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Russia has long used political, military, economic, informational, and clandestine tools against countries in the Black Sea region. In this report, the authors present elements of a Western strategy to counter Russian malign influence and aggression.
This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.
In this new Brookings Marshall Paper, Michael O'Hanlon argues that now is the time for Western nations to negotiate a new security architecture for neutral countries in eastern Europe to stabilize the region and reduce the risks of war with Russia. He believes NATO expansion has gone far enough. The core concept of this new security architecture would be one of permanent neutrality. The countries in question collectively make a broken-up arc, from Europe's far north to its south: Finland and Sweden; Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus; Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan; and finally Cyprus plus Serbia, as well as possibly several other Balkan states. Discussion on the new framework should begin within NATO, followed by deliberation with the neutral countries themselves, and then formal negotiations with Russia. The new security architecture would require that Russia, like NATO, commit to help uphold the security of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other states in the region. Russia would have to withdraw its troops from those countries in a verifiable manner; after that, corresponding sanctions on Russia would be lifted. The neutral countries would retain their rights to participate in multilateral security operations on a scale comparable to what has been the case in the past, including even those operations that might be led by NATO. They could think of and describe themselves as Western states (or anything else, for that matter). If the European Union and they so wished in the future, they could join the EU. They would have complete sovereignty and self-determination in every sense of the word. But NATO would decide not to invite them into the alliance as members. Ideally, these nations would endorse and promote this concept themselves as a more practical way to ensure their security than the current situation or any other plausible alternative.
Today, we know what the Black Sea is not from a strategic perspective, but we do not know what it is. This strategic indecision is the explanation for all the conflicts, frozen or not, explicit or tacit, and all the political and geopolitical tensions that are now taking place in this space and that are becoming endemic. The story of the Black Sea continues… This text is the first encyclopaedia explicitly dedicated to the geopolitics of the Black Sea, written for Western audiences, an academic research which appeals to the wider academic community, PhD students, professors, and researchers, and to any reader interested in geopolitics, history, international relations, economy, sociology, history, and geography.
"This book offers perspective on the difficult geopolitical and geostrategic conditions and review how new type of warfare - Fourth Generation War - has drastic impact on the Alliance military and defense doctrines contributing to the understanding of the transformation of regional security environment in aegis of the Euro-Atlantic Community"--
Beyond traditional threats from states such as China and Russia and non-state actors employing violent extremism, can America’s politics and political system withstand the assaults of the Fifth Horseman and the new MAD, Massive Attacks of Disruption? The Covid-19 pandemic, the January 6 insurrection and takeover of the US Capitol, SolarWinds cyber attacks, the Texas storms that cut power, and the blocking of the Suez Canal are harbingers of the new MAD. And the nation is unaware and unprepared to deal with them. What must be done? First, we must recognize the potentially existential dangers posed by MAD. Second, we must reorganize government to meet these dangers. Third, we need new national security strategies to protect, defend, and mitigate these new threats. Fourth, we must create a private-public partnership in a national re-investment fund that can redress many of the risks of MAD. In this transformative and highly innovative and provocative book, Dr. Harlan Ullman issues a dramatic warning about so far unrecognized existential dangers to the nation and offers a plan of action America must take if the Fifth Horseman and the new MAD are to be tamed or broken.
The most comprehensive study of Romanian politics ever published abroad, this volume represents an effort to collect and analyze data on the complex problems of Romania's journey from sultanistic national communism to a yet-unreached democratic government.
Published in association with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
A head of title: Council on Foreign Relations, International Institutions and Global Governance Program.