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This futures book reflects the global trends and events of the recent past of today that are bringing about change to the world's political, economic, social, technological, and military environments. Provides a set of plausible scenarios against which users can build policies and decisions while anticipating and judging their consequences before implementation. Useful for strategic planning through active and reserve components of the U.S. military. Also useful for long-range planning by business, industry, academia, and other private and governmental organizations. Charts, tables and drawings. Also includes a 21-page study, "Creating Strategic Visions."
This paper predicts an alternate scenario to Korean reunification to those currently being discussed in and out of South Korea. Much of what has been written discusses the demise of the present North Korean government along a spectrum of turbulence, from gradual decay to violent implosion. The predicted results also vary from peaceful absorption by the South Korean government to a 'war of desperation' scenario precipitated by the decaying Northern regime in a last ditch effort to retain power. This paper explores a scenario where the two Koreas end up as secondary players in the future of the Korean peninsula. The primary regional actor to emerge will be China. As the ascendant regional power, China will shape events on the Korean Peninsula to fit its own future vision of Northeast Asia. It is further proposed that this Chinese vision will seek to maintain the peaceful division of North and South Korea in the short term (10 to 20 years) following the demise of the present North Korean government. China is seen, in this scenario, as moving unilaterally, on the basis of long-standing agreements with North Korea, into North Korea as the government implodes. It is in the Chinese interest to prevent the uncontrolled rise of a new, potentially powerful reunified Korean regional competitor. Additionally, China will seek to minimize United States' influence in the region, For obvious historical, military and economic reasons, the Japanese desire to maintain the geopolitical and economic status quo will cause them to play a supporting role in the Chinese effort. This move, together with its predictable control of the Spratly Islands oil and natural gas reserves, an already powerful military, and rapidly growing economy, will put China in a position to much more effectively influence the future of the region.
Terrorism: Commentary on Security Documents is a series that provides primary source documents and expert commentary on the worldwide counter-terrorism effort. Among the documents collected are transcripts of Congressional testimony, reports by such federal government bodies as the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and the Government Accountability Office (GAO), and case law covering issues related to terrorism. Most volumes carry a single theme, and inside each volume the documents appear within topic-based categories. The series also includes a subject index and other indices that guide the user through this complex area of the law. Volume 124, U.S. Approaches to Global Security Challenges, analyzes U.S. strategy toward security threats across the globe and identifies the beginnings of a shift away from a reliance on military power to the application of various types of civilian power which utilize a multinational approach. The documents introduced by Douglas Lovelace include U.S. perspectives on the international security situation generally as well as reports on more specific topics, such as the security situation in Afghanistan, terrorism in East Africa, the evolving role of NATO, and cooperation between the U.S. and other governments (such as the EU and China) in the fight against terrorism.
NATO officials plan to unveil the new NATO Strategic Concept during the Alliance's summit in Portugal at the end of this year. This monograph focuses on the impact the Strategic Concept will have on the Alliance. It analyzes recent trends within NATO and their implications, and describes four possible future scenarios which would impact on NATO. The Alliance membership has grown to 28 countries and it faces problems with changing demographics, an awkward relationship with Russia, a war in Afghanistan and threats of global jihad. Muslim immigration into Europe and population aging will have a great impact on European views of the Alliance. NATO must decide how closely it wants to work and coordinate with Russia in future endeavors. The most important issue at hand is how NATO is going to fare coming out of the war in Afghanistan. It is imperative that the New Strategic Concept address NATO goals in Afghanistan and the ways and means of accomplishing those goals. Defined goals will give member nations objectives while formulating national defense plans. Getting the Strategic Concept right is the first step in maintaining the health of the Alliance.--Summary from book.
Discusses strategies for military policymaking and foreign involvements in the post-Cold War era. -- Back cover.
This edited collection highlights the valuable ontological and creative insights gathered from anticipation studies, which orients itself to the future in order to recreate the present. The gathered essays engage with many writers from speculative metaphysics to poetic philosophy, ancient writing systems to the fringes of pataphysics. The book situates itself as a creative intervention in and with various thinkers, designers, artists, scientists and poets to offer insight into ways of anticipating. It brings together philosophical practices for which creativity is both a fundamental area of consideration and a mode of working, a characterization of recent Continental Philosophy which takes a departure from traditional futures studies thinking. This book will be of interest to scholars and research in futures studies, anticipation, philosophy, creative practice and theories about creative practice, as well as the intersections between philosophy, creativity and business.