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To address the uncertainties of river flood forecasting and to contribute a new visualization for flood mapping, this study outlines a methodology for creating dynamic probabilistic flood inundation maps for a floodplain which currently lacks dynamic flood maps of any kind. To create these maps, a hydrologic model is specially constructed using HEC-RAS for a segment of the Tonawanda Creek in western New York. The model is constructed using pre-existing, publically available data, including a LiDAR digital elevation model, real-time discharge observations from a USGS-maintained gauge on the creek, and other characteristics of the creek's bathymetry derived from previous flood insurance studies. The model is then used to create inundation rasters based on selected initial discharges. To determine probabilities, predicted peak discharges for the Tonawanda Creek are first collected from the Meteorological Model-based Ensemble Forecast System (MMEFS), which generates predictions of various hydrometeorological parameters in real-time, and are used to create a suite of inundation rasters, one for each individual peak discharge prediction. These inundation rasters are then overlaid and the probabilities are calculated by grid cell based on how many inundations overlap. The resulting map depicts the range of flooding extent probabilities based on the real-time forecast. An alternative probabilistic map is also devised to depict the depth of flooding given a flood event's probability. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles are calculated for the forecast ensemble's peak discharge predictions. These percentiles correspond to benchmarks of flooding likelihood, such that the 10th percentile indicates a 90% likely flood event, 50th percentile a 50% event, and 90th percentile a 10% event. Once completed, the maps are qualitatively evaluated for potential applications in predicting flood events and mitigating flood-induced damages.
Computers are increasingly used in the simulation of natural phenomena such as floods. However, these simulations are based on numerical approximations of equations formalizing our conceptual understanding of flood flows. Thus, model results are intrinsically subject to uncertainty and the use of probabilistic approaches seems more appropriate. Uncertain, probabilistic floodplain maps are widely used in the scientific domain, but still not sufficiently exploited to support the development of flood mitigation strategies. In this thesis the major sources of uncertainty in flood inundation models are analyzed, resulting in the generation of probabilistic floodplain maps. The utility of probabilistic model output is assessed using value of information and the prospect theory. The use of these maps to support decision making in terms of floodplain development under flood hazard threat is demonstrated.
Flooding is the most common and single largest source of disaster-caused property damage in the United States. The past year, 2017, was the costliest for weather and climate disasters in US history. To mitigate these losses, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and National Flood Insurance Program produce Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) that often provide the most comprehensive and authoritative flood hazard information for a community. Despite reform efforts for greater map accuracy, spatial politics may render the computationally efficient 100- year floodplain delineation of questionable effectiveness, equity, and legitimacy for long-term land use planning. Given changing coastal flooding and sea level rise, how can risk mapping inform and improve future urban development? The dissertation: (1) positions flood mapping in the larger context of urban risk computation; (2) chronicles and statistically analyzes the nationwide map adoption process; (3) uses spatial analysis, document review, semi-structured interviews, and grounded theory to identify how these updates are proxies for nonstationary flood risk in Plymouth County, MA and New York City, NY; (4) compiles a novel survey of recent large-scale development decisionmaking in Boston, and (5) pilots a probabilistic indicator that models project-level flood risk information. I observe that the differences in location, wealth, and race between counties are associated with varying FIRM adoption process durations as well as whether a county may appeal and receive revised maps. I argue that coastal communities with sociopolitical clout can bend the process of computational risk assessment, through either contestation or collaboration over risk classification. I find the planning information shock of updated maps, however, is a largely insufficient signal to change developer behavior. Therefore, I pioneer the Future Flood Resilience Indicator (FFRI) as a decision support tool for developers to understand the long-term flood risk of their proposed development projects and planners to ascertain the impact of their policies. In conclusion, the dissertation provides policy makers with: (1) new data on how map adoption is not a purely scientific and technical process, (2) further evidence that the current 100- year flood standard is inadequate, and (3) resilience-building tools for land use planning.
Estimating flood hazard in areas subject to flooding from rivers is the basis of many hydrological studies. An estimate of the spatial dimension of the flood event is implicitly deduced from these stages. This study focused on the determination of producing flood plain map from different Annual Rainfall Intensity (ARI) and hydraulic. A numbers of flood plain map were designed using ArcView GIS 3.3 with extension of HECGeoRAS and by using HEC-RAS as hydraulic model. While CCHE2D model visualise the flood extend in 2D and as a comparison with HEC-RAS. Results show that different storm events produced different flood plain extent. As the increase of storm events from 2 years of storm event in 1 hour to 100 years of storm events in 1 hour, the flood plain maps extent were increased both for predevelopment and post development. Therefore, there is the limit in producing a flood plain map. In view of this, research into flooding represents a pressing concern and should be seen as one of the most important applied roles of the hydrological sciences and as a tools towards sustainability development of the ecosystem.
Flood zones with 1% and 0.02% of annual flooding chance are projected in the ‎Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) digital flood insurance rate maps ‎‎(DFIRMs) and are suited for identifying flood risk at the largest impacts. However, less ‎severe floods, which are not mapped in DFIRMs, still cause significant damage and ‎occur on a more frequent basis. This article employs an easy-to-setup GIS-based ‎solution for rapid inundation mapping of small flood events. The linear interpolation ‎technique (LITE Flood) is developed to rescale the hydraulic behavior inherent with a ‎larger flood event without performing additional hydraulic simulations. The approach is ‎evaluated by comparing the results to the corresponding storm scenarios simulated in ‎the HEC-RAS, a standard river hydraulics simulator. The case study is a portion of the ‎Wolf River and its two main tributaries in Shelby County that is located in the southwest ‎corner of Tennessee, USA, where stream channelization mitigated large flood events but ‎has caused frequent flooding from less severe storms. Results indicate that LITE Flood ‎can be used to delineate more frequent storm events, thereby aiding local community ‎emergency response agencies who often do not have the expertise to perform more ‎sophisticated hydraulic modeling but do have a GIS capacity.‎.
The purpose of this manual is to present basic principles used in the design and construction of earth levees. The term levee as used herein is defined as an embankment whose primary purpose is to furnish flood protection from seasonal high water and which is therefore subject to water loading for periods of only a few days or weeks a year. Embankments that are subject to water loading for prolonged periods (longer than normal flood protection requirements) or permanently should be designed in accordance with earth dam criteria rather than the levee criteria given herein. Even though levees are similar to small earth dams they differ from earth dams in the following important respects: (a) a levee embankment may become saturated for only a short period of time beyond the limit of capillary saturation, (b) levee alignment is dictated primarily by flood protection requirements, which often results in construction on poor foundations, and (c) borrow is generally obtained from shallow pits or from channels excavated adjacent to the levee, which produce fill material that is often heterogeneous and far from ideal. Selection of the levee section is often based on the properties of the poorest material that must be used.
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