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Instability of commodity prices has always been a major concern of the farmers, processors, merchandisers as well as the consumers in an agriculture-dominated economy. Farmers’ direct exposure to price fluctuations makes it too risky for them to invest in other wise profitable activities. There are various ways to cope with this problem. The agriculture commodity market is one of them. It serves a risk-shifting function and can be used to lock-in prices in advance instead of relying on uncertain price developments in future. Apart from being a vehicle for risk transfer among hedgers and from hedgers to speculators, these markets also play a major role in price discovery. The primary objective of this book is to impart the basic knowledge of derivatives market, types of derivative markets, agriculture futures market, regulator of commodity market, commodity exchanges, price discovery in commodity market and awareness among various stakeholders of commodity market.
Originally published in 1989, this book is a clear and thorough guide to the workings and purpose of the futures markets. It begins by explaining the role of futures and options in agriculture and their uses in reducing risks and maximizing profits. The state of the futures industry in the USA, Europe, Japan and the smaller exchanges elsewhere during the 1980s is examined, the pattern of price movements analysed, and the major background factors which influence price movements discussed. The regulatory environment in the US and UK is analysed, and there is a thorough explanation of fundamental and technical approaches to price forecasting and of strategies to maximize profits from trading. Detailed profiles of the major agricultural commodities traded on futures markets comprise the second part of this comprehensive handbook. The major markets, price movements, and trading opportunities are outlined for each commodity in turn. The book concludes by discussing the contemporary issues facing futures trading, and the role of the markets in the agricultural trade of developing countries.
Since the mid 2000s, an increasing financialization of commodity futures markets is taking place. This has fueled an ongoing discussion about the effect of financial investments on the development of commodity prices. Against this background, the trading activities of financial speculators also come to the fore. There is the concern that such speculators can cause irrational overshootings of agricultural commodity prices, e.g. in the event of global production shocks. In such an event the decrease of total supply induces a price surge menacing food security in developing countries. Yet, the question emerges whether speculation aggravates this price increase, eventually inducing a price bubble. The relevance of this concern is reinforced by the fact that due to climate change an increased frequency and severity of global agricultural production shortfalls is at stake. If speculation evokes an additional threat to food security in the event of a production shock, the political agenda should not be confined to focus solely on the adaptation to climate change. Instead, it is then also necessary to address speculative activities on agricultural commodity markets. This book scrutinises whether speculative bubbles can be identified in the event of severe global production shocks. For this, a framework for tracing the transmission of the futures price's development on the spot market is developed. Using annual data from 1979-2012 for maize it is analysed whether production shock related price bubbles occurred.
The price of food has become very volatile in recent years for a variety of reasons, including a strengthened connection between the prices of agricultural commodities and other commodities such as oil and metals, more volatile production due to more frequent droughts and floods, and a rising demand for biofuels. Understanding the determinants of agricultural commodity prices and the connections between prices has become a high priority for academics and applied economists who are interested in agricultural marketing and trade, policy analysis and international rural development. This book builds on the various theories of commodity price relationships in competitive markets over space, time and form. It also builds on the various theories of commodity price relationships in markets that are non-competitive because processing firms exploit market power, private information distorts commodity bidding, and bargaining is required to establish prices when the marketing transaction involves a single seller and buyer. Each chapter features a spreadsheet model to analyze a particular real-world case study or plausible scenario, and issues considered include: the reasons for commodity price differences across regions the connection between the release of information and the rapid adjustment in a network of commodity prices the specific linkage between energy and food prices bidding strategies by large exporters who compete in import tenders The simulation results that are obtained from the spreadsheet models reveal many important features of commodity prices. The models are also well suited for additional "what if" analysis such as examining how the pattern of trade in agricultural commodities may change if shipping becomes more expensive because of substantial increase in the world price of oil. Model building and the analysis of the simulation results is a highly effective way to develop critical thinking skills and to view agricultural commodity prices in a rigorous and unique way. This is an ideal resource for economics students looking to gain develop skills in the areas of Agricultural Marketing, Commodity Price Analysis, Models of Commodity Markets, Quantitative Methods and Commodity Futures Markets.