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Abstract: Indoor event locations are particularly affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. At large venues, only incomplete risk assessments exist, whereby no suitable measures can be derived. In this study, a physical and data-driven statistical model for a comprehensive infection risk assessment has been developed. At venues displacement ventilation concepts are often implemented. Here simplified theoretical assumptions fail for the prediction of relevant airflows for airborne transmission processes. Thus, with locally resolving trace gas measurements infection risks are computed more detailed. Coupled with epidemiological data such as incidences, vaccination rates, test sensitivities, and audience characteristics such as masks and age distribution, predictions of new infections (mean), situational R-values (mean), and individual risks on- and off-seat can be achieved for the first time. Using the Stuttgart State Opera as an example, the functioning of the model and its plausibility are tested and a sensitivity analysis is performed with regard to masks and tests. Besides a reference scenario on 2022-11-29, a maximum safety scenario with an obligation of FFP2 masks and rapid antigen tests as well as a minimum safety scenario without masks and tests are investigated. For these scenarios the new infections (mean) are 10.6, 0.25 and 13.0, respectively. The situational R-values (mean) - number of new infections caused by a single infectious person in a certain situation - are 2.75, 0.32 and 3.39, respectively. Besides these results a clustered consideration divided by age, masks and whether infections occur on-seat or off-seat are presented. In conclusion this provides an instrument that can enable policymakers and operators to take appropriate measures to control pandemics despite ongoing mass gathering events
Provides the latest QMRA methodologies to determine infection risk cause by either accidental microbial infections or deliberate infections caused by terrorism • Reviews the latest methodologies to quantify at every step of the microbial exposure pathways, from the first release of a pathogen to the actual human infection • Provides techniques on how to gather information, on how each microorganism moves through the environment, how to determine their survival rates on various media, and how people are exposed to the microorganism • Explains how QMRA can be used as a tool to measure the impact of interventions and identify the best policies and practices to protect public health and safety • Includes new information on genetic methods • Techniques use to develop risk models for drinking water, groundwater, recreational water, food and pathogens in the indoor environment
Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.
Infectious diseases are the leading cause of death globally, particularly among children and young adults. The spread of new pathogens and the threat of antimicrobial resistance pose particular challenges in combating these diseases. Major Infectious Diseases identifies feasible, cost-effective packages of interventions and strategies across delivery platforms to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS, other sexually transmitted infections, tuberculosis, malaria, adult febrile illness, viral hepatitis, and neglected tropical diseases. The volume emphasizes the need to effectively address emerging antimicrobial resistance, strengthen health systems, and increase access to care. The attainable goals are to reduce incidence, develop innovative approaches, and optimize existing tools in resource-constrained settings.
This guideline defines ventilation and then natural ventilation. It explores the design requirements for natural ventilation in the context of infection control, describing the basic principles of design, construction, operation and maintenance for an effective natural ventilation system to control infection in health-care settings.
The application of causal inference methods is growing exponentially in fields that deal with observational data. Written by pioneers in the field, this practical book presents an authoritative yet accessible overview of the methods and applications of causal inference. With a wide range of detailed, worked examples using real epidemiologic data as well as software for replicating the analyses, the text provides a thorough introduction to the basics of the theory for non-time-varying treatments and the generalization to complex longitudinal data.
This illustrated guide to 100 of the world's most important concert halls and opera houses examines their architecture and engineering and discusses their acoustical quality as judged by conductors and music critics. The descriptions and photographs will serve as a valuable guide for today's peripatetic performers and music lovers. With technical discussions relegated to appendices, the book can be read with pleasure by anyone interested in musical performance. The photographs (specially commissioned for this book) and architectural drawings (all to the same scale) together with modern acoustical data on each of the halls provide a rich and unmatched resource on the design of halls for presenting musical performances. Together with the technical appendices, the data and drawings will serve as an invaluable reference for architects and engineers involved in the design of spaces for the performance of music.
High-Risk Pollutants in Wastewater presents the basic knowledge regarding the diversity, concentrations, and health and environmental impacts of HRPs in municipal wastewater. The book summarizes information on the types (e.g. heavy metals, toxic organics and pathogens) and toxicities of HRPs in wastewater. In addition, it describes ecological and health hazards arising from the living things' direct/indirect contacts with the HRPs during their full lifecycles (generation, disposal, discharge and reuse) in wastewater or water environments. Sections cover the concepts of appropriate technology for HRP hazard/risk assessment and wastewater treatment/reuse and the issues of strategy and policy for increasing risk control coverage. Finally, the book focuses on the resolution of water quality monitoring, wastewater treatment and disposal problems in both developed and developing countries. - Presents information on HRPs and their risk assessment and control technologies - Provides basic knowledge regarding the diversity, concentrations, and health and environmental impacts of HRPs in municipal wastewater - Summarizes information on the types (e.g. heavy metals, toxic organics and pathogens) and toxicities of HRPs in wastewater
These guidelines provide recommendations that outline the critical aspects of infection prevention and control. The recommendations were developed using the best available evidence and consensus methods by the Infection Control Steering Committee. They have been prioritised as key areas to prevent and control infection in a healthcare facility. It is recognised that the level of risk may differ according to the different types of facility and therefore some recommendations should be justified by risk assessment. When implementing these recommendations all healthcare facilities need to consider the risk of transmission of infection and implement according to their specific setting and circumstances.