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Loss of coastal land has been occurring along the Upper Texas Gulf Coast over the historical record. This loss of land will continue into the future, probably at increasing rates due to accelerated sea-level rise caused by global warming (i.e. the "greenhouse effect"). Three scenarios for shoreline retreat and land loss to the year 2050 are developed for the uppermost 200 km of the Texas Coast, between Sabine Pass and the mouth of the Trinity River. The scenarios (baseline, low-rise and high-rise) integrate best available estimates of sea-level rise in the next century with empirical relations between relative sea-level rise and shoreline movement during a baseline period (1930-1974 or 1982, depending on the availability of shoreline movement data) for each of 10 shoreline segments. Loss of coastal land results from both erosion and submergence of the coastline due to relative sea-level rise. Relative sea-level (RSL) rise, in turn, encompasses eustatic rise and land-surface subsidence. Baseline rates of RSL rise at Pier 21 on Galveston are 6.9 mm/yr (1930-1974) and 7.6 mm/yr (1930-1982). Data from nonsubsiding tidal gages along the Florida Gulf Coast are used to define a 2.2 mm/yr baseline rate of eustatic rise within the Gulf of Mexico. Land-surface subsidence accounts for the residual 4.7 and 5.4 mm/yr. Land-surface subsidence within the study area is the result of undifferentiated natural consolidation of clay-rich sediments and regional subsurface depressurization caused by production of oil and gas. Groundwater pumpage is minimal within the area and is not considered a cause of subsidence, although large-scale pumping in the metropolitan Houston area has probably caused subsidence along the eastern shore of Trinity Bay. The baseline scenario assumes a constant rate of RSL rise, resulting in a rise of 0.45-0.49 m by 2050. At 2050, RSL rises of 0.66-0.70 min the low-rise scenario and 0.88-0.92 m in the high-rise scenario are predicted by combining low- and high-rise estimates of eustatic rise developed from a synthesis of nine recently published projections with a constant baseline rate of subsidence. The multiplicative factors of approximately 1.5 for the low-rise and 2.0 for the high-rise scenario are calculated from the ratios of projected RSL rise to baseline RSL rise at 2050. These factors are integrated into the baseline relation between RSL rise and shoreline movement to estimate shoreline displacement and subsequent loss of land by 2050 in each of the 10 shoreline segments. The estimated net change of land area by 2050 for the entire study area coastline is -17.2 km2 (4248 acres) in the baseline scenario, -25.2 km2 (6224 acres) in the low-rise scenario, and -33.8 km2 (8349 acres) in the high-rise scenario. Shoreline retreat and land loss scenarios developed in this study represent conservative estimates. Recent rates of relative sea-level rise (between 1958 and the mid-1980s) at Pier 21 and at Sabine Pass exceed 11 mm/yr, 50-60% higher than the calculated long-term rates of 6.9 and 7.6 mm/yr, used as the baseline for this analysis. Therefore projected RSL rise by 2050 are conservative and may underestimate shoreline displacement and coastal land loss. These projections should be considered in the future development of and use of the Texas Coast.
Shortly after the creation of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (Free University Brussels) in 1970, currently labelled as VUB, a Department of Quaternary Geology was installed within the Faculty of Science in 1974. At the beginning it dealt mainly with the study of periglacial loess deposits of the Pleistocene Glacial Period in Central Belgium and with coastal deposits in relation to sea level rise during the warm Holocene period covering the last 10,000 years, in which the dawn of civilization took place step by step. Today the same research teams widen their scope of interest: they are presently studying the loess plateau in the People's Republic of China and the world-wide problems associated with sea level rise, coastal erosion being one of the most devastating natural hazards. More and more emphasis is put on problems concerning environmental engineering and those dealing with global change. Since 1975 UNESCO sponsored a number of symposia of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA), whose secretariat was located on the VUB Campus grounds from 1973 to 1982. In 1981 the Applied Geology Department ofthe Faculty of Applied Sciences was created. The NATO-Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) , organized in Fuerteventura (Canary Islands, Spain) in March 1989 was a climax of this series of Global Change gatherings. As Rector of the VUB, I am satisfied that the VUB, through its Earth Technology Institute, of both USA and Belgium could cooperate with NATO and the National Science Foundations in cosponsoring such an initiative.
Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences was first conceived, published, and disseminated by the Center for Information and Numerical Oata Analysis and Synthesis (CINOAS) * at Purdue. University in 1957, starting its coverage of theses with the academic year 1955. Beginning with Volume 13, the printing and dissemination phases of the activity were transferred to University Microfilms/Xerox of Ann Arbor, Michigan, with the thought that such an arrangement would be more beneficial to the academic and general scientific and technical community. After five years of this joint undertaking we had concluded that it was in the interest of all con cerned if the printing and distribution of the volumes were handled by an interna tional publishing house to assure improved service and broader dissemination. Hence, starting with Volume 18, Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences has been disseminated on a worldwide basis by Plenum Publishing Cor poration of New York, and in the same year the coverage was broadened to include Canadian universities. All back issues can also be ordered from Plenum. We have reported in Volume 33 (thesis year 1988) a total of 13,273 theses titles from 23 Canadian and 1 85 United States universities. We are sure that this broader base for these titles reported will greatly enhance the value of this important annual reference work. While Volume 33 reports theses submitted in 1988, on occasion, certain univer sities do report theses submitted in previous years but not reported at the time.
Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.