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This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Oil 2019, the International Energy Agency’s annual outlook for global oil markets, examines the key issues in demand, supply, refining and trade to 2024. This year, the report covers the following themes: A changed supply picture led by the rise of the United States inworld markets thanks to rapidly-growing shale oil production, asit becomes a net exporter of crude oil and products. Supply growth in the non-OPEC world, including Brazil, Canada,Norway and Guyana; and a falling capacity for the OPECproducers. Demand growth underpinned by China and India and by thegrowing importance of petrochemicals as the industry invests tomeet rising consumer demand. And a detailed analysis of how the refining industry is grapplingwith the International Maritime Organisation’s new marine fuelrules, growing excess capacity, and the changing patterns ofglobal oil trade.
The scale of the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy has not been witnessed since the Great Depression. Isolation measures, implemented across the globe to contain the virus, confined hundreds of millions of people into their homes, bringing economic activities to a standstill. This crisis has impacted the oil and gas industry in an unprecedented manner. A massive decline in oil demand and a large oversupply, intensified by the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, has sent oil prices to levels unseen in decades. While the oil industry has faced several crises that have pushed it to find new ways to conduct business and adapt to changing conditions, the Covid-induced crisis has come when the industry is dealing with increased shareholder activism and intense pressure on the environmental front. Since this is a new phase for the industry, it could also become the catalyst that accelerates the transformation it has started to go through. Oil will continue to play an essential role in the energy mix for many decades. However, oil companies will have to navigate and manage an uncertain future as oil and gas projects will be riskier to develop and consequently require a higher rate of return. They will have to diversify their portfolios and continue shifting toward an integrated business model that embraces the changes caused by the energy transition and the growth in renewable and new technologies.