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This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.
Wind Forecasting in Railway Engineering presents core and leading-edge technologies in wind forecasting for railway engineering. The title brings together wind speed forecasting and railway wind engineering, offering solutions from both fields. Key technologies are presented, along with theories, modeling steps and comparative analyses of forecasting technologies. Each chapter presents case studies and applications, including typical applications and key issues, analysis of wind field characteristics, optimization methods for the placement of a wind anemometer, single-point time series along railways, deep learning algorithms on single-point wind forecasting, reinforcement learning algorithms, ensemble single-point wind forecasting methods, spatial wind, and data-driven spatial-temporal wind forecasting algorithms. This important book offers practical solutions for railway safety, by bringing together the latest technologies in wind speed forecasting and railway wind engineering into a single volume. Presents the core technologies and most advanced developments in wind forecasting for railway engineering Gives case studies and experimental designs, demonstrating real-world applications Introduces cutting-edge deep learning and reinforcement learning methods Combines the latest thinking from wind engineering and railway engineering Offers a complete solution to wind forecasting in railway engineering for the safety of running trains
In this paper, the semi-average method under neutrosophic statistics is introduced. The trend regression line for the semi-average method is given in the presence of Neutrosophy in the data. The application of the semi-average method under indeterminacy is given with the help of wind speed data. The efficiency of the semi-average method under the neutrosophic statistics is discussed over the semi-average method under classical statistics. From the analysis, it is concluded that the proposed method is effective, informative, and flexible for the forecasting of wind speed.