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This book introduces a new approach in the field of macroeconomic inventory studies: the use of multivariate statistics to evaluate long-term characteristics of inventory investments in developed countries. By analyzing a 44-year period series of annual inventory change in percentage of GDP in a set of OECD countries, disclosing their relationship to growth, industry structure and alternative uses of GDP (fixed capital investments, foreign trade and consumption), it fills a gap in the economic literature. It is generally accepted that inventories play an important role in all levels of the economy. However, while there is extensive literature on micro- (and even item-) level inventory problems, macroeconomic inventory studies are scarce. Both the long-term processes of inventory formation and their correlation with other macroeconomic factors provide interesting conclusions about economic changes and policies in our immediate past, and present important insights for the future.
In this book on disequilibrium, growth and labor market dynamics we take predominantly a macroeconomic perspective. We present a working model that can easily be varied in different directions in order to subsume innovations in the literature on macroeconomics, old and new, and to contribute to important currently discussed macroeconomic issues. Our working model is set up in a way that there is a close relationship between our presented dynamic models and modern macro econometric models with disequilibrium both in the labor and the goods markets. One of our objectives is, therefore, to narrow the gap between theoretical and applied structural macrodynamic model building. We hope that the book will be a useful reference for all researchers, academic teachers and practitioners of macroeconomic and macro econometric model building who are interested in economic dynamics, independently of whether they use equilibrium or disequilibrium methods in their own research. We base this hope on the fact that our approach contains a number of unique features. The emphasis on the identification and analysis of the basic feedback mechanisms at work in modern macro economies. A detailed study of the partial as well as integrated dynamic interaction between these feedback mechanisms that consti tute the interdependence of markets and sectors of the modern macro economy. The rela tionship between the macroeconomic framework of our working model and the Walrasian, Non-Walrasian and New-Keynesian reformulations of macroeconomics.
Bringing together a collection of previously published work, this book provides a discussion of major considerations relating to the construction of econometric models that work well to explain economic phenomena, predict future outcomes and be useful for policy-making. Analytical relations between dynamic econometric structural models and empirical time series MVARMA, VAR, transfer function, and univariate ARIMA models are established with important application for model-checking and model construction. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are also presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision and the Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that features demand, supply and entry equations for major sectors of economies is analysed and described. This volume will prove invaluable to professionals, academics and students alike.
As large physical capital stock projects need long periods to be built, a time-to-build specification is incorporated in factor demand models. Time-to-build and adjustment costs dynamics are identified since by the first moving average dynamics, whereas by the latter autoregressive dynamics are induced. Empirical evidence for time-to-build is obtained from data from the Dutch construction industry and by the estimation result from the manufacturing industry of six OECD countries.
The dynamic single product inventory problems treated here have costs that depend on changes in production rates as well as on the rates themselves and on inventory levels. All but one of the models have stochastic demand and backorder excess demand. A discrete time model in which smoothing costs are proportional to the difference between production rates in successive periods is shown to have an optimal policy in which production decreases as inventory increases; uniform bounds are given for the optimal policy parameter values. The model generalizes to one in which employment level and production rate are separate variables. A generalized stationary analysis is given for the simpler case. When units are made sequentially in time and demand is a renewal process, the presence of smoothing costs leads to optimal policies for the minimization of average cost per unit time which are based on only two parameters and which are easily administered. Analogous results are obtained for a similar discrete time model and the resulting stationary distributions of state variables is given for the cases of demand being a Poisson process and either constant or exponentially distributed production times. (Author).
This three-volume handbook includes state-of-the-art surveys in different areas of neoclassical production economics. Volumes 1 and 2 cover theoretical and methodological issues only. Volume 3 includes surveys of empirical applications in different areas like manufacturing, agriculture, banking, energy and environment, and so forth.