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This pioneering book describes the applications of agent-based modeling to financial markets. It presents a new paradigm for finance, where markets are treated as complex systems whose behavior emerges as a result of interactions of market participants, market institutions, and market rules. This includes both a presentation of the conceptual model and its software implementation. It also summarises the result of the profound research on the successful practical application of this new approach to answer questions regarding the NASDAQ Stock Market's decimalization that was implemented in 2001.The book presents conceptual foundations for modeling markets as complex systems. It describes the agent-based model of the NASDAQ stock market, including strategies used by market-makers and investors, market participants interactions, and impacts of rules and regulations. It includes analyses of simulation behavior, comparison with the behaviors observed in the real-world markets (existence of fat tails, spread clustering, etc.), and predictions about possible outcomes of decimalization. A framework for calibrating the market behavior and individual market-makers strategies to historical data is also presented.
The stock market is a fascinating, exciting part of our nation's economy. Stock Market Simulations is an interactive means of piquing students' interest and involving them in concepts related to the world of business and finance.
The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.
The current financial crisis has revealed serious flaws in models, measures and, potentially, theories, that failed to provide forward-looking expectations for upcoming losses originated from market risks. The Proceedings of the Perm Winter School 2011 propose insights on many key issues and advances in financial markets modeling and risk measurement aiming to bridge the gap. The key addressed topics include: hierarchical and ultrametric models of financial crashes, dynamic hedging, arbitrage free modeling the term structure of interest rates, agent based modeling of order flow, asset pricing in a fractional market, hedge funds performance and many more.
Multi-Agent System (MAS) is an exciting, emerging paradigm expected to play a key role in many society-changing practices. The International Conference on Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems (PRIMA) is a leading scientific conference for research on intelligent agent systems and multi-agent systems, attracting high quality, state-of-the-art research from all over the world. PRIMA’09 was the 12th in the series of PRIMA conferences and was held in Nagoya, Japan. Beside a single-track main conference, PRIMA’09 also included a number of workshops which were designed to provide a forum for researchers and practitioners to present and exchange the latest developments at the MAS frontier. This book constitutes the post-proceedings of workshops under PRIMA’09. Readers will be able to explore a diverse range of topics and detailed discussions related to a number of important themes in our ever changing world. This collection plays an important role in bridging the gap between MAS theory and practice. It emphasizes the importance of MAS in the research and development of smart power grid systems, decision support systems, optimization and analysis systems for road traffic and markets, environmental monitoring and simulation, and in many other real-world applications and publicizes and extends MAS technology to many domains in this fast moving information age.
This book presents a range of recent advances concerning industrial restructuring strategies, industrial organization, industrial policy, departmental economic research, industrial competitiveness, regional industrial structure, national industrial economic security theory and empirical research. Successfully combining theory and practice, the book gathers the outcomes of the “6th International Conference on Industrial Economics System and Industrial Security Engineering”, which was held at the University of Maryland, USA.
The stock market is in the news every day, and even people who do not personally trade securities or intend to make a fortune by trading stocks have an interest in knowing something about the stock market. By giving students an understanding of the stock market, we are preparing them to deal knowledgeably with an area of our society that has a vast effect on their lives. Whether or not they choose later in life to trade stocks on an individual basis, they will have the knowledge that will enable them to understand this aspect of the economy and how their personal economic pictures are affected by the larger economic landscape. The Stock Market Game is a fun, informative simulation game that provides the information and framework for students to learn about the economics and psychology of the stock market. This easy-to-use guide includes: information about all aspects of company ownership; information on stocks, stock prices, the stock market, buying and selling stocks, and forces that affect stock prices; a minisimulation that can be completed in 1 week; and a longer simulation that follows the real stock market for several months. All information is presented on reproducible pages, illustrated with examples, and followed by exercises that let students apply their knowledge. This motivating unit will give students insights they will carry with them into their adult lives. This combination curriculum guide/simulation has it all. All you have to do is add current stock prices from your newspaper or the Internet. For more information on business ownership, use the simulation Open for Business. Grades 5-8
There are only two types of stocks: those safe from bubbles and those that are not. This is a fact of investing many discovered as they saw their fabulous gains whittled away by the extreme calamity of the Internet sector. But what about the future? Is there a way for investors to capture the enormous potential for profit that exists at the frontier of the economy, the place where innovation and genius operate, without placing their fortunes in jeopardy? Is there a way to evaluate price increases—and declines—and identify whether they are happening for good or bad reasons? Bubbleology makes it possible to separate the winners from the losers. It is a brilliant, practical, and original analysis of the stock market that bashes the conventional wisdom about bubbles, showing that such famous examples as Tulipomania were not, in fact, bubbles at all. Bubbleology shows that the traditional way of evaluating risk—equating it with volatility—is inherently flawed and incomplete. If a stock fluctuates a lot in price it is regarded as risky. If the price is stable, then it is not. What this simplistic way of thinking leaves out is the simple fact that companies trying something completely new that may fundamentally alter the economic landscape are operating at the frontier. The stock of such a company swims in a sea of ambiguity, its circumstances uncertain, since there is little to provide guidance about the future. But when nobody knows for sure what will happen, pundits tell us again about Tulipomania, the South Seas Bubble, and now the debacle of the Internet to scare investors away from potentially enormous profits. To realize those profits, however, investors have to understand the role that uncertainty and ambiguity—the absence of reliable information about future events—play in the modern stock market. Those who equate ambiguity with bubbles will miss the great opportunities of the future. Bubbleology provides a new way to observe what is really going on in the market, enabling you to understand whether a stock or a sector is suspicious—whether it is in a bubble and therefore something to be avoided. Finding bubbles requires knowing where to look and what to look for. Bubbleology will help you avoid both streaming into speculative manias and shying away from perfectly good business opportunities. It tells you why you need to avoid both pontificating pundits and overconfident stock analysts. With this unique and forward-thinking book, you can inspect suspicious stocks, accurately discern risk, and diagnose a blossoming bubble before it vanishes along with your money.
Operational Research (OR) deals with the use of advanced analytical methods to support better decision-making. It is multidisciplinary with strong links to management science, decision science, computer science and many application areas such as engineering, manufacturing, commerce and healthcare. In the study of emergent behaviour in complex adaptive systems, Agent-based Modelling & Simulation (ABMS) is being used in many different domains such as healthcare, energy, evacuation, commerce, manufacturing and defense. This collection of articles presents a convenient introduction to ABMS with papers ranging from contemporary views to representative case studies. The OR Essentials series presents a unique cross-section of high quality research work fundamental to understanding contemporary issues and research across a range of Operational Research (OR) topics. It brings together some of the best research papers from the esteemed Operational Research Society and its associated journals, also published by Palgrave Macmillan.
It is widely recognised that the foreign aid system - which today involves every country in the world - is in need of drastic change. But there are conflicting opinions as to what is needed. Some call for dramatic increases in resources, to meet long-overdue commitments, and to scale up what is already being done around the world. Others point to the flaws in aid, and bang the drum for cutting it altogether - and argue that the fate of poor and vulnerable people be best placed in the hands of markets and the private sector. Meanwhile, growing numbers are suggesting that what is most needed is the creative, innovative transformation of how aid works. Aid on the Edge of Chaos is firmly in the third of these camps. In this ground-breaking book, Ben Ramalingam shows that the linear, mechanistic models and assumptions on which foreign aid is built would be more at home in early twentieth century factory floors than in the dynamic, complex world we face today. All around us, we can see the costs and limitations of dealing economies and societies as if they are analogous to machines. The reality is that such social systems have far more in common with ecosystems: they are complex, dynamic, diverse and unpredictable. Many thinkers and practitioners in science, economics, business, and public policy have started to embrace more 'ecologically literate' approaches to guide both thinking and action, informed by ideas from the 'new science' of complex adaptive systems. Inspired by these efforts, there is an emerging network of aid practitioners, researchers, and policy makers who are experimenting with complexity-informed responses to development and humanitarian challenges. This book showcases the insights, experiences, and often remarkable results from these efforts. From transforming approaches to child malnutrition, to rethinking processes of economic growth, from building peace to combating desertification, from rural Vietnam to urban Kenya, Aid on the Edge of Chaos shows how embracing the ideas of complex systems thinking can help make foreign aid more relevant, more appropriate, more innovative, and more catalytic. Ramalingam argues that taking on these ideas will be a vital part of the transformation of aid, from a post-WW2 mechanism of resource transfer, to a truly innovative and dynamic form of global cooperation fit for the twenty-first century.