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"This paper explores liquidity movements in stock and Treasury bond markets over a period of more than 1800 trading days. Cross-market dynamics in liquidity are documented by estimating a vector autoregressive model for liquidity (that is, bid-ask spreads and depth), returns, volatility, and order flow in the stock and bond markets. We find that a shock to quoted spreads in one market affects the spreads in both markets, and that return volatility is an important driver of liquidity. Innovations to stock and bond market liquidity and volatility prove to be significantly correlated, suggesting that common factors drive liquidity and volatility in both markets. Monetary expansion increases equity market liquidity during periods of financial crises, and unexpected increases (decreases) in the federal funds rate lead to decreases (increases) in liquidity and increases (decreases) in stock and bond volatility. Finally, we find that flows to the stock and government bond sectors play an important role in forecasting stock and bond liquidity. The results establish a link between "macro" liquidity, or money flows, and "micro" or transactions liquidity"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site.
This article explores cross-market liquidity dynamics by estimating a vector autoregressive model for liquidity (bid-ask spread and depth, returns, volatility, and order flow in the stock and Treasury bond markets). Innovations to stock and bond market liquidity and volatility are significantly correlated, implying that common factors drive liquidity and volatility in these markets. Volatility shocks are informative in predicting shifts in liquidity. During crisis periods, monetary expansions are associated with increased liquidity. Moreover, money flows to government bond funds forecast bond market liquidity. The results establish a link between quot;macroquot; liquidity, or money flows, and quot;microquot; or transactions liquidity.
We provide a synthesis of the empirical evidence on market liquidity. The liquidity measurement literature has established standard measures of liquidity that apply to broad categories of market microstructure data. Specialized measures of liquidity have been developed to deal with data limitations in specific markets, to provide proxies from daily data, and to assess institutional trading programs. The general liquidity literature has established local cross-sectional patterns, global cross-sectional patterns, and time-series patterns.
Credit spreads express how markets evaluate the riskiness of corporate bonds compared to risk-free investments. Since credit spreads have been highly volatile especially during the last decade it is important for academics and practitioners alike to understand the dynamic interdependencies between credit spreads and their determinants. Based on a sample of European corporate bonds and different macroeconomic variables the author analyzes the determinants of credit spreads during the period of 1999 to 2009. With a macro-finance term structure model he shows that the European corporate bond market is largely integrated with some remaining segmentation. Furthermore, panel regressions yield that declining liquidity leads to a significant widening of credit spreads especially during the recent financial crisis. Finally, he demonstrates based on a cointegration analysis that a long-term relationship exists between credit spreads and their determinants and that credit spreads were significantly overpriced after the collapse of Lehman Brothers but have almost returned to equilibrium towards the end of 2009.
Based on a large and representative data set we investigate the liquidity of Eurozone government bonds in ordinary times as well as in periods of market turmoil looking at the behavior of several liquidity indicators from 2005 to 2012. We find that the effect of adverse market conditions on liquidity strongly depends on individual bond's characteristics. We then analyze the relative performance of different liquidity metrics. This allows us to discuss the appropriateness of the inclusion criteria for liquid assets used by the Basel Committee and the European Union. Our evidence argues for rules on HQLAs that should constrain the eligibility of government bonds depending on their characteristics (primarily, duration and rating). We also study the persistence of liquidity measures over time to assess which indicators might be used to anticipate future bond liquidity, especially ahead of market-wide crises. Based on rank correlation analysis we find that a wide array of liquidity metrics can provide stable indications over time.
"The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the market, and that participants have quite diverse information about the security's fundamentals. As a result, the order flow is a complex mix of information and noise, and a consensus price only emerges gradually over time as the trading process evolves and the participants interpret the actions of other traders. Thus, a security's actual transaction price may deviate from its fundamental value, as it would be assessed by a fully informed set of investors. The book takes these deviations seriously, and explains why and how they emerge in the trading process and are eventually eliminated. The authors draw on a vast body of theoretical insights and empirical findings on security price formation that have come to form a well-defined field within financial economics known as "market microstructure." Focusing on liquidity and price discovery, the book analyzes the tension between the two, pointing out that when price-relevant information reaches the market through trading pressure rather than through a public announcement, liquidity may suffer. It also confronts many striking phenomena in securities markets and uses the analytical tools and empirical methods of market microstructure to understand them. These include issues such as why liquidity changes over time and differs across securities, why large trades move prices up or down, and why these price changes are subsequently reversed, and why we observe temporary deviations from asset fair values"--
This paper finds that Government of Canada benchmark bonds tend to be more illiquid over the subsequent month when there is a large increase in government debt supply. The result is both statistically and economically significant, stronger for the long-term than the short-term sector, and is robust when other macro factors are controlled for. The result is consistent with the interpretation that risk-averse dealers tend to provide less liquidity to the market when facing increased duration risks brought by large debt issuance. The fact that the newly issued bonds are much less liquid may also contribute to the impact of debt supply on market liquidity.
Bachelor Thesis from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,0, University of Mannheim, language: English, abstract: This paper aims to answer the question of whether post-crisis regulatory interventions caused a decline in liquidity. To serve this purpose, it investigates how individual provisions affect the market making business and how the corporate bond market changed in response to regulations. The paper approaches the issue by structuring theoretical and empirical evidence of corporate bond liquidity. It develops regulations impact levels from particular to aggregate, facilitating a perspicacious analysis. Important to note, the study attempts to assess neither welfare effects nor the desirability of regulations. After the financial crisis, regulators intervened to enhance the resilience of the banking system. Their provisions range from capital and liquidity standards to the prohibition of single activities considered too risky. However, concerns arise that post-crisis regulations harm liquidity by imposing constraints on its providers. When liquidity is low, investors that want to trade large volumes must wait for counterparties or accept to trade below market prices. Therefore, in certain financial markets like that for corporate bonds, intermediaries emerged to facilitate market functioning. They enable investors to trade immediately, reconciling imbalances in supply and demand. Illiquidity is costly for the economy as investors require compensation for holding riskier bonds. Amihud and Mendelson provide cross-sectional and time-series evidence of the resulting illiquidity discount. Hence, if regulations reduced liquidity, they would cause a depreciation of prices. Also, lower liquidity implies higher cost of debt and transaction costs, as well as a less efficient resource allocation. The regulatory impact on liquidity is, therefore, highly important for policymakers and investors.
The three essays study the US corporate bond market with special attention to bond liquidity. All essays are empirical studies which rely heavily on the availability of transactions data. Earlier studies had to use quoted bond prices for empirical studies, but with the introduction of the TRACE system and with the following dissemination of transaction prices the data quality on corporate bonds has improved immensely. In the years after 2000 a range of studies assessed the performance of structural credit risk models and found that they were not able to fully explain the size of the average credit spread for corporate bonds. Huang and Huang (2003) suggested (among others) that the remaining non-default-component of the credit spread was an illiquidity premium. Using transaction data this thesis studies the impact of illiquidity and trading frictions on corporate bonds.