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The report presents a simulation model for the evaluation of national economic efficiency benefits of various levels of flood protection and alternative land use plans. The model has three major components: (1) Calculation of flood damages and economic rent components. (2) Allocation of land use requirements. (3) Benefit calculation based on locational advantage and damage reduction. The report also presents the results of a test case in Connecticut River Basin. (Author).
The publication presents analytical progress in the development of a computer simulation model for flood plain development. A conceptual model was developed for five major parts: forecasting population and economic activities; allocating activities to available land; integrating public policies restricting land use; measuring and projecting flood damages; and evaluating benefits based on appropriate formulas involving flood damages, land rents, and locational advantages. Several concepts are introduced to solve problems associated with development of the simulation model.
Corps of Engineers flood control studies have normally included an upward adjustment in flood damages to reflect the impact of increasing real income. Thus it is alleged that the increases in real income tend to result in increasing real value of property and contents in the flood plain. Current regulations restrict the application of an affluence factor to contents of residential property and provide limits to its use. This investigation explores two sources of data which potentially could be used to construct indicators of long-run changes in damageable value of commercial and industrial property and contents. This report finds that aggregate national data sources do not permit a consistent indicator of shifts in the real value of commercial and industrial property and contents. Further investigation of two areas for which the Corps had conducted several flood damage studies reached inconclusive results for two important reasons. First, the composition of commercial and industrial occupancy of flood plains rapidly shifted and second, repetitive flood damage surveys rarely resurveyed property previously surveyed, preferring to concentrate on development originating since the last survey. Thus the time series data was faulty for use in constructing indices. (Author).