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The primary approach to address climate change in China has been the use of CO2 intensity targets coupled with targets for low carbon energy deployment. We evaluate the impact of extending similar targets through 2050 on China's energy use profile and CO2 emissions trajectory using the China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM). The C-GEM is a global computable equilibrium model that includes energy and economic data provided by China's statistical agencies, calibration of savings, labor productivity, and capital productivity dynamics specific to China's stage of development, and regional aggregation that resolves China's major trading partners. We analyze the combined impact of extending CO2 intensity targets, implemented via a cap-and-trade program, and low carbon energy policies (directives for nuclear power expansion and feed-in tariffs for wind, solar, and biomass energy) through 2050. Although with the policy, simulated CO2 emissions are around 43% lower in 2050 relative to a reference (No Policy) counterfactual, China's CO2 emissions still increase by over 60% between 2010 and 2050. Curbing the rise in China's CO2 emissions will require fully implementing a CO2 price, which will need to rise to levels higher than $25/ton in order to achieve China's stated goal of peaking CO2 emissions by 2030.
The China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM) is a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that captures the interaction of production, consumption and trade among multiple global regions and sectors -- including five energy-intensive sectors -- to analyze global energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economic activity. The C-GEM model supplies a research platform to analyze China's climate policy and its global implications, and is one of the major output and analysis tools developed by the China Energy and Climate Project (CECP) -- a cooperative project between the Tsinghua University Institute of Energy, Environment, and Economy and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. This report serves as technical documentation to describe the C-GEM model. We provide detailed information on the model structure, underlying database, key parameters and its calibration, and important assumptions about the model. We also provide model results for the reference scenario and a sensitivity analysis for two key parameters: autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) and the elasticity of substitution between energy and value added.
China is the world's leading emitter of heat-trapping gases by a wide margin. There is no solution to climate change without China. In his Guide to Chinese Climate Policy, David Sandalow examines China's emissions, explores the impacts of climate change in China, provides a short history of China's climate policies and discusses China's principal climate policies today. This up-to-date Guide is an invaluable resource for anyone interested in China, climate change or both. "This comprehensive guide by a leading authority on the climate change policies of China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is the most up-to-date reference available, and belongs on the desks and bookshelves of researchers and practitioners alike." -- Robert Stavins, A. J. Meyer Professor of Energy and Economic Development, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University "David Sandalow's extraordinary energy and environmental expertise coupled with his rich governmental experience at the Department of Energy, State Department and National Security Council are reflected in his Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2019. His fact-packed analysis of China's climate policies, both good and bad, and how they compare with other nations' policy efforts, is invaluable. Professor Sandalow's excellent study is extremely timely and deserves a high level of attention." -- Amb. Carla Hills, Chair, National Committee on US-China Relations and former US Trade Representative "This is an excellent, readable, practical discussion of climate policy in a country whose climate policy is an indispensable ingredient to combatting climate change. David Sandalow is the perfect guide, deeply knowledgeable about China and practiced in the hands-on business of climate and energy diplomacy." -- Todd Stern, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution and former US Special Climate Envoy "In the global effort to protect the climate, no country matters more than China. David Sandalow has written the definitive guide to Chinese actions--both at home and abroad. Impressive in scope and depth, Sandalow's study puts a spotlight on many important signs of progress along with some challenges that are deeply worrying." - David Victor, Professor of International Relations, University of California at San Diego and Co-Chair, Brookings Initiative on Energy and Climate Change "The energy transformation going on in China is critical to whether the world succeeds or fails in solving the climate crisis and that is why David Sandalow's important, authoritative and timely Guide to that transformation is so welcome." -- John Podesta, Founder and Director, Center for American Progress "David Sandalow's Guide to Chinese Climate Policies 2019 succeeds in achieving a seemingly impossible goal - to provide a concise, clear, and objective explication and evaluation of China's wide-ranging, multifaceted policies to address climate change. This deeply researched volume is a truly outstanding resource for anyone interested in this vitally important topic." -- Kenneth Lieberthal, Professor Emeritus, University of Michigan "David Sandalow's Guide to Chinese Climate Policy provides a comprehensive and insightful overview of both the positive and not-so-positive recent developments in China as it balances economic growth and development with climate change mitigation goals." - Nan Zhou, Head, International Energy Analysis Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
China’s recent climate-energy policy, an outcome of contemporary challenges, has generated conflict of interest amongst major stakeholders. Coupled with a boost in demand for oil, gas and coal, as well as a rapid growth in wind and solar power, it has not only affected domestic fossil fuel and renewable energy providers, but has also provoked a resource boom, affecting development pathways internationally. This book therefore seeks to examine the economic, social and ecological effects associated with China’s climate-energy policy. Assessing how the policy has been and will be formulated and implemented, it analyses the changing use of energy, CO2 emissions and GDP, as well as social and environmental impacts both domestically and internationally. It presents in-depth case studies on specific policies in China and on its resource exporting countries, such as Indonesia, Australia, Myanmar and Mongolia. At the same time, using quantitative data, it provides detailed input-output and applied computable general equilibrium analyses. Arguing that China has actively advanced its climate-energy policy to become a leader of global climate governance, it demonstrates that China ultimately relocates the cost of its climate-energy policy to resource exporting countries. This book will be of great interest to students and scholars of energy, the environment and sustainability, as well as Chinese Studies and economics.
This open access book is an encyclopaedic analysis of the current and future energy system of the world’s most populous country and second biggest economy. What happens in China impacts the planet. In the past 40 years China has achieved one of the most remarkable economic growth rates in history. Its GDP has risen by a factor of 65, enabling 850,000 people to rise out of poverty. Growth on this scale comes with consequences. China is the world’s biggest consumer of primary energy and the world’s biggest emitter of CO2 emissions. Creating a prosperous and harmonious society that delivers economic growth and a high quality of life for all will require radical change in the energy sector, and a rewiring of the economy more widely. In China’s Energy Revolution in the Context of the Global Energy Transition, a team of researchers from the Development Research Center of the State Council of China and Shell International examine how China can revolutionise its supply and use of energy. They examine the entire energy system: coal, oil, gas, nuclear, renewables and new energies in production, conversion, distribution and consumption. They compare China with case studies and lessons learned in other countries. They ask which technology, policy and market mechanisms are required to support the change and they explore how international cooperation can smooth the way to an energy revolution in China and across the world. And, they create and compare scenarios on possible pathways to a future energy system that is low-carbon, affordable, secure and reliable.
To understand China’s climate change policy is not easy, as the country itself is a paradox actor in global climate political economy: it used to take very suspicious stand on the scientific certainty of climate change, but recently it has become a signatory and firm supporter of the Kyoto Protocol; it stubbornly refuses to accept any emission cutting obligations, but has gradually taken the lead in developing renewable energies and carbon trading business; it accuses western countries of their hypocrisy and irresponsibility, but ironically maintains close cooperation with them on low-carbon projects; it fears climate mitigation commitments may hamper the economic growth, but meanwhile spends most lavishly on the research and development of clean energy and other green technologies. This book, unlike other researches which explain China’s climate policy from pure economics or politics/foreign policy perspectives, provides a panoramic view over China’s climate-related regulations, laws and policies as well as various government and non-government actors involved in the climate politics. Through analyzing the political and socioeconomic factors that influence the world’s largest carbon emitter’s participation into the global collective actions against climate change, the book argues that as a vast continental state with a mix of authoritarian politics and a quasi-liberalised market economy, China’s climate policy process is fragmented and self-defensive, seemingly having little room for significant compromises or changes; yet in response to the mounting international pressures and energy security concerns and attracted by lucrative carbon businesses and clean energy market, the regime shows some sort of better-than-expected flexibility and shrewdness in coping with the newly-emerged challenges. Its future climate actions, whether effective or not, are vital not only for the success of the global mitigation effort, but for China’s own economic restructure and sustainable development. The book is a unique research monograph on the evolving domestic and foreign policies taken by the Chinese government to tackle climate change challenges. It concludes that instead of being motivated by concern about its vulnerability to climate change, Chinese climate-related policies have been mainly driven by its intensive attention to energy security, business opportunities lying in emerging green industries and image consideration in the global climate politics.
This pioneering book provides a comprehensive, rigorous and in-depth analysis of China's energy and environmental policy for the transition towards a low-carbon economy. This unique book focuses on concrete, constructive and realistic solutions to China's unprecedented environmental pollution and rising greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and energy security as a result of steeply rising oil imports. It provides an up-to-date factual analysis of China's efforts and commitments to improve energy efficiency, to cut pollutants and to increase the use of renewable energy to create a low-carbon economy. The author explores many of the policies and measures that China has put in place to save energy and reduce emissions, as well as examines new policies and measures in order for China to be successful. Energy and Environmental Policy in China will prove to be of great value to practitioners and policymakers, as well as to academies and students in the areas of economics, environmental studies, Asian studies, regional and urban studies, law, political science and sociology.
China faces many modernization challenges, but perhaps none is more pressing than that posed by climate change. China must find a new economic growth model that is simultaneously environmentally sustainable, can free it from its dependency on fossil fuels, and lift living standards for the majority of its population. But what does such a model look like? And how can China best make the transition from its present macro-economic structure to a low-carbon future? This ground-breaking economic study, led by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Chinese Economists 50 Forum, brings together leading international thinkers in economics, climate change, and development, to tackle some of the most challenging issues relating to China's low-carbon development. This study maps out a deep carbon reduction scenario and analyzes economic policies that shift carbon use, and shows how China can take strong and decisive action to make deep reductions in carbon emission over the next forty years while maintaining high economic growth and minimizing adverse effects of a low-carbon transition. Moreover, these reductions can be achieved within the finite global carbon budget for greenhouse gas emissions, as determined by the hard constraints of climate science. The authors make the compelling case that a transition to a low-carbon economy is an essential part of China's development and modernization. Such a transformation would also present opportunities for China to improve its energy security and move its economy higher up the international value chain. They argue that even in these difficult economic times, climate change action may present more opportunities than costs. Such a transformation, for China and the rest of the world, will not be easy. But it is possible, necessary and worthwhile to pursue.
Global climate change is one of the challenges ever to confront humanity with the largest scale, widest scope and most far-reaching influence. As the biggest developing country with the largest population, China is the world’s leading consumer of coal and energy, and one of the worst-hit victims of global warming. Consequently, China should assume its responsibility in making contributions to global sustainable development. Based on the principles of fairness and efficiency, this study creatively puts forward two principles of global governance on climate change. The first entails replacement of the two-group schema of developed and developing countries with a four-group model based on the Human Development Index (HDI). The second entails application of the resulting model to specify the major emitters as principal contributors to emission reduction. In addition, it proposes a two-step strategy for China to tackle the issue of climate change. This book makes it clear that China should proactively engage in relevant international cooperation, actively participate in international climate negotiations, make clear commitments to reduce emissions, and assume the obligations of a responsible power to achieve sustainable and green development.
A volume on the political economy of clean energy transition in developed and developing regions, with a focus on the issues that different countries face as they transition from fossil fuels to lower carbon technologies.