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This paper aims to widen the prism through which Fund policy analysis is conducted for resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). While all resource-rich economies face resource revenue exhaustibility and volatility, RRDCs face additional challenges, including lack of access to international capital markets and domestic capital scarcity. Resource exhaustibility gives rise to inter-temporal decisions of how much of the resource wealth to consume and how much to save, and revenue volatility calls for appropriate fiscal rules and precautionary savings. Under certain conditions, it would be optimal for a significant share of a RRDC’s savings to be in domestic real assets (e.g., investment in domestic infrastructure), though absorptive capacity constraints need to be tackled to promote efficient spending and short-run policies are needed to preserve macroeconomic stability. The objective of this paper is to develop new macro-fiscal frameworks and policy analysis tools for RRDCs that could enhance Fund policy advice.
This supplement presents the analytical frameworks underlying the IMF’s staff’s enhanced policy analysis and advice to resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). The proposed macro-fiscal models, which are applied to selected country or regional cases, are aimed at addressing questions regarding how to deal with resource revenue uncertainty and how to scale up spending within relevant frameworks that ensure fiscal and external sustainability while addressing absorptive capacity constraints. The country applications confirm the importance attached by both IMF staff and country authorities of using the appropriate macro-fiscal frameworks to address the specific challenges faced by RRDCs.
This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Nigeria highlights the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS). NEEDS gives special support to agriculture, industry, small and medium-scale enterprises, and oil and gas. Under the plan, the government will seek long-term capital for investment. Trade policy will be modified to unburden business of the red tape and complex procedures that hinder it from flourishing. NEEDS envisages forging stronger links between educational institutions and industry to stimulate rapid industrial growth and efficient exploitation of resources.
Nigeria’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that the authorities made good progress in implementing their structural reform program. Given favorable terms of trade, gross international reserves are projected to increase substantially. The economy is expected to benefit from improved infrastructure and policy initiatives aimed at spurring non-oil GDP growth, and removal of distortions. The medium-term outlook hinges on the government’s ability to consolidate the progress it has made in macroeconomic stability, strengthen public expenditure management, and progress significantly in implementing structural reforms.
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