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We construct a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Greece as a surveillance tool to quantify the degree of the stress in the financial sector. We use principal component analysis to capture the information content of several financial indicators through a single index. We also construct an alternative FCI by purging the business cycle and monetary policy effects on the input variables, and argue that this alternative index is a better indicator of exogenous financial shocks, and thus could be interpreted as a measure of the efficacy of transmission mechanism. We replicate the index for the euro area (EA) as a whole and show that although the developments in the EA were qualitatively in line with those in Greece, they were quantitatively much milder. Our results confirm that monetary transmission was less effective in Greece compared to the EA as a whole. Finally, we argue that our index can be a potentially useful forecasting tool for credit growth.
Seventeen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2020 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity.
We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.
This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Mauritius—an instrument to gauge the operational state of the financial sector and predict real economy activity. The evolution of Mauritius’ financial services sector has been supported by a vibrant offshore corporate sector. Given the strong macro-financial linkages, it is imperative to closely monitor domestic financial developments. Financial developments are broader than monetary developments depicting money supply and interest rates. The FCI is a robust predictor of real GDP growth in Mauritius. The FCI can also help inform macroprudential policy decisions. Decisions on setting the countercyclical capital buffer of Basel III could be informed by analyzing developments in the FCI. As historically Mauritius has not experienced drastic swings in financial credit, testing the constructed FCIs for predicting boom-bust episodes is difficult. Nevertheless, the FCI signaled lax financial conditions in 2009 and again in 2012 that likely contributed to accelerated credit growth in 2012–2013 and a subsequent acceleration in nonperforming loans during 2014–2016.
Analyze key indicators more accurately to make smarter market moves The Economic Indicator Handbook helps investors more easily evaluate economic trends, to better inform investment decision making and other key strategic financial planning. Written by a Bloomberg Senior Economist, this book presents a visual distillation of the indicators every investor should follow, with clear explanation of how they're measured, what they mean, and how that should inform investment thinking. The focus on graphics, professional application, Bloomberg terminal functionality, and practicality makes this guide a quick, actionable read that could immediately start improving investment outcomes. Coverage includes gross domestic product, employment data, industrial production, new residential construction, consumer confidence, retail and food service sales, and commodities, plus guidance on the secret indicators few economists know or care about. Past performance can predict future results – if you know how to read the indicators. Modern investing requires a careful understanding of the macroeconomic forces that lift and topple markets on a regular basis, and how they shift to move entire economies. This book is a visual guide to recognizing these forces and tracking their behavior, helping investors identify entry and exit points that maximize profit and minimize loss. Quickly evaluate economic trends Make more informed investment decisions Understand the most essential indicators Translate predictions into profitable actions Savvy market participants know how critical certain indicators are to the formulation of a profitable, effective market strategy. A daily indicator check can inform day-to-day investing, and long-term tracking can result in a stronger, more robust portfolio. For the investor who knows that better information leads to better outcomes, The Economic Indicator Handbook is an exceptionally useful resource.
The Greek economy is teetering owing to heavy public debt and loss of market access. Greece is adopting an ambitious comprehensive multiyear adjustment program to lower the fiscal deficit and the debt ratio, reduce domestic demand in line with capacity, and increase supply and competitiveness so that the economy can step onto a higher growth path led by investments and exports. Greece needs a strong and sustained adjustment program to lower the fiscal deficit substantially and create the basis for a declining debt ratio.

Greece

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Published: 2019-11-15

Total Pages: 60


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This Selected Issues paper explores the links between wage policies, non-wage cost developments, and competitiveness. A series of program-era policies helped to partially reverse this trend, including labor market policies that cushioned the effect of the crisis on employment and brought unit labor costs broadly in line with trading partners. However, the resulting more competitive wage structure only partly translated into price adjustments due to product market rigidities (with firms retaining some profit margin) and rising non-wage cost factors (e.g., taxes and financing costs). This incomplete internal devaluation and subsequent low productivity gains reinforce the view that Greece has further to go to address its external imbalances. However, labor policy reversals following program exit in August 2018 threaten this objective. The paper shows that Greece must preserve its labor cost competitiveness while increasing efforts to facilitate price adjustment in product markets and reduce non-wage costs.
How does one distinguish between European Union investments that improve welfare and those that create economic malaise? Funding the Greek Crisis: The European Union, Cohesion Policies, and the Great Recession explores the sources of the Greek Crisis that lie primarily in EU policies that appeared to have worked better for other countries but not for Greece. Without overly simplifying the Greek condition, it provides insights into policies the countries of the euro area may need to implement in order to ensure collective cohesion and individual success. Arguing that EU preferences for autonomous investments discouraged organic development with lasting implications, Funding the Greek Crisis sheds new light on the nature of regional competitiveness and public economics. - Encompasses public economics, macroeconomics, international trade, competitiveness, microeconomics and regional development studies - Sheds light on key policies that affect millions of EU citizens - Examines Solow's growth model - Provides a different way of explaining growth from real business cycle theory
Economic shocks pose a threat to health and health system performance by increasing people's need for health care and making access to care more difficult - a situation compounded by cuts in public spending on health and other social services. But these negative effects can be avoided by timely public policy action. While important public policy levers lie outside the health sector, in the hands of those responsible for fiscal policy and social protection, the health system response is critical. This book looks at how health systems in Europe reacted to pressure created by the financial and economic crisis that began in 2008. Drawing on the experience of over 45 countries, the authors:' analyse health system responses to the crisis in three policy areas: public funding for the health system; health coverage; and health service planning, purchasing and delivery 'assess the impact of these responses on health systems and population health' identify policies most likely to sustain the performance of health systems facing financial pressure' explore the political economy of implementing reforms in a crisisThe book is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the choices available to policy-makers - and the implications of failing to protect health and health-system performance - in the face of economic and other forms of shock.--
In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.