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This paper presents and utilizes a new general equilibrium simulation model of capital income taxation. Its chief advantage over existing models of the effects of taxation is that it recognizes that agents may adjust their financial behavior in response to changes in the way that capital income is taxed. By integrating a structural treatment of portfolio choice and financial markets into a standard multi-sector model of taxation, the model can trace the general equilibrium impact of these financial adjustments and calculate the tax-induced changes in the allocation of factors and output as well as the distributional effects of any tax change. The model is used to simulate the impact of completely indexing the tax system for inflation. The results indicate there would be significant financial adjustment in response to indexing. A large shift in the distribution of private risk bearing accompanies a slight reallocation of the capital stock away from owner-occupied housing toward its other uses and a substantial change in the ownership of the housing stock by income class. All in all, indexing the tax system of an economy like the U.S. in 1977 seems to lead to an efficiency gain, slightly hurts the lowest income classes, and substantially improves the welfare of the highest income groups. The simulation results should, however, be considered tentative due to uncertainty about the values of several parameters and the relatively simple formulations of the determinants of portfolio choice and the U.S. financial structure.
This paper presents and utilizes a new general equilibrium simulation model of capital income taxation. Its chief advantage over existing models of the effects of taxation is that it recognizes that agents may adjust their financial behavior in response to changes in the way that capital income is taxed. By integrating a structural treatment of portfolio choice and financial markets into a standard multi-sector model of taxation, the model can trace the general equilibrium impact of these financial adjustments and calculate the tax-induced changes in the allocation of factors and output as well as the distributional effects of any tax change. The model is used to simulate the impact of completely indexing the tax system for inflation. The results indicate there would be significant financial adjustment in response to indexing. A large shift in the distribution of private risk bearing accompanies a slight reallocation of the capital stock away from owner-occupied housing toward its other uses and a substantial change in the ownership of the housing stock by income class. All in all, indexing the tax system of an economy like the U.S. in 1977 seems to lead to an efficiency gain, slightly hurts the lowest income classes, and substantially improves the welfare of the highest income groups. The simulation results should, however, be considered tentative due to uncertainty about the values of several parameters and the relatively simple formulations of the determinants of portfolio choice and the U.S. financial structure.
This paper develops a methodology in integrating the information from a micro-unit data file of tax returns into the framework of a general equilibrium model of taxation with endogenous financial behavior. It discusses how the available information on capital income flows can be used to impute portfolios to households, and how these portfolios and the other observed characteristics of the households can be made consistent with expected utility maximization. In order to illustrate the value of this methodology, it is applied to a study of the general equilibrium impact of instituting a flat-rate income tax system. The analysis reveals that there would be substantial changes in the pattern of rates of return and the distribution of asset ownership.The sectoral allocation of capital does not, though, change substantially. The micro-unit data base shows that, in general, lower-income households are worse off and the higher-income households are better off, although there is substantial dispersion of welfare change within income groups. Because these results rest on a very simple model of the economy and a particular data imputation procedure and parameterization, they should not be taken literally as a guide to policy decisions. Nevertheless, they do indicate that substantial insight can be provided by integrating micro-unit data with general equilibrium tax modeling
Computational general equilibrium models have proven useful in the area of long run analysis of alternative tax policies. A sizable number of studies have been completed which examine policies such as a value-added tax, corporate and personal income tax integration, a consumption or expenditure tax, housing subsidies, and inflation indexation. This paper reviews the methodologies used in these models. We focus on eight specific models and review in turn: levels of disaggregation, specification of the foreign sector, financial modeling, the measurement of effective tax rates, heterogeneity and imperfect mobility, factor supply, treatment of the government budget, and technical issues associated with implementation. The paper includes some new experiments in connection with simulations of integration of the personal and corporate income tax systems in the United States. We compare the resulting welfare gains in models with different levels of disaggregation, and we discuss alternative justifications for specific disaggregations. We also examine the sensitivity of results to alternative specifications of households' endowments of labor and leisure. Our survey underscores the importance of the assumed elasticities of labor supply with respect to the net of tax wage, and of saving with respect to the net of tax rate of return. Unfortunately, these are also parameters for which there is not a consensus in the economics profession. The survey finds that there are several aspects of modeling that are especially ripe for further progress: the roles of government and business financial decisions, the dynamics of a life-cycle approach, and the measurement of incentive tax and transfer rates.
This book reports the authors' research on one of the most sophisticated general equilibrium models designed for tax policy analysis. Significantly disaggregated and incorporating the complete array of federal, state, and local taxes, the model represents the U.S. economy and tax system in a large computer package. The authors consider modifications of the tax system, including those being raised in current policy debates, such as consumption-based taxes and integration of the corporate and personal income tax systems. A counterfactual economy associated with each of these alternatives is generated, and the possible outcomes are compared.
This title was first published in 2003. India's tax revenues depend on manufacturing while agriculture and services generate employment. WTO's Uruguay and Doha rounds imply large tariff cuts. This affects the competitiveness of the Indian manufacturing sector and has implications for government deficits. Excessive dependence on indirect taxes and subsidies to regulate markets introduces distortions and is incompatible with free market principles. The book analyses welfare implications of fiscal and trade policies for India. To put the results in perspective, developments in trade theory, public finance and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling are covered. Theoretical results are juxtaposed with empirical findings from these models. Methodology to construct CGE models is also covered. The trade model covers tariff cuts under various assumptions besides incorporating "new trade theory". As tax reforms and tariff cuts are independent, past tax reforms like MODVAT (MODified VAT) and proposed reforms like VAT, elimination/reduction of subsidies are covered using a separate tax model.
These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the highest tax rates; a study of alternative tax treatments of the family; and studies of such specific aspects of household behavior as tax treatment of home ownership, charitable contributions, and individual saving behavior. Microsimulation techniques are also used to estimate the effects of alternative policies on the long-run financial status of the social security program and to examine the effects of alternative tax rules on corporate investment and of foreign-source income on overseas investment. The papers devoted to the development of general equilibrium simulation models to include an examination of the implications of international trade and capital flows, a study of the effects of capital taxation that uses a closed economy equilibrium model, and an examination of the effect of switching to an inflation-indexed tax system. In the volume's final paper, a life-cycle model in which individuals maximize lifetime utility subject to a lifetime budget constraint is used to simulate the effects of tax rules on personal savings.