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Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.
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Along several dimensions, a measure of the financial integration of equity markets yields results consistent with prior assumptions about the relationship between effective integration, explicit capital controls, capital market development, and economic growth.If equity markets are financially integrated, the price of risk should be the same across markets. If the markets are not financially integrated - possibly because of barriers to capital flows across markets - the price of risk may differ across markets.Korajczyk investigates one measure of financial integration between equity markets. He uses a multifactor equilibrium Arbitrage Pricing Theory to define risk and to measure deviations from the law of one price. He applies the integration measure to equities traded in 24 countries (four developed, and 20 emerging).The measure of market segmentation tends to be much larger for emerging markets than for developed markets, which is consistent with larger barriers to capital flows into or out of the emerging markets. The measure tends to decrease over time, which is consistent with growing levels of integration.Large values of adjusted mispricing occur around periods of economic turbulence and periods in which capital controls change significantly. So, the adjusted mispricing estimates measure not only the level of deviation from the law of one price, but also the revaluations inherent in moving from one regime to another.This paper - a product of the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to study stock market development. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediary Growth (RPO 678-37).
June 1995 Along several dimensions, a measure of the financial integration of equity markets yields results consistent with prior assumptions about the relationship between effective integration, explicit capital controls, capital market development, and economic growth. If equity markets are financially integrated, the price of risk should be the same across markets. If the markets are not financially integrated--possibly because of barriers to capital flows across markets--the price of risk may differ across markets. Korajczyk investigates one measure of financial integration between equity markets. He uses a multifactor equilibrium Arbitrage Pricing Theory to define risk and to measure deviations from the law of one price. He applies the integration measure to equities traded in 24 countries (four developed, and 20 emerging). The measure of market segmentation tends to be much larger for emerging markets than for developed markets, which is consistent with larger barriers to capital flows into or out of the emerging markets. The measure tends to decrease over time, which is consistent with growing levels of integration. Large values of adjusted mispricing occur around periods of economic turbulence and periods in which capital controls change significantly. So, the adjusted mispricing estimates measure not only the level of deviation from the law of one price, but also the revaluations inherent in moving from one regime to another. This paper--a product of the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department--is part of a larger effort in the department to study stock market development. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediary Growth (RPO 678-37).
A comprehensive reference work presenting an original framework for evaluating observed differences in returns across assets.
This paper discusses the extent to which national capital markets have become linked, and identifies several of the more important consequences of that increased degree of integration. Alternative approaches to the measurement of capital market integration are reviewed, including deviations from the law of one price, differences between actual and optimally diversified portfolios, correlations between domestic investment and domestic saving, and cross-country links in consumption behavior. Two recent episodes of large-scale international capital flows—namely, the turmoil in the European Monetary System in the fall of 1992, and the surge of capital inflows into Latin America during the last three years—are examined for insights into the workings of today’s global capital market. Finally, the paper offers some concluding remarks on the future development of international capital markets, on exchange rate management, on alternative approaches to living with larger and more influential financial markets, and on the financing of investment in the formerly centrally planned economies.
This edited collection assesses the level of financial integration in the European Union (EU) and the differences across the countries and segments of the EU financial system. Progress in financial integration is key to the EU’s economic growth and competitiveness and although it has advanced substantially, the process is still far from completion. This book focuses on the pace of financial integration in the EU with special emphasis on the new EU Member States and investigates their progress in comparison with ‘old’ EU countries. The book is the first of its kind to include and evaluate the effects of the global financial crisis on the process of EU financial integration. In particular, the book’s contributors address the issue of whether a high degree of financial integration contributed to the intensification of the financial crisis, or whether a low level of integration prevented countries and financial industries from some of the negative effects of the crisis. Although most of the chapters apply contemporary econometric tools, the technical part is always reduced to indispensable minimum and the emphasis is given to economic interpretation of the results. The book aims to offer an up to date and insightful examination of the process of financial integration in the EU today.
Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.
This timely volume addresses three important recent trends in the internationalization of United States equity markets: extensive market integration through foreign investment and links among stock prices around the world; increasing securitization as countries such as Japan come to rely more than ever before on markets in equities and bonds at the expense of banks; and the opening of national financial systems of newly industrializing countries to international financial flows and institutions, as governments remove capital controls and other barriers. Eight essays examine such issues as the current extent of international market integration, gains to U.S. investors through international diversification, home-country bias in investing, the role of time and location around the world in stock trading, and the behavior of country funds. Other, long-standing questions about equity markets are also addressed, including market efficiency and the accuracy of models of expected returns, with a particular focus on variances, covariances, and the price of risk according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.