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This book brings together the experience of central banks and national statistical agencies in countries that focus their monetary policy on inflation targets. Inflation targeting has led to a close interface between these two sets of institutions. When the performance of a central bank is measured in terms of specified price indices, which are usually compiled and disseminated by the national statistical agency, the role of national statistical agencies becomes central to the credibility of monetary policy. Data needs and uses have also shifted, with implications for national and international statistics compilation: market data have gained in importance; less emphasis is placed on traditional monetary aggregates; and greater attention is paid to timeliness, adherence to sound economic accounting standards, and other aspects of data quality.
Edward M. Graham, Nina Oding and Paul J. J. Welfens Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have achieved sustained economic growth in first half of the new decade in the 2V^ century. EU ac cession countries which have joined the EU have benefited mainly from high capital inflows, a reduced risk premium - with shadow effects of this already occurring in the years before explicit membership - and growing trade. While system transformation has undermined trade between Eastern Europe and Russia for several years there are medium prospects for grow ing trade in the whole of Europe. Russia's case, however, is different from the EU accession countries as a major driving force of economic dynamics is the oil and gas sector which has considerable backward and forward linkages. At the same time this sector apparently is politically quite sensi tive. The Transatlantic Transformation and Economic Development Re search Group has organized several workshops within a major interna tional research project. The project is devoted to analyzing the internatio nalization of the Russian economy and the associated changes in major policy fields. This book contains the revised analytical papers from the St. Petersburg conference in 2003 when the city celebrated its 300 year anniversary. We are very grateful to the Leontief Center for excellent organization of the conference. The paper by Paul J. J.
This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing among them. The approaches to measurement considered include exclusion-based methods, imputation methods, limited influence estimators, reweighting, and economic modeling. Criteria for judging which approach to use include credibility, control, deviations from a smoothed reference series, volatility, predictive ability, causality and cointegration tests, and correlation with money supply. Country practice can differ in how the approaches are implemented and how their appropriateness is assessed. There is little consistency in the results of country studies to readily suggest guidelines on accepted methods.
Monetary policymakers in advanced transition economies such as Poland are increasingly interested in how inflation responds to changes in policy instruments and other economic forces. In this paper, measures of underlying CPI inflation based upon optimal trimming concepts are developed. The sensitivity of these CPI measures to changes in a set of 25 policy and economic variables is then studied via Granger causality tests and impulse responses and a multivariate model of CPI inflation developed. The results show that a core set of variables characterize one-period-ahead underlying inflation moderately well but that statistical linkages are not yet robust.