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The theory of Markov chains, although a special case of Markov processes, is here developed for its own sake and presented on its own merits. In general, the hypothesis of a denumerable state space, which is the defining hypothesis of what we call a "chain" here, generates more clear-cut questions and demands more precise and definitive an swers. For example, the principal limit theorem (§§ 1. 6, II. 10), still the object of research for general Markov processes, is here in its neat final form; and the strong Markov property (§ 11. 9) is here always applicable. While probability theory has advanced far enough that a degree of sophistication is needed even in the limited context of this book, it is still possible here to keep the proportion of definitions to theorems relatively low. . From the standpoint of the general theory of stochastic processes, a continuous parameter Markov chain appears to be the first essentially discontinuous process that has been studied in some detail. It is common that the sample functions of such a chain have discontinuities worse than jumps, and these baser discontinuities play a central role in the theory, of which the mystery remains to be completely unraveled. In this connection the basic concepts of separability and measurability, which are usually applied only at an early stage of the discussion to establish a certain smoothness of the sample functions, are here applied constantly as indispensable tools.
This textbook explores two distinct stochastic processes that evolve at random: weakly stationary processes and discrete parameter Markov processes. Building from simple examples, the authors focus on developing context and intuition before formalizing the theory of each topic. This inviting approach illuminates the key ideas and computations in the proofs, forming an ideal basis for further study. After recapping the essentials from Fourier analysis, the book begins with an introduction to the spectral representation of a stationary process. Topics in ergodic theory follow, including Birkhoff’s Ergodic Theorem and an introduction to dynamical systems. From here, the Markov property is assumed and the theory of discrete parameter Markov processes is explored on a general state space. Chapters cover a variety of topics, including birth–death chains, hitting probabilities and absorption, the representation of Markov processes as iterates of random maps, and large deviation theory for Markov processes. A chapter on geometric rates of convergence to equilibrium includes a splitting condition that captures the recurrence structure of certain iterated maps in a novel way. A selection of special topics concludes the book, including applications of large deviation theory, the FKG inequalities, coupling methods, and the Kalman filter. Featuring many short chapters and a modular design, this textbook offers an in-depth study of stationary and discrete-time Markov processes. Students and instructors alike will appreciate the accessible, example-driven approach and engaging exercises throughout. A single, graduate-level course in probability is assumed.
This new edition of Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications has been completely reformatted as a text, complete with end-of-chapter exercises, a new focus on management science, new applications of the models, and new examples with applications in financial risk management and modeling of financial data. This book consists of eight chapters. Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the classical theory on both discrete and continuous time Markov chains. The relationship between Markov chains of finite states and matrix theory will also be highlighted. Some classical iterative methods for solving linear systems will be introduced for finding the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. The chapter then covers the basic theories and algorithms for hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Markov decision processes (MDPs). Chapter 2 discusses the applications of continuous time Markov chains to model queueing systems and discrete time Markov chain for computing the PageRank, the ranking of websites on the Internet. Chapter 3 studies Markovian models for manufacturing and re-manufacturing systems and presents closed form solutions and fast numerical algorithms for solving the captured systems. In Chapter 4, the authors present a simple hidden Markov model (HMM) with fast numerical algorithms for estimating the model parameters. An application of the HMM for customer classification is also presented. Chapter 5 discusses Markov decision processes for customer lifetime values. Customer Lifetime Values (CLV) is an important concept and quantity in marketing management. The authors present an approach based on Markov decision processes for the calculation of CLV using real data. Chapter 6 considers higher-order Markov chain models, particularly a class of parsimonious higher-order Markov chain models. Efficient estimation methods for model parameters based on linear programming are presented. Contemporary research results on applications to demand predictions, inventory control and financial risk measurement are also presented. In Chapter 7, a class of parsimonious multivariate Markov models is introduced. Again, efficient estimation methods based on linear programming are presented. Applications to demand predictions, inventory control policy and modeling credit ratings data are discussed. Finally, Chapter 8 re-visits hidden Markov models, and the authors present a new class of hidden Markov models with efficient algorithms for estimating the model parameters. Applications to modeling interest rates, credit ratings and default data are discussed. This book is aimed at senior undergraduate students, postgraduate students, professionals, practitioners, and researchers in applied mathematics, computational science, operational research, management science and finance, who are interested in the formulation and computation of queueing networks, Markov chain models and related topics. Readers are expected to have some basic knowledge of probability theory, Markov processes and matrix theory.
This book provides an undergraduate-level introduction to discrete and continuous-time Markov chains and their applications, with a particular focus on the first step analysis technique and its applications to average hitting times and ruin probabilities. It also discusses classical topics such as recurrence and transience, stationary and limiting distributions, as well as branching processes. It first examines in detail two important examples (gambling processes and random walks) before presenting the general theory itself in the subsequent chapters. It also provides an introduction to discrete-time martingales and their relation to ruin probabilities and mean exit times, together with a chapter on spatial Poisson processes. The concepts presented are illustrated by examples, 138 exercises and 9 problems with their solutions.
Focusing on discrete-time-scale Markov chains, the contents of this book are an outgrowth of some of the authors' recent research. The motivation stems from existing and emerging applications in optimization and control of complex hybrid Markovian systems in manufacturing, wireless communication, and financial engineering. Much effort in this book is devoted to designing system models arising from these applications, analyzing them via analytic and probabilistic techniques, and developing feasible computational algorithms so as to reduce the inherent complexity. This book presents results including asymptotic expansions of probability vectors, structural properties of occupation measures, exponential bounds, aggregation and decomposition and associated limit processes, and interface of discrete-time and continuous-time systems. One of the salient features is that it contains a diverse range of applications on filtering, estimation, control, optimization, and Markov decision processes, and financial engineering. This book will be an important reference for researchers in the areas of applied probability, control theory, operations research, as well as for practitioners who use optimization techniques. Part of the book can also be used in a graduate course of applied probability, stochastic processes, and applications.
Probability, Markov Chains, Queues, and Simulation provides a modern and authoritative treatment of the mathematical processes that underlie performance modeling. The detailed explanations of mathematical derivations and numerous illustrative examples make this textbook readily accessible to graduate and advanced undergraduate students taking courses in which stochastic processes play a fundamental role. The textbook is relevant to a wide variety of fields, including computer science, engineering, operations research, statistics, and mathematics. The textbook looks at the fundamentals of probability theory, from the basic concepts of set-based probability, through probability distributions, to bounds, limit theorems, and the laws of large numbers. Discrete and continuous-time Markov chains are analyzed from a theoretical and computational point of view. Topics include the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations; irreducibility; the potential, fundamental, and reachability matrices; random walk problems; reversibility; renewal processes; and the numerical computation of stationary and transient distributions. The M/M/1 queue and its extensions to more general birth-death processes are analyzed in detail, as are queues with phase-type arrival and service processes. The M/G/1 and G/M/1 queues are solved using embedded Markov chains; the busy period, residual service time, and priority scheduling are treated. Open and closed queueing networks are analyzed. The final part of the book addresses the mathematical basis of simulation. Each chapter of the textbook concludes with an extensive set of exercises. An instructor's solution manual, in which all exercises are completely worked out, is also available (to professors only). Numerous examples illuminate the mathematical theories Carefully detailed explanations of mathematical derivations guarantee a valuable pedagogical approach Each chapter concludes with an extensive set of exercises