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop in January 2016, to bring together scientists with different sets of expertise and perspectives to further explore potential mechanisms driving the evolution of recent Antarctic sea ice variability and to discuss ways to advance understanding of Antarctic sea ice and its relationship to the broader ocean-climate system. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
This thesis provides a continuation of the analysis of the diminishing sea ice trend in the Arctic Ocean by examining results from the NPS 1/12 degree pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model. While many previous studies have analyzed changes in ice extent and concentration, this research focuses on ice thickness as it gives a better representation of ice volume variability. The skill of the model is examined by comparing its ice thickness output to actual sea ice thickness data gathered during the last three decades. The model comparison is made against the most recently released collection of Arctic ice draft measurements conducted by U.S. Navy submarines between 1979 and 2000. The NPS model indicates an accelerated thinning trend in Arctic sea ice during the last decade. The validation of model output with submarine upward-looking sonar data supports this result. This lends credence to the postulation that the Arctic is likely to be ice-free during the summer in the near future. The diminishing Arctic sea ice will have significant implications for both the physical and operational environment in which the U.S. Navy currently operates.
Over the past 20 years the study of the frozen Arctic and Southern Oceans and sub-arctic seas has progressed at a remarkable pace. This third edition of Sea Ice gives insight into the very latest understanding of the how sea ice is formed, how we measure (and model) its extent, the biology that lives within and associated with sea ice and the effect of climate change on its distribution. How sea ice influences the oceanography of underlying waters and the influences that sea ice has on humans living in Arctic regions are also discussed. Featuring twelve new chapters, this edition follows two previous editions (2001 and 2010), and the need for this latest update exhibits just how rapidly the science of sea ice is developing. The 27 chapters are written by a team of more than 50 of the worlds’ leading experts in their fields. These combine to make the book the most comprehensive introduction to the physics, chemistry, biology and geology of sea ice that there is. This third edition of Sea Ice will be a key resource for all policy makers, researchers and students who work with the frozen oceans and seas.