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This survey is a product of the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2001 Working Group, a project of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. Sponsored by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the working group is an independent, honest-broker effort intended to build intellectual capital for the upcoming QDR. More specifically, it aims to frame issues, develop options, and provide insights for the Chairman, the services, and the next administration in three areas: defense strategy, criteria for sizing conventional forces, and force structure for 2005-2010. One of the group's initial tasks was to assess the future security environment to the year 2025. This was pursued by surveying the available literature to identify areas of consensus and debate. The goal was to conduct an assessment that would be far more comprehensive than any single research project or group effort could possibly produce. This survey documents major areas of agreement and disagreement across a range of studies completed since the last QDR in 1997. Because it distills a variety of sources and organizes and compares divergent views, this volume makes a unique contribution to the literature. It also provides a particularly strong set of insights and assumptions on which both strategists and force planners can draw in the next Quadrennial Defense Review. This survey does not claim to predict or illustrate all possible wars that Anmrica might face between now and the year 2025. Rather, it attempts, through analysis of representative and reputable sources, to incorporate the most likely characteristics of the future security environment into a single scenario, while heightening our awareness of dissenting viewpoints and plausible wild cards.
Since the crucial maritime battles that were fought during the Second World War in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the post-war period, which saw a naval standoff between a vast US navy and a growing Soviet navy, the focus of international maritime power has changed. Major maritime powers have deployed warships, aircraft carriers and heavy land forces around the globe, for purposes of diplomacy, such as in maintaining far-flung alliances; for deterrent purposes, such as in the Taiwan Straits; for warfighting, such as in its crucial support roles in recent conflicts in Afghanistan and both Gulf Wars; and for complex emergencies, such as tsunami and earthquake rescue in Indonesia and Pakistan. Increasingly, maritime power is employed in counter-terrorism, such as in joint patrols, counter-terrorism exercises and in intercepting ships suspected of carrying weapons of mass destruction. The Politics of Maritime Power is an exploration of the contemporary facets of maritime power, particularly as an instrument of the state, in the post-Second World War era. This reference volume is divided into four parts, with chapters exploring various aspects of modern maritime power written by maritime experts; a series of maps which show major maritime zones; a glossary which contains over 240 entries on various aspects of maritime power; and a detailed bibliography.
The book is the definitive conceptual and historical introduction to the concept of anti-access strategies. Unlike current studies, it is not simply technology focused. Nor is it primarily intended as critique of the current Air-Sea Battle concept. It combines conceptual thinking with historical examples and potential scenarios in order to identify options for future defense planning.Strategies of “anti-access,” also known as “area denial” (more recently combined into the awkward acronym “A2/AD”) are presumed to be the primary threats to the employment of U.S. military forces in overseas crises. This presumption has gradually evolved into a joint concept of “operational access.” Anti-access capabilities appear to be the current military posture of the People’s Republic of China and Islamic Republic of Iran. The study of anti-access or area denial strategies for use against American power projection capabilities has strong naval roots—which have been largely ignored by the most influential commentators. In reality, denial of access was the Soviet Navy’s operational objective during the Cold War. The first use of the actual anti-access term can be traced to a series of “anti-Navy” studies by the Office of Net Assessment designed to examine the ability of the U.S. Navy to carry out its Maritime Strategy and, later, “…From the Sea” strategic vision. Sustained long-range power projection is both a unique strength of U.S. military forces and a requirement for an activist foreign policy and forward defense. In more recent years, the logic of the anti-access approach has been identified by the Department of Defense as a threat to this U.S. capability and the joint force; countering it is one of the defense priorities identified in the President’s directions issued this past January. In addition to potential regional powers, a number of think-tanks have suggested that non-state actors, such as terrorist organizations, are developing anti-access/area denial capabilities. The book’s conclusions differ from most commentary on anti-access. Rather than a technology-driven post-Cold War phenomenon, the anti-access approach has been a routine element of grand strategy used by strategically weaker powers to confront stronger powers throughout history. But they have been largely unsuccessful when confronting a stronger maritime power. Although high technology weapons capabilities enhance the threat, they also can be used to mitigate the threat. Rather than arguing against reliance on maritime forces—presumably because they are no longer survivable—the historical analysis argues that maritime capabilities are key in “breaking the great walls.”
This book examines the nature and consequences of strategic competition between the US and China, which affects the global security landscape and the emerging security architecture across the broader Asia-Pacific region. The author illustrates the evolution of Sino-US security interactions from the anti-Soviet alliance, to temporary marginalization, to eventual strategic competition and examines cases that could potentially escalate into greater conflicts. The analysis offers tantalizing glimpses into both the dangers and promising opportunities presented by this strategic fork in the road, making it of great interest to researchers and scholars in the fields of international relations and security studies.
Terrorism: Commentary on Security Documents is a hardbound series that provides primary-source documents and expert commentary on the worldwide counter-terrorism effort. Among the documents collected are transcripts of Congressional testimony, reports by such federal government bodies as the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and the Government Accountability Office (GAO), and case law covering issues related to terrorism. Most volumes carry a single theme, and inside each volume the documents appear within topic-based categories. The series also includes a subject index and other indices that guide the user through this complex area of the law. Volume 119, Catastrophic Possibilities Threatening U.S. Security, discusses the nightmare scenario of a catastrophic attack on the United States. While the U.S. national security apparatus remains focused on the "wars" in Iraq and Afghanistan and appears to be postulating a future international security environment defined largely by threats increasingly posed by weak, failing, and failed states, astute strategists are not discounting the possibility of a catastrophic attack on the United States. In this volume, Douglas Lovelace presents a number of documents that help describe, explain, and assess the nature and severity of the threat of a catastrophic attack. Offering expert commentary for each section, Lovelace groups the documents into three categories: Catastrophic Potentialities in the International Security Environment, Countering the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Materials, and Catastrophic Cyber Attack. Documents include a Department of Defense overview of the four categories of strategic challenges, a Government Accountability Office report addressing weapons of mass destruction and the actions needed to allocate resources for counterproliferation programs, and an insightful overview of the threat of catastrophic cyber-attack by the Department of Homeland Security. The commentary and primary sources in Volume 119 will apprise researchers and practitioners of international law and national security of the perils of a catastrophic attack against the United States posed by terrorists, radicals, state failure, and humanitarian disasters.
Twenty years from now, security issues may dictate that counter-terrorism is more important than operations to secure stability and rule of law. Security at the border, ethnic demography, and the perspective of the next generation will determine what strategic choices Canada will make about special military operations and the elite forces developed to carry out special missions.