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The Maastricht Treaty, signed in December 1991, set a timetable for the European Community's economic and monetary union (EMU) and clearly defined the institutional policy changes necessary for its achievement. Subsequent developments have demonstrated, however, the importance of many key issues in the transition to EMU that were largely neglected at the time. This volume reports the proceedings of a joint CEPR conference with the Banco de Portugal, held in January 1992. In these papers, leading international experts address the instability of the transition to EMU, the long-run implications of monetary union and the single market for growth and convergence in Europe. They also consider the prospects for inflation and fiscal convergence, regional policy and the integration of financial markets and fiscal systems. Attention focuses on adjustment mechanisms with differentiated shocks, region-specific business cycles and excessive industrial concentration and the cases for a two-speed EMU and fiscal federalism.
When the European Monetary System (EMS) was created in 1978, economists on both sides of the Atlantic predicted its early failure. Today, EMS is alive and well, continuing to defy conventional economic wisdom. The authors address three major questions about the European Monetary System (EMS): how it came into being, how it works and how it may evolve into a fully-fledged monetary union.
We build a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous growth to assess the role of cross-country differences in product and labor market regulations for long-term growth and for the adjustment to shocks. We show that with endogenous growth, there is no reason to expect real income convergence. Large shocks, through endogenous TFP movements, can lead to permanent changes of output and real exchange rates. Differences are exacerbated when member countries have different product and labor market regulations. Less regulated economies are likely to have higher trend growth and recover faster from negative shocks. Results are consistent with higher inflation, lower employment and disappointing TFP growth rates experienced in the less reform-friendly euro area members.
This paper examines the sources of disturbances to output in the United States and a set of EU countries and analyzes labor market adjustment mechanisms in these two economic areas. Comparable datasets comprising 1-digit sectoral data for eight U.S. regions and eight European countries are constructed and used to compare the degree of industrial diversification and the relative importance of different sources of shocks to output growth. Both areas are found to be subject to similar overall disturbances although a disaggregated perspective reveals some important differences. The major difference, however, is in labor market adjustment. Interregional labor mobility appears to be a much more important adjustment mechanism in the United States, which has a more integrated labor market than the EU.
The creation of the European Central Bank and the Euro have brought new challenges to EU integration and economic policy. This book looks into issues of monetary and factor market policies. The analysis presents new theoretical and empirical research on the current decline of the Euro. Issues regarding exchange rate policies and international economic relations are also addressed.
With Economic and Monetary Union, the European Union has embarked on one of the biggest projects in its history. Previous literature has focused on how EMU came into being and on the policy issues that it raises. European States and the Euro seeks to move the discussion forwards by offering the first systematic evaluation of how it is affecting EU states, both members and non-members of the Euro-Zone. It is the first book to explicitly situate EMU in the growing literature on Europeanization. It examines the effects on public policies, political structures, discourses, and identities. The book seeks to identify the scope of EMU's effects, the direction that it imparts to political and policy changes, the mechanisms by which it produces its effects, and the role of domestic institutions, political leadership and specific forms of discourse in shaping responses. In addition, the book assesses how, and with what effects, EMU is affecting key policy sectors labour markets and wages, welfare states, and financial market governance. What conditions the degree of convergence discernible in these sectors? Finally, the book seeks to 'contextualize' EMU by assessing its effects both in comparison with other variables like globalization and in a historical perspective of the European Monetary System as a 'training ground'. The book combines sectoral and country case studies with a thematic treatment by recognized experts in their fields. It moves from globalization, through EU-level changes, to member states and finally to specific sectors. The main conclusions are that EMU is most important in affecting the timing, tempo and rhythm of domestic change that these changes are experienced pre-eminently at the level of policy; that it strengthens pressures for convergence; but that different domestic institutional arrangements and discourses lead to variations in policy processes and effects and in the way change is 'framed'. In particular, whilst EMU contains a neo-liberalizing tendency exhibited most clearly in financial market effects, it is not to be characterized as a neo-liberal project by means of which the EU is becoming an economic and social space simply converging around Anglo-American market capitalism.
Imbalances within the euro area have been a defining feature of the crisis. This paper provides a critical analysis of the ongoing rebalancing of euro area “deficit economies” (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) that accumulated large current account deficits and external liability positions in the run-up to the crisis. It shows that relative price adjustments have been proceeding gradually. Real effective exchange rates have depreciated by 10-25 percent, driven largely by reductions in unit labor costs due to labor shedding. While exports have typically rebounded, subdued demand accounts for much of the reduction in current account deficits. Hence, the current account balance of the euro area as a whole has shifted into surplus. Internal rebalancing has come with subdued activity—notably very high unemployment in the deficit economies—and made continued adjustment more difficult. To advance rebalancing further, the paper emphasizes the need for: (1) macroeconomic policies that support demand and bring inflation in line with the ECB’s medium-term price stability objective; (2) continued EMU reforms (banking union) to ensure proper financial intermediation; and (3) structural reforms in product and labor markets to improve productivity and support the reallocation of resources to tradable sectors.
Provides an analysis of the classical gold standard (1880-1914) - the nearest historical equivalent to what EC countries are attempting to do - in order to examine critically these and other issues raised in the debate. Problems are highlighted that need to be solved before EMU becomes viable.
This Revised Second Edition covers recent events in the EMS, including the collapse of the ERM; includes fully updated empirical evidence; includes discussion of new theoretical developments such as target zone models and credibility testing; and introduces the political issues surrounding the move to monetary union. This popular textbook on monetary integration has now been fully revised and updated with expanded chapters on recent important events in the EMS, new empirical evidence, and coverage of further theoretical developments. This lucid and authoritative view will remain an invaluable undergraduate textbook. Professor De Grauwe focuses on the economic theory of monetary union, presents the costs and benefits of moving to a single currency, and provides a detailed presentation of the monetary system operating in Europe. This second edition introduces the student to the political issues surrounding monetary union, and Professor De Grauwe offers a critical analysis of the possibility of eventual European transition to full monetary union.